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ElectricTundra
P85D AP1
Just that it's a BEV will keep the value up on AP1 and pre-AP Tesla's.
At some point ICE cars will begin to take a significant hit because people will begin having stronger preferences for BEV's. They will have gotten use to the idea, will have been seeing more and more on the road and in showrooms, will know someone who has one and likes it, and range anxiety will have been largely eliminated. People will be comfortable with the idea of a BEV. The advantages of BEV's will begin to significantly outweigh the real and presumed disadvantages.
At some point ICE cars will begin to seem old tech to a majority of the population (2020?). Gas stations will increasingly struggle and slowly begin to close (more BEV's, PHEV's, people driving less, etc.). Gas prices will rise creating an even greater BEV incentive? Will people seeing closed up 'old tech' gas stations have an impact? Will having to drive farther to get gas have an impact?
At some point ICE cars will begin to take a significant hit because people will begin having stronger preferences for BEV's. They will have gotten use to the idea, will have been seeing more and more on the road and in showrooms, will know someone who has one and likes it, and range anxiety will have been largely eliminated. People will be comfortable with the idea of a BEV. The advantages of BEV's will begin to significantly outweigh the real and presumed disadvantages.
At some point ICE cars will begin to seem old tech to a majority of the population (2020?). Gas stations will increasingly struggle and slowly begin to close (more BEV's, PHEV's, people driving less, etc.). Gas prices will rise creating an even greater BEV incentive? Will people seeing closed up 'old tech' gas stations have an impact? Will having to drive farther to get gas have an impact?
78 is horrible. that car brand new (2016) was 126...they're about 12k off...
I went to carmax because I was told they were the place to go for appraisal
Tesla will match Carmax price
This graph is a great illustration of your point ... both AP1 and AP2 will perform far better than a comparable ICE vehicle.
View attachment 228762
I question the accuracy of that chart and dislike seeing it posted. I should have paid $77k for my 40k mile used car according to it. I actually paid $58k with a CPO warranty. That puts the line for a Tesla below those other cars. Right now I can buy an 85D CPO from Tesla with 26k miles for $68k, which also puts Tesla's depreciation line below the other cars.
The data from that chart was based on LIST price, not actual sales price. 50 best San Francisco used Tesla Model S for sale savings from $3,659
Actually, the approach taken by Autolist of using list prices likely understates Tesla's depreciation advantage because it does not include the $7500 tax credit (plus state tax credits for many purchasers). As Electrek noted:
It’s an especially impressive achievement when you consider the $7,500 federal tax rebate. A Tesla Model S loses $7,500 in value the first day solely based on the fact that no one would buy the car used without a discount equivalent to the federal tax rebate. Otherwise, they would buy it new from Tesla and get the rebate themselves. State rebates only make the handicap worse for Tesla. Tesla Model S retains its value better than gas-powered cars in its segment, losing only 28% after 50k miles
In addition, discounts off list price cannot be the explanation as you suggest. If they were, then the slopes of the depreciation curves would be the same, with all of Tesla's advantage showing up in the first data point. But in fact Tesla's advantage grows larger as time goes on, as can be seen from the chart:
I haven't seen any studies to the contrary so far but if I've missed something please let me know.
People like referring to their one-off situations but I think the 1.6 million data points analyzed by Autolist is very likely to be more reliable than anecdotes.
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Well, the 1.6 million data points were not Tesla related specifically, but the data they use to predict the future depreciation models. Lots of data doesn't necessarily mean relevant data.
I wish they had listed how many actual EV sales data points were involved and where they came from. Many used car dealers would list Teslas at crazy high prices early on out of ignorance, and that must have skewed the data since they used list price. Where that same dealer wouldn't list a 7-series at some crazy price because they have years of data on those.
Which is why they should have used final sales price instead. Reflects what people are actually paying for cars, not just what they are listed at. List price is too variable. When I get a market comp for my house before putting it up for sale, I want that info based on sales prices, not list prices.
I don't think that explanation is very likely. The Autolist data was from 2016, not early on. Also, in an even more recent report, Autolist found that the Model S sold faster than its peers, which would be odd if they were priced too high. The same report also found that the average selling price of the Model S exceeded expectations by 5% -- far higher than even the best performing models of other manufacturers.
Survey ranks used Tesla Model S as #1 in retained value and fastest selling among peers
50 Best Used Tesla Model S for Sale, Savings from $3,079
The most recent Autolist study was based on data from 10 million used car sales from April 2016 to January 2017 -- so a massive amount of data.
Shock-On-T
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I purchased an inventory HW1 MS in 9/2016. The sharp discounts seen at that time were a clear indication that the new hardware was about to be rolled out. So I made the conscious decision not to pass up the savings. While I do believe that HW2 will surpass HW1 relatively soon, I don't regret my decision. I use AP1 frequently but the car is simply a blast to drive manually. Therefore, I'm not sure my driving pattern would be any different in the HW2 version. Bottom line is as others have said, If cost is not the issue, then go with the most recent iteration, but I find it hard to believe you won't be thrilled with a HW1 car. I think that is why the resale values are holding up better than I thought they would. Besides, HW3 will be out there when you are ready for the next Tesla.
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