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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"
- Thread starter dckiwi
- Start date
Will HW3 be provided to FSD purchasers has been the biggest concern I've seen in either current FSD owners or those considering getting it before the price goes up.
So I definitely think its worth mentioning in multiple threads to make sure people have seen it
It's almost as big of a ticket item as P3D- people getting track mode. It had to be repeated over, and over to finally convince them that it was for real.
There was a time when ”3 months maybe, 6 month definitely” was plastered all over the internet too... and not as a joke.
These statements buy time and calm minds for a while but how many of them materialize is historically another matter.
Personally I think HW3 retrofits eventually happen but who knows for sure.
I do wonder how binding that twitter post is regarding HW3.
The people who have a HW2/HW2.5 vehicle have until Monday to decide whether to get FSD. A big part of that is convincing themselves that they'll get HW3. That way they don't have to worry about missing out on new SW features that utilize HW3.
The only one at Tesla who is saying HW3 will come with FSD is Elon with that latest tweet.
But, it's not on the order page for the FSD.
it's not on anything the global sales team has said.
To me that statement Elon said is binding in a way that the 3-6 months tweet on feature differentiating isn't. It is because we know exactly what is promised. It's not just some vague tweet.
If I didn't have FSD I'd probably be jumping on buying it with that statement. Plus I wouldn't want to be stuck with HW2.5 when Tesla has HW3.0 because I know Tesla quickly puts old stuff on the backburner.
I don't see that tweet as buying time because it wasn't needed. He could have simply repeated what the global sales team had been saying. They were telling people that it would come with a HW swap if needed which is much different.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
I disagree there was anything vague about the 3-6 months tweet. It was clearly about features unique to FSD buyers and Elon literally gave a definite timeline.
If you wish to get as many people as possible to inject cash into your company in Q1, buying time could well be useful — say something that assures people to inject that money now and worry about the rest later... that could be a scenario.
Frankly I think Tesla knows those retrofits are going to be expensive. I fully expect them to wait until the cash is there to do them and buy time until...
I see the tweet as needing to raise money. He first cut prices to get people to buy FSD at a lower price even through after the sale the price was supposed to go up. Now he is telling everyone that the price is going up again to once again cause urgency that they need to buy it now before the increase.
There are two ways of looking at the pricing events of AP/FSD over the last 2 weeks.
This whole fiasco was calculated as a way to raise money.
This whole fiasco was due to incompetency (bad execution, bad communication, lack of preparedness, etc).
I pick the incompetency one.
I'll know in 3-6 months if I was right or not.
There are two ways of looking at the pricing events of AP/FSD over the last 2 weeks.
This whole fiasco was calculated as a way to raise money.
This whole fiasco was due to incompetency (bad execution, bad communication, lack of preparedness, etc).
I pick the incompetency one.
I'll know in 3-6 months if I was right or not.
How will you know?
Soda Popinski
Member
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Hanlon's Razor.
”Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.” - Grey’s Law
What features? No one knew what those features were.
The entire thing was vague.
Elon has a tendency to tweet vague things that's anyone's guess as to what they mean. It's like when Elon tweets "Regulatory approved Smart Summons", and everyone was going WHAT REGULATORS??
As to retrofits. It's certainly going to be expensive, and won't leave a lot of room to profit from the $2K upgrade price (from EAP).
I'm not sure it will even be possible for HW2 vehicles due to the complications with it. How would that even work if Tesla got some kind of regulatory approval for something with HW2.5 sensor suite, but HW2 sensor suite doesn't have the same stuff.
It actually made more sense that they were going to water down FSD to get it to fit HW2/HW2.5 to avoid upgrading them. Then they could have made a profit off the "special deal" as that would have been pure profit.
but, now they've locked themselves into upgrading ever FSD owner to HW3 which seriously eats into profits due to the "special deal" nonsense.
Plus what exactly does one do with 200K+ worth of Drive PX2 computers? Maybe they can host some massive robotics challenge and give them away for free.
If Tesla delivers on the promise to give FSD owners HW3.
The whole thing was essentially a HW3 sale.
In fact my initial thought was they were trying to get as many people away onto HW3 as possible. So it made sense in that regard.
Full Self-Driving ”features” that ”noticeably depart from Enhanced Autopilot features” of course. We may not know what those features would be but the tweet was clear there would be such features — and we know so far there are none.
In my view that tells us nothing about Tesla’s motivations in Q1. If they planned all this to be a short-term money grab (both from customers and sales force comp) to inject cash into the company, your measurement would simply mean they got away with it.
If it all was simply a mistake, why not correct immediately... instead they ware waiting almost a full week and reminding people about the fact...
This is a demand lever, just in time for a frantic end-of-Q1 delivery rush.
It tells us the motivation of the tweet by Elon.
This is all in reference to the tweet Elon made about the price going back up, and about the urgency for people to buy it now. That urgency is largely driven by HW3 being included as part of FSD as it's steal of a deal. If the tweet is absolute bull then I expect to see excuses in 3-6 months, and no HW3 to speak of.
Now I do see your point in that it's a short-term money grab. Sometimes people do that to push the ball further down the court. But, if you take into account all the changes over the last 2 weeks there was such a morale hit of both the company and the customers that it makes ZERO sense. Tesla can't easily repair the damage done over the last 2 weeks.
I've been on TMC for a long time, and nothing of this magnitude has ever happened with so many long term customers upset.
So no I do not see this as anything more than incompetency.
It could also be both. A plan that backfired somewhat.
We don’t know and I’m afraid I don’t think your measurement will tell either. I feel the simplest explanation here is, given Tesla’s past, this all was a demand lever. That has been the simplest explanation for rapid changes near end of quarter for a long time.
I of course agree people are getting tired of it all and the general sentiment is getting more and more sour.
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