Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[mongo]

No, I am asking whether their ability to be autonomous existed at all (not its reliability level).

If it drive the route without interventions, then I'd say that was autonomous (new driver). If it did it without interventions most of the time then I'd say it was autonomous (more mature driver). Then route in rain/ traffic/ snow...

Fixed routes are always going to be easier than general solutions, so I'm equally impressed by anyone's demo using them.

 

[electronblue]

If it drive the route without interventions, then I'd say that was autonomous (new driver). If it did it without interventions most of the time then I'd say it was autonomous (more mature driver). Then route in rain/ traffic/ snow...

Fixed routes are always going to be easier than general solutions, so I'm equally impressed by anyone's demo using them.

You are still missing my point. For the car to be an autonomous robotaxi, it will have to do more than drive the route without interventions.

It will have to be able to react to events autonomously. These reactions must be implemented in the system for it to be autonomous. If the system just simply follows the road and navigation, and avoids hitting cars, that is not autonomous driving, even if it all happens automatically. That would be a good driver’s aid, but that would not be an autonomous car.

For example, one important reaction for an autonomous car is the ability to reach what SAE calls minimum risk condition. This means at the end of drive (or at the disruption of drive) the car will drive itself to a safe place such as a parking spot or the side of the read as applicable. This is an important building block of autonomy, without which there is no autonomy.

Forget about the reliability of this happening, since we are talking prototypes. Just the point that the feature must exist for it to be an autonomous robotaxi prototype. We don’t really know if what we saw was an autonomous car prototype or just the next version of a driver’s aid in this regard.

Waymo has demonstrated this feature implemented. As far as I know Tesla has no demonstration of this?

 

[diplomat33]

No, @diplomat33, you are very mistaken in your interpreration. While it is true ”feature complete” is a software development concept, it is fully compatible with what SAE says about the levels in J3016.

But most importantly you make a huge mistake in how SAE defines reaching its levels. SAE clearly defines Level as design intent, not reliability. If feature complete does not meet Level 5 feature requirements by end of 2019, then Musk was wrong (or worse, lied), because it is fully possible even on a prototype level.

”Levels are assigned, rather than measured, and reflect the design intent for the driving automation system feature as defined by its manufacturer.”

”it is incorrect to classify a level 4 design-intended ADS feature equipped on a test vehicle as level 2 simply because on-road testing requires a test driver to supervise the feature while engaged, and to intervene if necessary to maintain safe operation.”

”An ADS feature designed by its manufacturer to level 5 would not automatically be demoted to level 4 simply by virtue of encountering a particular road on which it is unable to operate the vehicle.”

So it is perfectly possible for Tesla to have Level 5 design-intended prototype vehicles in operation with safety drivers by end of 2019, if their design-intent is ”Level 5 no geofence”. And they certainly can be ”feature complete”, as defined by traditional software development understanding of the word, even if this is not something they could yet ship as Level 5.

Now whether or not Tesla truly is ”feature complete” for Level 5 no geofence features by end of 2019, is of course an open question and we can not know if Musk was truthful or correct in this assessment at Autonomy Investor Day. But he did say it.

By the way, I would also accept a Level 2 design-intent with every feature needed for eventual Level 5 implemented on a prototype level (from Tesla by end of 2019), as feature complete too, since software development definition of the word does not discern between design-intent. But ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” can not suddenly mean lacking features that a Level 5 car obviously would need.

How disappointing that you continue to misrepresent both Musk’s statement and my position this way.

Elon did not say Level 5 by the end of 2019, nor did I. He said Tesla would be ”Level 5 (no geofence) feature complete” by the end of 2019. My position is simply one of taking Musk for his word.

If something if ”feature complete” — assuming any traditional understanding is followed — all the features for the target outcome have been implemented, but they do not yet have the maturity for general availability. In the case of SAE Levels this obviously can mean prototypes that do not have the reliability to work without a safety driver.

It is very simple. Either Tesla has every feature Level 5 needs implemented by end of 2019, which is what Musk claimed according to the traditional understanding of the words feature complete, or they do not in which case Musk was mistaken.

I am certainly not trying to misrepresent you or Elon. Sorry if you feel that way.

I am saying FC has the design intent of L5 and I do think that is part of what Elon was hinting at. You are interpreting Elon's words as FC will have all the features of L5.

But I have my doubts that FC will really have all the features of L5. Now maybe Elon thinks FC will have all the features of L5 but I am skeptical. Just getting intersections and traffic lights done is a long way from having all the features of L5.

 

[electronblue]

I am certainly not trying to misrepresent you or Elon. Sorry if you feel that way.

I am saying FC has the design intent of L5 and I think that is what Elon was hinting at too. You are interpreting elon's words as FC will have all the features of L5.

But I have my doubts that FC will really have all the features of L5. Now maybe Elon thinks FC will have all the features of L5 but I am skeptical.

What else could feature complete Level 5 no geofence mean, but having all features for Level 5 no geofence?

That is literally what feature complete means.

If Musk meant something else, he was misleading everyone.

 

[diplomat33]

What else could feature complete Level 5 no geofence mean, but having all features for Level 5 no geofence?

That is literally what feature complete means.

If Musk meant something else, he was misleading everyone.

Well, it is possible that "feature complete L5 no geofence" refers to the features on the website and that it has the design intent of L5. In other words, when Elon says "feature complete L5 no geofence", he is is simply promising the features on the website with no geofencing or ODD restrictions. I think that would be a reasonable interpretation. After all, Elon has repeatedly mentioned intersections and traffic lights as the last features left before "feature complete" and those features are listed on the website under FSD as coming later this year. And Elon has also been adamant that there will be no geofencing. So I think it makes sense.

I think it is very possible that by the end of this year, Tesla will release the last big features on the FSD page (enhanced summon, traffic light and stop sign and enable NOA on city streets that can handle intersections) and Elon will declare it "Feature complete L5 no geofence". And there will be massive disappointment and you all will say that Elon lied and misled again because that's NOT "Feature Complete L5 no geofence". And you will be right that it is not. But I think Elon will firmly believe that it is. How do we reconcile that disconnect? I propose the theory that Elon may have a different definition of "Feature Complete L5 no geofence" than we do. His definition of "feature complete L5 no geofence" may be just the FSD features on the website with no geofencing or ODD restrictions. But our definition of "feature complete L5 no geofence" is all the features required for L5. So according to his definition, it will be. But according to our definition it won't be.

I am trying to keep my expectations reasonable so I won't be disappointed. I am expecting traffic light and stop sign, and intersections by the end of this year or early next year. That way if we get these features by Dec-Jan, my expectations will be met. I am not expecting true "feature complete L5 no geofencing". That way, when it does not come, I won't be disappointed.

I think it is also very possible that Elon underestimates the features needed for L5. He may think that the FSD features on the website actually are all that is needed for L5. It might explain why he seems to think that robotaxis are right around the corner. He seems to think that NOA can do highway self-driving now and once we get traffic light and stop signs and intersections done, and we get the reliability high enough, the car will also be able to self-drive on local roads so bingo, we will have robotaxis. At least, that is kinda how I hear what Elon says. If true, it is a very simplistic view of L5.

Again, I am not an apologist for Elon. I am merely trying to provide a theory. I don't think Elon is deliberately lying. But I think it is possible that he has a simplistic and overly optimistic view of what L5 really is. I say this because Elon talks as if getting traffic lights, stop signs and intersections done is all that is really needed to be "Feature Complete L5 no geofence" but anyone can look up what Waymo is doing or read the SAE report to see that L5 requires a lot more than that.

At the end of day, I try to manage my expectations, because I will get whatever features I get and I need to live with that and be able to enjoy my car.

 

[willow_hiller]

I think it is also very possible that Elon underestimates the features needed for L5. He may think that the FSD features on the website actually are all that is needed for L5.

If Elon thinks that "Highway NOA" and "City NOA" encompass the entirety of FSD, that reminds me of a joke about two books containing absolutely everything:

 

[diplomat33]

If Elon thinks that "Highway NOA" and "City NOA" encompass the entirety of FSD, that reminds me of a joke about two books containing absolutely everything:

View attachment 427842

Yes, I do think that Elon thinks that all of FSD is "highway NOA" + "City NOA". It would fit with everything he has said. It would explain why he said that "Highway NOA" was FSD now. And it would explain why he says that his dev car can mostly do intersections and traffic lights now, so he thinks "feature complete L5 no geofence" will be done by the end of this year.

I would not be surprised if Tesla released "City NOA" and then Elon declared that "Feature Complete L5 no geofence" is now done and the next step is just to improve reliability to 99.9999% and then the cars will be robotaxis.

 

[2019 M S]

Does this mean that a Tesla vehicle will need to have Hardware 3 in oder to have full self driving capability? I just purchased a MS that was built in March of 2019 with H2 and was told it would be able to handle the full upgrade for self driving when it's ready...

 

[diplomat33]

Does this mean that a Tesla vehicle will need to have Hardware 3 in order to have full self driving capability?

Most likely, yes.

I just purchased a MS that was built in March of 2019 with H2 and was told it would be able to handle the full upgrade for self driving when it's ready...

If you purchase the FSD package on the website, Tesla will upgrade you to the new FSD computer.

 

[electronblue]

Well, it is possible that "feature complete L5 no geofence" refers to the features on the website and that it has the design intent of L5. In other words, when Elon says "feature complete L5 no geofence", he is is simply promising the features on the website with no geofencing or ODD restrictions. I think that would be a reasonable interpretation.

This is the part where we disagree. I think that would be a totally dishonest answer from him, given he was asked — at an investory event no less — what people can expect from feature complete at the end of 2019 and he concurs with ”Level 5 no geofence”. In no way can that reasonably be interpreted as ”actually I meant an FSD list we have on the website, not Level 5 no geofence”.

That would have been a lie from Tesla/Musk. I hope it isn’t.

I am trying to keep my expectations reasonable so I won't be disappointed. I am expecting traffic light and stop sign, and intersections by the end of this year or early next year. That way if we get these features by Dec-Jan, my expectations will be met. I am not expecting true "feature complete L5 no geofencing". That way, when it does not come, I won't be disappointed.

This is a perfectly reasonable position from you and probably more optimistic than I am. However, if your position is the outcome, in my view either Tesla would have had to fail in their 2019 goal or Musk lied.

 

[wcorey]

Let's just be clear. Waymo has a demonstrated, working taxi service in a limited area. Tesla has nothing but Musk's BS and some janky level 2 driving aids.

Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality of the situation.

Apples and Oranges - to be blunt.

 

[2019 M S]

Most likely, yes.



If you purchase the FSD package on the website, Tesla will upgrade you to the new FSD computer.

Thank you! I did purchased the FSD package for 6K. I assume the upgrade requires a visit to Tesla? Do you know what's involved in the upgrade?

 

[wcorey]

Thank you! I did purchased the FSD package for 6K. I assume the upgrade requires a visit to Tesla? Do you know what's involved in the upgrade?

No, it does not. The mobile service tech will make the change in about 30 mins. Tesla is trying to reserve Service Centers for action requiring the car to be put on a lift.

 

[diplomat33]

This is the part where we disagree. I think that would be a totally dishonest answer from him, given he was asked — at an investory event no less — what people can expect from feature complete at the end of 2019 and he concurs with ”Level 5 no geofence”. In no way can that reasonably be interpreted as ”actually I meant an FSD list we have on the website, not Level 5 no geofence”.

That would have been a lie from Tesla/Musk. I hope it isn’t.

If Elon thinks that the features on the website are indeed good enough for "feature complete L5 no geofence" then he would not see it as a lie. But of course, it could come across as a lie to the rest of us.

This discussion is a lot like the discussion about the meaning of "full self-driving". Tesla lists a bunch of features as FSD even though most people would not consider them to be FSD. I know a lot of folks consider the label of "full self-driving" to be false advertising.

This is a perfectly reasonable position from you and probably more optimistic than I am. However, if you position is the outcome, in my view either Tesla would have had to fail in their 2019 goal or Musk lied.

Get ready then to be disappointed and crushed again. Based on your definition of "feature complete L5 no geofence" as all the features for L5, it is nearly 100% certainty that you will say that Tesla failed or Elon lied, come Jan 2020.

Thank you! I did purchased the FSD package for 6K. I assume the upgrade requires a visit to Tesla? Do you know what's involved in the upgrade?

I think the Mobile Service can come to you to do the upgrade. The upgrade is a just swap of the computers. Basically, they go behind your glove box, pull out the old computer and plug in a new computer.

 

[EVNow]

No, at the Autonomy Investor Day Musk clearly said feature complete by end of 2019 means Level 5 (no geofence) feature complete.

Now of course that means on prototype level, like Uber drives Level 4 prototype cars with safety drivers, not production level without drivers. The Uber’s (as unreliable as they are) are still Level 4 — and Musk’s announcement clearly was Level 5.

​

This is the part where we disagree. I think that would be a totally dishonest answer from him, given he was asked — at an investory event no less — what people can expect from feature complete at the end of 2019 and he concurs with ”Level 5 no geofence”. In no way can that reasonably be interpreted as ”actually I meant an FSD list we have on the website, not Level 5 no geofence”.

That would have been a lie from Tesla/Musk. I hope it isn’t.

This is the kind of parsing that happens in political partisan fights. This is also the reason politicians and CEOs (is there a difference ?) don't give yes or no answers.

Saying "yes" (as I've said before, a bad hot take) is not the same as clearly talking about level 5.

That was a question that had two parts. "Level 5" and "no geofencing". Musk has been talking about no geofencing for a while - and likely that is what he said "yes" to. We can't interpret the yes to mean only one thing - yes to both parts of the question.

Anyway, as I've said before Musk should stop giving hot takes. Shorts will always misuse such answers.

 

[diplomat33]

That was just a question that had two parts. Level 5 and no geofencing. Musk has been talking about no geofencing for a while - and likely that is what he said "yes" to.​

This. Elon has been adamant about no geofencing and no ODD restrictions which does satisfy the ODD requirement of L5. So when he was asked about "L5 no geofence", he said "yes". That is probably what he was thinking. Plus, Elon probably thinks that "NOA highway" AND "City NOA" are good enough as a skeleton to build a L5 prototype. But I can totally see how folks like @electronblue would hear "feature complete L5 no geofence" and think that it means all of the features for L5. His is not an completely unreasonable interpretation of what Elon said. It's just an interpretation that will get him very disappointed when Tesla does not deliver what he thinks is coming.

 

[EVNow]

Let's just be clear. Waymo has a demonstrated, working taxi service in a limited area. Tesla has nothing but Musk's BS and some janky level 2 driving aids.

Sorry to be so blunt, but that's the reality of the situation.

Tesla has freeway NOA that works fairly well. Waymo doesn't work in my city.

I bet we'll get City NOA on Tesla before Waymo works in my city.

 

[EVNow]

If Elon thinks that "Highway NOA" and "City NOA" encompass the entirety of FSD, that reminds me of a joke about two books containing absolutely everything:

View attachment 427842

But seriously - what else does FSD involve ?

As long as "City NOA" means city, suburb, rural (or how ever you want to classify unrestricted roads), it does cover the road system.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

If Elon thinks that the features on the website are indeed good enough for "feature complete L5 no geofence" then he would not see it as a lie. But of course, it could come across as a lie to the rest of us.

This discussion is a lot like the discussion about the meaning of "full self-driving". Tesla lists a bunch of features as FSD even though most people would not consider them to be FSD. I know a lot of folks consider the label of "full self-driving" to be false advertising.

Between you and @electronblue you've spent a lot of time debating the term "feature complete" but what you're actually disagreeing on is functionality. The difference between the two in software design and implementation is critical, and when it comes to generalized autonomy specifically, features can be static (like a check list), but functionality (i.e., capability) isn't. For simplicity, think of a feature as the intention to do something via a particular tool-set, and function being the actual measurable outcome out how well that tool set does what is intended.

Tesla may very well deliver all of the features of FSD this year, meaning the right combination of hardware and software to be capable of autonomy without driver intervention in most theoretical situations, but it's highly unlikely they will have implemented the functionality to do these things well enough for regulatory approval or even to a level generally acceptable by Joe Public.

From personal experience in the field of Natural Language Processing and Understanding, the gap between delivery of features in software Vs practical applicability of that code and then desired outcome, is measured in years or even decades in this field.

 

[diplomat33]

But seriously - what else does FSD involve ?

As long as "City NOA" means city, suburb, rural (or how ever you want to classify unrestricted roads), it does cover the road system.

I definitely agree that "Highway NOA" AND "City NOA" do cover the entire road part of the ODD. Which is why Elon probably considers it "Feature complete L5 no geofence". L5's ODD covers all roads, all the time, and all weather.

The issue is that there are a lot of sub-features, as you well know, that still need to be done as part of "City NOA" before it can be considered L5 in reality.