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Elon in Munich on Jan 30, 2014

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@Fango

I think many threads on this forum prove that range is important to EV drivers. "I made it but that was close", "I didn't want to drive it down into the last 10% SoC", "I want some buffer when my battery degrades" and so on.
I see your point of battery size not growing further and further. Gas tanks in ICE vehicles could provide 1000 miles of range easily, but they seldom do. Instead the size corresponds with gas mileage, giving the vehicle a "convenient" range for what it is meant to do. Evs will reach a similar point, but it's hard to predict where average range demand will settle.

In all of those examples, the driver did make it ;) In which case, are we paying for range or are we paying for the illusion that we could driver farther should we need to? I actually do like the roadster response to this, which is an extra 10% reserve you can activate for range mode, which is normally invisible because its healthier for the battery that way. I think people just need to get to the point where they are okay driving their car down to 1% soc. A lot of newer drivers aren't comfortable with this, but it's fine if you only do it every so often, and if you know how to drive your car more efficiently so you can squeeze a bit more range out of a low battery by slowing down etc. This is why I think when the public in general gets more ev experience, they will be more comfortable with lower ranges.

And yes, that's what I mean, that EVs will reach a point of equilibrium. Its just that my prediction is that it will settle at lower than current tesla ranges. Gas cars have already settled at around 300 miles per tank, which is around what most cars do on a tank, which I think is why that was the magic number for the S.
 
Let's not use the argument of noone drives 300 miles a day often. In winter slush at -15C the car will do about 170-200 miles. That is a distance that is far more easy to cover in a day. Superchargers can alleviate this, but their density needs years to come around to this level of comfort. My closest supercharger is > 2000 miles away so that can't be an argument. In real cold winter I cannot take the simple trip between Tallinn-Tartu and return (i.e. I went to a dogshow where I parked on a field, no charging, for 2h and then returned home). It's 110 miles each way and it was a close call at -5C (started at 100% SoC, finished at 4%, far into the charge now region). At -18C or stronger wind I couldn't make it no matter that the total distance is only 220 miles. In the summer I wouldn't worry at all, it's the winter extreme conditions that make the requirements. Hence a 400 mile or 500 mile pack would be a 300 mile pack in winter and indeed should satisfy most people. My January consumption was 300 Wh/km (not mile) and I wasn't flooring it, I was doing short trips in -20C. Best I could average on a road trip was 250Wh/km. Add AWD to it and it's the perfect car to have for all weather conditions in a large region of countries etc. You cannot only contemplate the world from Californian point of view where it's always warm and the question is cooling, not heating...
 
My closest supercharger is > 2000 miles away so that can't be an argument.
That will change, don't you worry :)

300 optimal miles range is not high enough to be in no-worries land. IMHO 600 miles on the other hand is already deep into it.
500 miles is such a poetic number that I would bet it will become a top of the class EV range offering. And about 250 optimal miles for more price-conscious EVs. Maybe not in this decade but ultimately.
The range should be big enough to enable skipping SC locations.
 
I don't know If I posted the stats in this thread or another, but in the USA something like .01% of cars drive over 300 miles in a given day. And that is a guess since the stats don't go all the way out to 300, since there is a negligible number of cars which do over 160 or so. That is what I mean when I say "most people" or "nobody". It would be folly to make a car only for the .01% use cases.

And if we are talking about optimal numbers, the S is a 431 mile range EV ;)
 
I have so far owned 7 RWD vehicles (5 of which I have driven in winter), four 4WD/AWD vehicles, and 2 FWD. The AWD include a Nissan Murano. I would come to the opposite conclusion; all of the AWD/4WD vehicles are superior in extremely slippery conditions. I wouldn't even rate the Murano at the bottom of that category. (One additional data point... I'm currently sharing a rusty old Subaru Legacy for snowcross and ice racing - it wins as the best handling winter car I've ever driven. I doubt it's that great in summer, but it's absolutely awesome on snow and ice.)

Unfortunately, on several occasions I'm had my AWD Murano get stuck in the snow and needed towing. It wasn't even more than a foot of snow. Quite sad. I was VERY disappointed with the Murano in the snow. Supposedly there's a weird design issue with the CVT and VDC. I don't fully understand it. It's sounds like these two issues Strange CVT/AWD behavior in deep snow - Nissan Murano Forum and VDC Issue in SNOW - Nissan Murano Forum . Basically, on multiple occasions this has happened to me, if you get stuck in the snow, and you try to rock yourself out, a minute or so of this and if the wheels spins then it seems to disable the transmission completely and thus you can no longer try to drive forward or reverse and now you're REALLY stuck. The wheels will no longer turn at all and get 'locked'. The tow truck guy said this was common in Murano's and said it has something to do with the transmission getting put into a safe-mode or something like that , in other words it was 'designed to disable itself' to prevent damage to the transmission. The only way to "unlock" the wheels is to have it towed out a few feet. That is it. A quick chain, pulled back 4 or 5 feet, and now my transmission was "unlocked" and I could drive again. HORRIBLE design. Not very helpful having an AWD SUV if it disables itself in the snow. Also, the whole fleet of Murano CVT transmissions ended up being defective anyway for a separate issue. Will never buy a Nissan again.

On the other hand, my MS handling snow driving just fine, and driving past other SUVS (Yukon) and a pickup truck that had gotten stuck and they were getting towed as I was driving past it. It seems my experiences are different than yours.
 
And if we are talking about optimal numbers, the S is a 431 mile range EV ;)

Really useful if you want to drive from Roanoke, VA to Cleveland, OH at a steady 19 mph. In the summer.

300 real world miles in dead of Norwegian winter allows 200 mile trips without range anxiety which is really useful. Just look at Bjorn's videos.

110 kWh battery pack allows supercharging at optimal speeds for longer amount of time/miles and better performance.

People buying $90k-$130k sedans want cars without compromises. And Teslas have to compete with the ICE competition.

BMW M6, MB AMG CLS, and Audi S7 are doing 0-60 in ~3.4 seconds and 500 mile plus range.
 
Really useful if you want to drive from Roanoke, VA to Cleveland, OH at a steady 19 mph. In the summer.

300 real world miles in dead of Norwegian winter allows 200 mile trips without range anxiety which is really useful. Just look at Bjorn's videos.

110 kWh battery pack allows supercharging at optimal speeds for longer amount of time/miles and better performance.

People buying $90k-$130k sedans want cars without compromises. And Teslas have to compete with the ICE competition.

BMW M6, MB AMG CLS, and Audi S7 are doing 0-60 in ~3.4 seconds and 500 mile plus range.

The only reason anyone has started quoting range for gas cars is because they want to make themselves look better than the superior EV competition - and this effort has been led by VW, who have been the least supportive of the large manufacturers when it comes to EVs, as they are doubling down on TDI. And an M6 gets 16 mpg and has an 18.5 gallon tank from a quick google search. That is not 500 miles, it's even just under 300 miles. I would check the other cars, but I suspect the story is the same for them. People tend to make up huge numbers for gas cars because the numbers are obfuscated in gas cars - in an EV, you have a nice round number you can look at in front of you, and this is rare for a gas car. The reason it's rare for a gas car is because nobody really cares about range in a gas car. The only reason you would want more range in a gas car is so that you can go more days without having to go to a gas station, which is a burdensome experience - and yet, almost zero manufacturers put 500 mile tanks in their cars because even though it would be easy for them to do so, it would be silly. Also, you don't spend days away from fueling stations in an EV, because most people will park it at one every night.

As I already mentioned, giving a little more range so that you can have 300 miles in all conditions might make some sort of sense for 1% of drivers. But Tesla isn't making a car for 1% of drivers, or at least that isn't the intent to only sell to 1% of drivers. The intent is to make a car with the most appeal they can get, to the broadest audience they can appeal to. And most people aren't going to want to pay tens of thousands of dollars for superfluous batteries.

Also, Bjorn's video shows that even in the harshest conditions, he was able to get 255 miles. If the rated range is 265 miles and he's getting 255 in Norwegian winter, then I do not understand what people's problem is with Model S range. In my personal experience, driving long distances, I have been able to get close to ideal (not rated) range numbers with normal freeway driving in Southern California in both the Roadster and Model S. And when we compare it to the vast majority of cars which have "range" clustered around 300 (not 500) miles per tank, this does not seem unacceptable. Especially because EVs don't even need to have "range" similar to gas cars per tank, for many reasons which have been correctly mentioned by other posters here.

Regardless, I have made my prediction and I encourage you to make note of it and see that it will be correct in the future, and I tend not to make predictions unless I'm pretty certain they'll happen. EVs will not have continually increasing range, even Tesla who have hung their hat on the "premium range" peg, and manufacturers across the board will prefer cost weight space and efficiency savings to superfluous range numbers except possibly in very niche products. The focus will be on quicker charging, as it already is.

edit: here is the data I referred to earlier, showing how many miles people drive on a daily basis, the graphs on the second page are the most instructive here http://research.microsoft.com/en-us...lications 2012/2012-01-0489 SAE published.pdf
 
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The reason it's rare for a gas car is because nobody really cares about range in a gas car.
And that is so only because gas stations are omni-present.
Once SC network is up and running and you cannot drive 100 miles without passing one, no one will care about range any more.

SuperChargers are the killer app that will kill gas-cars. Them being free is just icing on the cake.
 
I can see Tesla offering their top of the line models with a 500 mile pack at some point if energy density increases and price decreases as I expect.

Well, at the moment, Panasonic's 4Ah cells actually increase weight. OK if you're cutting cell count and can balance it with weight reduction from reduced integration, but not if you want to increase the pack size.
 
The only reason anyone has started quoting range for gas cars is because they want to make themselves look better than the superior EV competition - and this effort has been led by VW, who have been the least supportive of the large manufacturers when it comes to EVs, as they are doubling down on TDI. And an M6 gets 16 mpg and has an 18.5 gallon tank from a quick google search. That is not 500 miles, it's even just under 300 miles.


This. My E90 M3, driven in the city, got about 12 mpg. With a 16 gallon tank, that mean it had an absolute range of maybe 190 miles, but an effective range of about 170. On the highway it could touch 20 mpg, if driven gently, but that still meant an effective range of less than 300 miles for a trip.

For a trip to NYC from DC, that meant filling up right before I left and almost immediately upon arrival, and then doing it again on the way back if I did any driving around the city while I was up there.

With a dedicated home charger and Superchargers in Newark and Edison, the Model S is easily comparable to the M3 for that particular trip.

Would I like more range? Sure, all else equal. Ideally, if I had a car that had 100 miles extra range on top of what I've got, that would be outstanding. Would I pay extra for it? Would I want to add another 500 lbs? No, not really. As long as the Superchargers keep being built, that seems like a much better overall solution.
 
I sure hope that advancements in energy density go into reducing vehicle weight while keeping that 265 miles of EPA range. Model S at 4700lbs is way too heavy for a sedan. But I think we will start to see things change with Gen III platform, not earlier.
 
FANGO said:
The only reason anyone has started quoting range for gas cars is because they want to make themselves look better than the superior EV competition - and this effort has been led by VW, who have been the least supportive of the large manufacturers when it comes to EVs, as they are doubling down on TDI. And an M6 gets 16 mpg and has an 18.5 gallon tank from a quick google search. That is not 500 miles, it's even just under 300 miles.

Do another google search.

BMW M6 has 21.1 gallon tank and gets 22mpg highway 464 miles
Audi S7 has a 19.8 gallon tank and gets 27 mpg highway 534 miles
MB AMG CLS 21.1 gallon tank and gets 25 mpg highway 527 miles.


What matters for range is long distance travel. In other words highway mileage.

It does not matter who started quoting what. To convert non environmentalist ICE car owners Tesla will have to compete with similar cars in its price range.

Range matters. It is the first question I get from people when the topic of Tesla comes up.
 
Do another google search.

BMW M6 has 21.1 gallon tank and gets 22mpg highway 464 miles
Audi S7 has a 19.8 gallon tank and gets 27 mpg highway 534 miles
MB AMG CLS 21.1 gallon tank and gets 25 mpg highway 527 miles.


What matters for range is long distance travel. In other words highway mileage.

It does not matter who started quoting what. To convert non environmentalist ICE car owners Tesla will have to compete with similar cars in its price range.

Range matters. It is the first question I get from people when the topic of Tesla comes up.

It always comes up (not usually first) in the conversations I have about the car as well. If the people do not bring it up I make sure I do. I have yet to have anyone say 'Is that all'. Most are impressed when I tell them 265, real world driving closer to 200 at times.
I agree with your premise that additional range would be beneficial in competing 'head to head' with some of the ICE cars you mention but I would accept increased range only in the event that battery chemistry/efficiency improves (at same price level) or expense comes down on current battery technology.
 
It always comes up (not usually first) in the conversations I have about the car as well. If the people do not bring it up I make sure I do. I have yet to have anyone say 'Is that all'. Most are impressed when I tell them 265, real world driving closer to 200 at times.
I agree with your premise that additional range would be beneficial in competing 'head to head' with some of the ICE cars you mention but I would accept increased range only in the event that battery chemistry/efficiency improves (at same price level) or expense comes down on current battery technology.

The chemistry efficiency/cost has to improve for the Model E to work.

What Tesla ends up charging for the biggest battery pack in the Model S may not necessarily be tied directly to cost.
 
It always comes up (not usually first) in the conversations I have about the car as well. If the people do not bring it up I make sure I do. I have yet to have anyone say 'Is that all'. Most are impressed when I tell them 265, real world driving closer to 200 at times.

I have had the same experience many times. When I tell people what the EPA range number is, and that I can easily get well over 200 in my S85 in real life, people are stunned. They had no idea any EV can go that far between charges.

Then I tell them about the rapidly expanding SC network and they are blown away. They realize that over 200 is enough to make the car work as a "regular" car. This is a completely new idea to 99% of the people I talk to about Tesla.

This is one of the many reasons why I am so optimistic about the future of Tesla. Imagine what a serious marketing campaign will do for Model E demand. Tesla will be production-constrained, not demand-constrained, for at least a decade if they can hit their target of a $40K 200+ mile range EV that can access an SC network that by then will have blanketed the US, Europe, and China.
 
Fango -
After decades, I am more or less inured to people - mostly other Americans - treating Alaska, its denizens, and the circumstances of daily life there as being not statistical outliers but more like circus freaks.

Regardless, your constant thrumming of issues like normal range and normal driving habits has succeeded in getting under my skin, and I'm going to scratch that itch.

It is the Model S and its battery pack as presently configured that is what is on the margin right now. For Alaskans, it is a marginally acceptable vehicle. For West Texans, for a good portion of Montanans, for a great chunk of the 100th Meridian folks, it is the same. For me to drive from home to the single NEAREST town and back - Delta Jct., no great metropolis - requires careful driving. To go the one-way route to Fairbanks is the same, and it's a full charge (ie, overnight) to get back home. To get to Anchorage necessitates a mid-stop recharge. That is the kind of driving an auto company need address, not commuting to and from work on a Californian freeway.

If Tesla is to be a great company with great product, it needs address the margins. If not it is, ultimately, itself marginalized.
 
Fango -
After decades, I am more or less inured to people - mostly other Americans - treating Alaska, its denizens, and the circumstances of daily life there as being not statistical outliers but more like circus freaks.

Regardless, your constant thrumming of issues like normal range and normal driving habits has succeeded in getting under my skin, and I'm going to scratch that itch.

It is the Model S and its battery pack as presently configured that is what is on the margin right now. For Alaskans, it is a marginally acceptable vehicle. For West Texans, for a good portion of Montanans, for a great chunk of the 100th Meridian folks, it is the same. For me to drive from home to the single NEAREST town and back - Delta Jct., no great metropolis - requires careful driving. To go the one-way route to Fairbanks is the same, and it's a full charge (ie, overnight) to get back home. To get to Anchorage necessitates a mid-stop recharge. That is the kind of driving an auto company need address, not commuting to and from work on a Californian freeway.

If Tesla is to be a great company with great product, it needs address the margins. If not it is, ultimately, itself marginalized.

No, in fact, that is not the style of driving it needs to address. Alaska has less than 1/50th as many people as California. Commuting to and from work on a California freeway is precisely what they need to address, unless they want to restrict themselves to 2% of the market. And regardless, I talked about Norway above, and Bjorn's videos. He does just fine. So your request has already been addressed, just not through a huge battery, because that's not the correct way to address it.

You also seem to be forgetting that to have a "great" product, cost weight size and efficiency considerations need to be taken into account. Great products don't cost tens of thousands of dollars more than they should in order to cover the .1% use cases. The reason the car is a great product is because they picked the battery they did and then put superchargers where they did. It would be a lousy product with the battery you seem to be asking for. Range is simply not a factor for the vast majority of drivers whether they know it or not, and the model s has sufficient range for, again, well over 99.9% of driving conditions, not counting supercharging, as shown by real nationwide statistics I linked above, not my own anecdotes.

And the position I've taken here is not my own, but the one which Elon and JB have publicly taken. I am not saying they shouldn't continually increase range to enormous numbers which only a tiny minority thinks they need, I am saying they won't. Because they've said they won't. They will focus on quick charging. As they already have. And they will continue do this because it is a far smarter choice. And anyone who expects otherwise will be waiting for a long time.
 
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Elon did say bigger battery pack will come next year ;) In Oslo. And for me the huge distance driving isn't an issue, that is really marginal amount people (sorry AudubonB), but what is is real cold weather driving in slush. Björn was driving in November-December which were really warm months in Norway and Estonia. The real cold period of mid-January he was in Thailand ;) When he came back the temperatures had risen again close to 0. In his last drive he encountered one spot where it dropped to -25, but most of the way it was above -10. In those conditions I can drive 400km too (I did in fact at -5) without compromising too much on speed. At -10 and below when we get to constant battery heating territory the usage goes up dramatically and add to it fresh mushy snow and the usage is 50% higher than rated and your range drops to 170 miles. That is dropping dangerously low and won't get you longer distance travel anymore that is comfortable. The pack doesn't need to be for 500 miles, but an extra 20-30% to account for really cold climate and bad weather conditions to still have reserve buffer is about the ideal sweetspot. That 20-30% isn't needed in warmer weather and hence the current 85kWh battery is the sweetspot in all those regions. Yes, once the superchargers are as prevalent that you get to one in 100 miles no matter where you are, then one doesn't care anymore. So either Tesla needs a bigger pack or far faster supercharger rollout. I guess the basic reality is priorities so neither is going to happen and early adopters in locations currently not covered will just have to manage a couple of years. As the CHAdeMO adapter comes out it's a stop-gap solution that helps us get through those times as it provides ~40% of the supercharger speed (the adapter is limited to 50kW).