You are asking the 64 dollar questions that many of us have wondered for some time. I've tried to answer below based on my own speculation.
It's likely that it does. But it depends on what software you are talking about. There are circuit boards mounted within the ESS itself with firmware in them. I don't think all of these get updated when you get a so-called software upgrade. I don't think all of them are even connected to the bus. That is based on what I was told by a Tesla tech who said he had disassembled the ESS. I think they could easily update this firmware when rebuilding the ESS with new cells. I suspect they will offer an upgrade to the $12k owners to get more than 53 kWh.
I have also heard of Roadsters with particularly good batteries that after being cycled a few times show more than 245 ideal miles remaining on the vds. That would indicate that there is at least some capacity in the hardware/firmware for bigger cells already. Just how much is anybody's guess.
Not sure about this but I doubt it. Tesla has automated equipment to solder and glue the cells that might be too costly to setup for such a limited market. In addition, Tesla is building recycling facilities to re-use most of the material in the cells. They claim to recoup some of the cost that way. It also really depends on whats in there! Some of it might be impossible to reverse engineer (electronics, firmware), or too expensive given the small market.
A service tech told me it takes about a whole day (8 hrs) to swap a ESS out of a Roadster if he periodically gets help from another mechanic. That's a lot of shop time! When I heard that I decided $12k was a good deal for the battery replacement program.
I also think Tesla will offer better cells for an upgrade price to those of us who bought the program.
So :-
(1) Does anyone know if the existing Roadster software has the hidden-facility to initialize and balance an entire ESS fitted-out with a set of new higher capacity 18650's ?
It's likely that it does. But it depends on what software you are talking about. There are circuit boards mounted within the ESS itself with firmware in them. I don't think all of these get updated when you get a so-called software upgrade. I don't think all of them are even connected to the bus. That is based on what I was told by a Tesla tech who said he had disassembled the ESS. I think they could easily update this firmware when rebuilding the ESS with new cells. I suspect they will offer an upgrade to the $12k owners to get more than 53 kWh.
I have also heard of Roadsters with particularly good batteries that after being cycled a few times show more than 245 ideal miles remaining on the vds. That would indicate that there is at least some capacity in the hardware/firmware for bigger cells already. Just how much is anybody's guess.
Yes. They added the ability to balance the cells when doing a standard mode charge in a recent software update. They tweaked the charging profile quite a bit on the original prototypes so it's reasonable to assume they have the capacity to do this without too much trouble.(2) Do you think that the existing software (or via an upgrade) allows for altering the charge profile for slightly different cells?
(3) Do you think that as Roadsters fall out of warranty in the years ahead, that a 3rd party support network will form offering a reverse engineered ESS cell upgrade ?! (and hopefully not as a result of Tesla going belly up - I've just bought shares too!)
Not sure about this but I doubt it. Tesla has automated equipment to solder and glue the cells that might be too costly to setup for such a limited market. In addition, Tesla is building recycling facilities to re-use most of the material in the cells. They claim to recoup some of the cost that way. It also really depends on whats in there! Some of it might be impossible to reverse engineer (electronics, firmware), or too expensive given the small market.
A service tech told me it takes about a whole day (8 hrs) to swap a ESS out of a Roadster if he periodically gets help from another mechanic. That's a lot of shop time! When I heard that I decided $12k was a good deal for the battery replacement program.
I also think Tesla will offer better cells for an upgrade price to those of us who bought the program.