This has been discussed a lot here and the answer is no one really knows. Doesn’t seem likely to me for several reasons but one obvious one is it already qualifies for business owner deductions which is stated on the order page. The details are a bit unclear but I’m sure it’s helping with sales a bit and negating the need for the consumer tax credit qualification, which would possibly make demand shoot well past production capacity, which isn’t always a good thing.
Also, the standard range model would be the one qualifying based on current pricing and that one isn’t all that great. 269 miles of range when factoring in common efficiency loses is not enough for many.
Yes, I predict in mid January the X will cost $78k. Tesla will be able to use the same trick of fleetwide averaging that enables the model 3 with Chinese LFP battery to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit. In January the tax credit will be point of sale, so you get the money immediately. And since the X will cost under $80K with color options, it will qualify.