Factory shut down

[SamBGB]

It has a 10-15x higher mortality rate than seasonal influenza, has no vaccine or cure, is highly contagious and transmissble through breath as opposed to coughing, sneezing, etc. It survives on surfaces for several hours, does not seem to be particularly affected by climate (Australia have it just as bad and they're in the high 20s), etc.

Whilst it seems to only be killing people with weakened immune systems, it is nevertheless going to kill hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of people before it gets to a point where it is under control.

The absolute best takeaway from it is that it will hopefully be a massive wakeup call for humanity to think about how much funding is dedicated to healthcare and the sciences.

Very well said, and there will undoubtedly be deaths of this that could have been avoided had people taken notice of this early on and took heed of the advice given. I’m hearing in London it’s almost like business as usual, I don’t live there so I’m not sure but maybe a Londoner can chime in and confirm or correct me.

On a lighter note I said to my wife... there are two stead fast reasons you know this is serious 1) When the government starts to put its hand in its pocket, or 2) People start turning into flesh eating zombies

 

[Chippylad]

Very well said, and there will undoubtedly be deaths of this that could have been avoided had people taken notice of this early on and took heed of the advice given. I’m hearing in London it’s almost like business as usual, I don’t live there so I’m not sure but maybe a Londoner can chime in and confirm or correct me.

On a lighter note I said to my wife... there are two stead fast reasons you know this is serious 1) When the government starts to put its hand in its pocket, or 2) People start turning into flesh eating zombies

It is definitely NOT business as usual in London. Many, many offices are closed and commuter volumes are dramatically down. Businesses and individuals started to change their behaviour before the UK Government woke up to the seriousness of the outbreak. And this is not going to normalise for many months to come.

 

[Chanser]

Rumours of London lockdown tomorrow.

Helena Wilkinson on Twitter

 

[gangzoom]

I’m hearing in London it’s almost like business as usual

You hear wrong, very wrong. London hospitals are already on the verge of been overrun and UK case numbers are still 2 weeks behind Italy.

The rest of the UK is about 1 week behind London.

In Italy anyone over 65 is not even been considered for ITU now, the NHS has far less headroom than the Italien healthcare system, I suspect we will be triarging people within a week of seeing the type of numbers Italy have reported.

Anyone who thinks this will blow over quickly are in for a shock. This virus is horrid, it causes multi organ failure through over activation of the immune system, there is no cure and a vaccine is 6 months+ away.

Stay safe, keep clean, and stay away from other people if you can!!

 

[ACarneiro]

“stay away from other people if you can!!”

I think that’s good advice in all circumstances anyway

 

[dakaix]

Must of these points have proven to be unfounded at best.

Quite. In fact it appears the second wave is just starting to pass through Asia.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51955931

 

[Darmie]

GM Ford Fiat closing. Is Tesla still open?

General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler to temporarily close all US factories due to the coronavirus

 

[Plagued]

As someone "on the spectrum", and I wouldn't be surprised if Elon is too. I do have to actively try and understand the somewhat moral method of protecting the old and sick above everyone else.... I'm really not trying to be a d1ck here and I fully agree that isolation of those in risk is incredibly important, but you do also have to factor in that something like 25% of suicides in men are linked to employment. Huge numbers of individuals will lose their jobs, divorce rates will increase, small business will fail and families will be torn apart. People in the financial sector may have lost everything and the longer the lock down happens the more lives are lost/ruined from people not at risk from the virus.
So there is a definite balance that needs to be made. the Imerial.ac.uk report published earlier demonstrates that the timing of the school closure was better to be left later than sooner, against the public wishes. so sometimes the numbers are worth looking at.
Again, apologies for the lack of compassion, I'm not trying to under play the danger to life that this virus poses.

 

[Alex987854]

As someone "on the spectrum", and I wouldn't be surprised if Elon is too. I do have to actively try and understand the somewhat moral method of protecting the old and sick above everyone else.... I'm really not trying to be a d1ck here and I fully agree that isolation of those in risk is incredibly important, but you do also have to factor in that something like 25% of suicides in men are linked to employment. Huge numbers of individuals will lose their jobs, divorce rates will increase, small business will fail and families will be torn apart. People in the financial sector may have lost everything and the longer the lock down happens the more lives are lost/ruined from people not at risk from the virus.
So there is a definite balance that needs to be made. the Imerial.ac.uk report published earlier demonstrates that the timing of the school closure was better to be left later than sooner, against the public wishes. so sometimes the numbers are worth looking at.
Again, apologies for the lack of compassion, I'm not trying to under play the danger to life that this virus poses.

What the government seem to be doing is plotting a course somewhere in the middle of several different mathematical models while trying to support the economy as well as they can. I'm no fan of Boris and his cronies, but I can't imagine any other party doing anything different.
In 2018 the male suicide rate was 0.017%. There would have to be a huge increase to catch up with the 1-3% of covid - 19.

 

[Plagued]

The fatality rate of those aged under 50 is 0.15% down to 0.006% for 18 year olds and that's of those infected not a percentage of total population, so it probably wouldn't take much for unemployment to kill more kids than the virus. But I agree it'll kill a lot more 80 year olds than suicide. but if you put two kids in one room and 10 pensioners in another and ask someone to choose who lives .....
I digress, it's a bit off topic and a conversation that can't be truly right either way.
But ... it does seem Elon is keeping the factory open and checking workers temperatures.
I wonder if they'll actually force them to shut.

 

[Tam]

...so it probably wouldn't take much for unemployment to kill more kids than the virus...

There's an anti-shutdown movement from the US Congress:

Sen. Ron Johnson: We Shouldn’t Shut Down Economy Just Cause Up to 3.4 Percent of Infected Population Could Die


California Rep. Devin Nunes on coronavirus quarantine: Go to the pub

 

[JCremonini]

Can’t believe I’m reading some of this...

ok, so let’s say we carry on as normal and don’t close down the country . What would be the effect ?

Well - the virus would spread at a much faster rate . No doubt.

You would have a massively over subscribed intensive care situation in every single country . No doubt.

As a result the mortality rate would be far, far higher. No doubt.

So, now you end up having to decide who lives and who dies. Who gets the treatment and who doesn’t. This is happening , to some degree, right now in a Italy. Try explaining to a doctor or a nurse that this is a decision we are forcing on them because , well, it’s far easier to do that than try to fight it. The trauma on each and every one of them would be immense.

And the end result would be pretty much the end of whatever political party was running the country at the time.

It’s a silly argument. Ethics is always a higher priority than economics.

 

[Dickybeau]

It’s crazy that fit people need to keep their social distance, jobs disappear, companies mothballed and the economy crashed for want of a credible government action at Westminster. It’s clear to many people by now that it would be better to test fir infection broadly and isolate those that have the virus. This thread from twitter has some very interesting points
Thread by @trvrb: I've been mulling over the @MRC_Outbreak modeling report on #COVID19 mitigation and suppression strategies since it was posted on March 16.…

in South Korea and in the Veneto area, evidence strongly suggests that testing, identification of carriers and isolation followed by determined tracing and isolation of their contacts is an essential part of stopping the virus spread while maintaining a functioning society. The original ‘herd immunity’ nonsense would have seen the NHS crashed. As it stands right now it’s ‘only’ the economy and normal life that’s crashing.

 

[JCremonini]

We did exactly the same as SK, Hong Kong and Singapore during the initial stages in an effort to contain . It did not work ( probably because people just moved about more but it’s not clear why) . The herd immunity idea was not the original plan but part of this first containment phase ( and is not actually nonsense and would work if , at the same time, the rate of contagion worked within the headroom the NHS has).

 

[AYYC]

- Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

I know one of these is not true, back in mid Feb one of my work colleagues came back from training in Malaysia, just as a precaution we asked him to stay home for at least a week. The following Tuesday he developed a cough, called 111 and a team came to his house to test him. By coincidence his mother is a nurse and knows the local testing team. Results are returned within 3 hours during the early days when the outbreak wasn't considered an outbreak.
I think the delay is more to do with the number of tests they have to carry out now rather than the test itself.

 

[dakaix]

Seems they've finally come to their senses:

https://electrek.co/2020/03/19/tesla-factory-shutdown-starting-march-24/

 

[AYYC]

Quite. In fact it appears the second wave is just starting to pass through Asia.

Source: Asian nations face second wave of virus cases

I can also give a bit more background on this one since my wife is Korean, the news we hear in the UK about other countries don't always provide the full facts or context.
The majority of the first outbreak in Korea occurred when a single Chinese tourist visited Daegu and managed to infect a grandma who attends the Shincheonji Church, apparently she knew she was sick but insisted on attending church. The rest of the news gives a good account of what happened.
Korea was able to contain the virus without any lock-down through mass testing and specifically being transparent on known cases. Due to the conflict with North Korea, every mobile phone in the country is linked to an emergency alert system. Every time a new case was identified the location the patient has visited was broadcasted to everyone in the country through this system. Therefore anyone who has been those locations are able to identify themselves for testing and self-isolate. Since the UK does not have this capability and our government aren't particularly transparent, most of us are oblivious if we are spreading the virus unintentionally until we get the symptoms.
There are disadvantages to this system though, I believe it has caused some people embarrassment as they have been caught in places they shouldn't have been.
The latest outbreak is also linked to another religious group... however from the Korean news it is contained and they are not too worried about it.
All arrivals into the country is being tested, two weeks ago, they tested positive 15 arrivals from the UK who didn't even know they had the virus and are now under quarantine. This is why they are successful at containing the virus and we are not, we can't even get tested to at least eliminate if we have the virus or not and be released from self isolation to not be a burden on the country.
At no point even at the height of the China outbreak did Korea restrict travel into the country from China or otherwise.

 

[Smog]

As someone "on the spectrum", and I wouldn't be surprised if Elon is too. I do have to actively try and understand the somewhat moral method of protecting the old and sick above everyone else.... I'm really not trying to be a d1ck here and I fully agree that isolation of those in risk is incredibly important, but you do also have to factor in that something like 25% of suicides in men are linked to employment. Huge numbers of individuals will lose their jobs, divorce rates will increase, small business will fail and families will be torn apart. People in the financial sector may have lost everything and the longer the lock down happens the more lives are lost/ruined from people not at risk from the virus.
So there is a definite balance that needs to be made. the Imerial.ac.uk report published earlier demonstrates that the timing of the school closure was better to be left later than sooner, against the public wishes. so sometimes the numbers are worth looking at.
Again, apologies for the lack of compassion, I'm not trying to under play the danger to life that this virus poses.

Let me put this in to an ethical/medical perspective for you if it makes it easier to grasp.

Not everyone who loses jobs, has a hard time, comes into financial hardship will undertake suicide. This also can’t be hypothesised, as despite the larger number of male to women suicides reported, there’s are a much greater proportion of female to male suicides with engaged Mental health service users (Let me know if you want the evidence/papers).

If everyone, including the elderly/vulnerable and ‘non-vulnerable’ groups (inc children) were to become ill, the NHS and clinicians within it will have to make horrendous, life changing decisions. Example could be, do we ventilate the 32 year Old single asthma sufferer without a family, the 2 year old who hasn’t lived a life but would be devastating for family, or the healthy, no medical condition 60 year old with 2 kids and 5 grandkids.

By limiting social interaction for vulnerable people, the healthy people (inc children) are able to become ‘unwell’ to an extent, if they ever do, and then overcome the virus due to strong immune systems. This allows the NHS to go about daily business, whilst also caring for the few, very sick people, who contract the virus and require significant support (Form both the unhealthy/isolated groups and the rare occasions healthy people become unwell).

Once the elderly/vulnerable are looked after or over the hill, along with the less vulnerable majority either living through, overcoming or self combating the virus, sanctions could be lifted. This would mean any of the ‘Vulnerable’ that are sick, along with any of the ‘unvulnerable’ who never came near the virus, would have the resources/equipment/clinicians at their disposal to provide them the best care.

I hope that make sense, and if not, I’m happy to clear up the concept of the governments decisions.