I put in one PowerWall, which seemed sufficient. On PG&E's EV2-A rate, off peak is from midnight till 3PM, and between 3 PM and midnight we use around 50% of the PW's capacity. So that works.
But now, Export Everything EE gives an additional savings opportunity. Much of the year, the PW gets to 100% around noon, so solar starts exporting while the rate is still off-peak. EE exports starting at 4 pm and self adjusts to get down to the backup reserve when the rate drops.
So, what if I had a 2nd Powerwall? All that off-peak export could be time shifted to export at peak pricing. And with grid charging, that can happen all year. So rather than arbitrage on 30% of PW capacity as I have now, with 2 PW I could do so on 130%.
My real mistake was that my PW was paid for by SGIP, and they would have gladly paid for 2. Sigh.
As it is, my first NEM2 sure-up just came in at around $65 for the year, plus of course the monthly minimum billing. So my single PW is doing about as good as can be. But when we replace gas heating with electric heat pumps, I will really wish I had gone bigger.
My point is that if one can afford 2 PW's, it may be a very good idea.