Full Self Driving ability by end of the YEAR ?

[Snuffysasa]

Guys, I recommend avoid using terms like FSD and L4 and L5, because it is not clear what you actually mean.

This is the most likely Tesla rollout:

By end of 2017: there may be some 'FSD-like' features enabled, such as maybe stopping at stop signs and stoplights. However of course, human driver will still be required to keep eyes on-road and hands by wheel. So this is technically SAE Level 2.

By 2018: There will be many / most 'FSD' features enabled, this means that in perfect conditions a Tesla could drive a full trip autonomously. However of course, human driver will still be required to keep eyes on-road and hands by wheel. And there will be very frequent exceptions, where the human will need to intervene. And of course, some roads the system may not be able to handle, many weather and traffic conditions etc. So this is technically SAE Level 2.

2019-2020: Tesla continues to refine 'FSD' so that human interventions will be needed to the point of almost never. (Still SAE Level 2)

2020-2021-or beyond: Tesla could get to the point where they will enable 'driver-less autonomy' This is the point where the system becomes SAE Level 4, and at this point, Tesla will have to claim responsibility for accidents. At this point, and only at this point is there a question of will regulators allow this. The time-frame for this is most unclear, but I do not see the bottle neck as regulation/legality. I see the bigger bottleneck is just is the technology performing at a high enough level. Though I do think its very possible for AP 2 to be performing at above a human level in certain conditions: weather, mapped areas, types of roads etc.

Michigan and Cali already allow, 'driverless cars.'
And in all the other states where there is not specific ban on SDCs(most of them), then in this case driverless cars are already legal. But we could see many states pass bans on driverless cars, but I don't see it as a major barrier. The states and the feds will allow driverless cars if a company can show that it is a good choice.

 

[ecarfan]

Thank you for that very sensible post reminding everyone of what Elon actually stated. He did not say FSDC would be complete by the end of this year. But numerous journalists have completely failed to understand what he wrote.

As to when FSDC will be complete, I have no idea.

Bad quoting in that article that removed the context.

This is the actual chain:
@tsrandall
At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?

@elonmusk
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
Elon Musk on Twitter

So what Elon means is that in 3-6 months there will be a noticeably different feature for those that opted for the FSD vs those that just opted for the EAP. It does not mean that they will be releasing FSD (level 5) driving at this point. EAP uses 4 cameras, FSD uses 8 cameras, so there are plenty of other features they can release for FSD (not related to level 5 driving) that won't be available in EAP.

The only time-line related to level 5 is that there will be a cross country demo by the end of the year. But there is no promised timeline for when level 5 driving will be released to the public.

 

[kort677]

FSD at this point is a very long way from happening, they manufacturers can't even get what we have now to function flawlessly so be patient because the technology just isn't there yet

 

[NikeWings]

And beyond the technology, is the ability for the rest of society to prep & adjust to it.
Can you sue FSD? Do we need to standardize lane markers, signage etc. Can a cop pull over a FSD auto for running a red light? What happens in a hit & run?

It'll lbe a new world. Reminds me of modern version of this: http://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne.../04/26/auto-traffic-history-detroit/26312107/

 

[Tam]

...cop pull over a FSD auto...

In 2015, a cop did pull over a driverless Koala style Google/Waymo autonomous car to question why it was driving 25 mph in a 35 mph zone.

The cop found no driver and talked to the passenger instead.

It turned out the prototype could speed up to only 25 mph maximum because of safety precaution.

The cop said no laws were broken so no ticket was issued.

 

[NikeWings]

In 2015, a cop did pull over a driverless Koala style Google/Waymo autonomous car to question why it was driving 25 mph in a 35 mph zone. The cop found no driver and talked to the passenger instead. It turned out the prototype could speed up to only 25 mph maximum because of safety precaution. The cop said no laws were broken so no ticket was issued.

WOW, but I don't understand why a cop would pull it over in the first place? It was within the speed limit. So can the FSD sue for harrassment?

 

[Tam]

...why a cop would pull it over in the first place?...

You could never guess because some police departments would turn on siren and flashing lights to pull you over as a community service: gift giving such as an ice cream cone, hundred dollar bill, turkey, Christmas present...

 

[adaboost]

I don't think FSD is possible with HW2. I would love to be proven wrong, but there is probably a reason why competitors are investing in LIDAR so heavily and still not able to achieve anything beyond L2/L3. Its great that Tesla is trying to get ground truth to train their sensors via LIDAR units, but I do worry that they might have to resort to some kind of retrofit and/or HW3 in order to keep their promise of being "L5 capable".

 

[Tam]

...LIDAR so heavily...

Just for clarification, LIDARs have been in prototypes but I don't think they are in any car for public to buy in any near future. For example: Faraday Future will sell you their cars with LIDARs but you have to wait for its factory to be built first.

2018 GM Super Cruise will use LIDAR maps but the cars that the public will be able to buy won't come with LIDARs.

While waiting for LIDAR to become more affordable, I think Tesla AP2 hardware suite will do autonomous job fine in certain specified conditions: good weather, clear vision, no giant pot holes...

Perhaps ride hailing Tesla Network will screen to make sure which routes will be acceptable for driverless customers pickups and which routes and weather conditions will not be accepted.

 

[adaboost]

+1

I like that idea quite a bit. Routing cars through known self drivable streets keeps liability down and reduces the number of variables for training examples.

 

[JCB_Arizona]

Ok. I've been following Tesla for years. Finally have my MX. The FSD isn't even something I really care about that much, as I do just enjoy driving the car.

But...

We were supposed to see a demonstration last year. Pushed to first quarter of 2018. We have moved beyond that date and haven't really heard much about anything.

I'd really like to see some sort of demonstration/proof of any of the FSD. Hell, even if it's driving from Fremont to the Gigafactory. I know EM said he didn't want to "cheat" the test, but at least show us something. Am I alone?

 

[Barklikeadog]

Ok. I've been following Tesla for years. Finally have my MX. The FSD isn't even something I really care about that much, as I do just enjoy driving the car.

But...

We were supposed to see a demonstration last year. Pushed to first quarter of 2018. We have moved beyond that date and haven't really heard much about anything.

I'd really like to see some sort of demonstration/proof of any of the FSD. Hell, even if it's driving from Fremont to the Gigafactory. I know EM said he didn't want to "cheat" the test, but at least show us something. Am I alone?

When did Tesla start selling FSD to customers? 20 months ago?

 

[MrAustraliaTax]

I'd really like to see some sort of demonstration/proof of any of the FSD.

Perhaps it's time to change the meme?

When will we see any semblance of FSD?
3 years maybe, definitely 6.

 

[Tam]

...Pushed to first quarter of 2018...

Last update was from 2/7/2018 conference call which predicted a new timeline for 3 to 6 months which could be anytime from 5/7/2018 to 8/7/2018.

So.... It's still a bit early to expect the latest promise to be fulfilled.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Last update was from 2/7/2018 conference call which predicted a new timeline for 3 to 6 months which could be anytime from 5/7/2018 to 8/7/2018.

So.... It's still a bit early to expect the latest promise to be fulfilled.

It's not a promise if they don't use the word promise... meaning Tesla has no obligation to ever deliver what was prom.... predicted and sold to the customer.

 

[Tam]

...It's not a promise if they don't use the word promise...

I don't mean it's a legal promise.

Whether it's a legal promise or not, it is still a statement about some specific thing that will happen in a specific future.

It's just a saying of something in future without any legal declaration at all such as "There will be rain tomorrow!"

When that statement about the future comes from a friend who is not an expert in weather, I can give that person a hard time by saying "but you promised it would rain and I am still waiting for it!"

However, when that statement about the future comes from a meteorologist, it would be helpful if that person can explain why the prediction was not realized (such as using old computer hardware, faulty Weather Models, not using European Union Weather Models....)

My guess for the delay in Self-Driving is: It is just much harder and much longer than it was confidently predicted.

But what makes it much harder?

And what makes it to delay much longer?

 

[MattEnth]

Guys, I recommend avoid using terms like FSD and L4 and L5, because it is not clear what you actually mean.

Tesla's website defines what "FSD" is. It's marketed as a key reason to upgrade to "Full Self-Driving Capability": Autopilot

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[Snuffysasa]

Tesla's website defines what "FSD" is. It's marketed as a key reason to upgrade to "Full Self-Driving Capability": Autopilot

Sure that's fine... but then you should say something like "Tesla FSD" or "what Tesla calls FSD"


This definition is unclear whether or not the human driver is required to take over for edge cases... or whether the human driver is responsible for preventing accidents..

To many people... the phrase "Fully Self-Driving" implies that the human driver is not in the driver seat, or is not responsible for the actions of the vehicle.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Sure that's fine... but then you should say something like "Tesla FSD" or "what Tesla calls FSD"


This definition is unclear whether or not the human driver is required to take over for edge cases... or whether the human driver is responsible for preventing accidents..

To many people... the phrase "Fully Self-Driving" implies that the human driver is not in the driver seat, or is not responsible for the actions of the vehicle.

Tesla defines what it will do:

The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I don't mean it's a legal promise.

Whether it's a legal promise or not, it is still a statement about some specific thing that will happen in a specific future.

It's just a saying of something in future without any legal declaration at all such as "There will be rain tomorrow!"

When that statement about the future comes from a friend who is not an expert in weather, I can give that person a hard time by saying "but you promised it would rain and I am still waiting for it!"

However, when that statement about the future comes from a meteorologist, it would be helpful if that person can explain why the prediction was not realized (such as using old computer hardware, faulty Weather Models, not using European Union Weather Models....)

My guess for the delay in Self-Driving is: It is just much harder and much longer than it was confidently predicted.

But what makes it much harder?

And what makes it to delay much longer?

I doubt that FSD will work as described until every car on the road can communicate/locate each other. I see on tech websites that it is often referred to
as '5 years away' and then 5 years later it is still '5 years away'.