GEN III - When will we see the first prototype

[DaveT]

I found the place where Elon Musk says Gen III will come out in 3-4 years (this is from March 2013).

Twitter / elonmusk: .@joshj777 It has always been ...

I doubt there's any chance it will come out in 2015. I think we can keep our fingers crossed for 2016 (so prototype in 2014/2015 maybe?).

 

[AnOutsider]

We have to also allow for changes... On the small scale, the various announcements have been moved back and around a week or two here and there. On a larger scale, the X was moved back a whole year.

I feel pretty safe in assuming there will be changes to the G3 timeline. Right now id say 2016-17 is likely unless something changes (big cash infusion, big leap in battery tech etc)

 

[DaveT]

Just read this article where Elon Musk says Gen III will be coming in 2016 or 2017 at the latest.
The Engadget Interview: Tesla's Elon Musk promises more Superchargers, better service, cheaper EVs that don't suck

"That's about three to four years out," says Musk. "Hopefully 2016, but I would say no later than 2017." To get there, the company has a significant engineering task ahead of it, having to reduce the cost of the battery pack and the electric drivetrain by 50 percent just to have a chance. "Economies of scale will help with that, and it'll be a slightly smaller car, so that'll help too ... Going from the Roadster to the Model S the cost dropped by about half, and I think we can do that again."

 

[aronth5]

When the Model S and Model X were announced it was a huge event here. I know I adjusted my schedule to catch them live like many many others on TMC. But else where not so much. And course I did the same for Elon's announcement in Norway earlier this year. The Gen3 live announcement will be many times larger, much like when Apple releases a new IPhone. By then the Tesla will be very well known by the public and there will be lots of interest for a car targeted for the masses. And if they are ready to take reservations Tesla better beef up their web site that night. So I'm putting my name in now for any TMC member who has an extra ticket to Fremont for the announcement:smile:

 

[Grendal]

When the Model S and Model X were announced it was a huge event here. I know I adjusted my schedule to catch them live like many many others on TMC. But else where not so much. And course I did the same for Elon's announcement in Norway earlier this year. The Gen3 live announcement will be many times larger, much like when Apple releases a new IPhone. By then the Tesla will be very well known by the public and there will be lots of interest for a car targeted for the masses.

The more Model S's on the road the more the public will know and understand the Tesla brand. I can already imagine that the stores are seeing a lot more traffic than they ever have before. In another two or three years it's going to be insane. I wonder if the Gen III Signature series will be 10,000 cars? I just don't see 1000 Sigs cutting it for that car. Tesla and Elon will decide, of course.

 

[aronth5]

The more Model S's on the road the more the public will know and understand the Tesla brand. I can already imagine that the stores are seeing a lot more traffic than they ever have before. In another two or three years it's going to be insane. I wonder if the Gen III Signature series will be 10,000 cars? I just don't see 1000 Sigs cutting it for that car. Tesla and Elon will decide, of course.

Lets hope Tesla revisits the advantage in purchasing a Signature. There was a recent thread where many Sig owners felt the Signature purchase was not worth it.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/15830-Signature-Angst/page13

 

[DaveT]

Today on Bloomberg Elon Musk says Gen III coming in 3-4 years:
Musk: Half-Priced Tesla Model S in 3-4 Years: Video - Bloomberg

 

[ipdamages]

Today on Bloomberg Elon Musk says Gen III coming in 3-4 years:
Musk: Half-Priced Tesla Model S in 3-4 Years: Video - Bloomberg

As much as people have suggested/indicated that Elon has said that the technology is there for big improvements on Model S for Gen 3, it sure sounds like they need to make some real progress on the technology in order to build a Gen 3 that meets the lofty goals that Elon has set for that car. I've learned better than to doubt him or Tesla, so I'm not saying it can't be done or that they won't do it, but it appears that the reason that Gen 3 is looking like a late 2016-2017 release is that they need to do a lot more than design the car - they need to achieve major technological breakthroughs, and I suspect that is primarily in the batteries/motor. But as I wrote, I have more confidence in this team than anyone else out there right now, and their track record says a lot.

As to the sig advantage question, I betcha they will have no problem getting 3,000+ people to fork over an extra $6K-$8K for a sig Gen 3 - even if all that gets you is a car 6 months earlier, a different shade of red, and a signed sun visor.

 

[JRP3]

I'm pretty sure nothing needs to happen to the motor technology for the G3 to happen. Electric motors are already in the 90% efficiency range and higher so any advances there will bring minimal results. It's all about the battery costs, and the money needed to build the production line.

 

[WarpedOne]

What if genIII is FWD using front motor from ModelX?

Advantages:
- lower total cost
- even bigger trunk
- (stronger) regen through corners

Disadvantages:
- lower max power/acceleration
- smaller frunk
- harder to drift

Do we have estimated power for that front motor? 100kW?

 

[DaveT]

I don't think Gen III would have front wheel drive. If it did, then I don't think it could compete against the BMW 3 series (which it's supposed to). Rear wheel drive is the preferred drive for most enthusiasts looking for performance.

 

[ipdamages]

I'm pretty sure nothing needs to happen to the motor technology for the G3 to happen. Electric motors are already in the 90% efficiency range and higher so any advances there will bring minimal results. It's all about the battery costs, and the money needed to build the production line.

I agree with you. When I say "technology" I mean technology that can be produced for a target cost. That said, I'm not sure about battery density and whether it is currently there - even at a high cost. But you and others on this forum are much more knowledgeable than am I as it regards that topic. Would it be possible to build a Gen 3 car today (3-series size, body about like the shrunken 2-door Model S that has been photo-edited around here, 200-mile range, 0-60 in 4.9, and room for groceries or golf clubs) for $75K after incentives (or call it $10K less than a similar Model S)? If so, they should launch that car today. I will buy it. Many others will buy it over the Model S.

But I sense that the technology isn't there yet - separate from finding a way to do that for $25K/car less. If it was, I would expect others to have gotten closer further in what they are doing (BMW, Audi, Nissan, Chevy, Detroit Electric, etc.). And I suspect that the Model S would not have been 77" wide if that wasn't necessary.

 

[gregincal]

I agree with you. When I say "technology" I mean technology that can be produced for a target cost. That said, I'm not sure about battery density and whether it is currently there - even at a high cost. But you and others on this forum are much more knowledgeable than am I as it regards that topic. Would it be possible to build a Gen 3 car today (3-series size, body about like the shrunken 2-door Model S that has been photo-edited around here, 200-mile range, 0-60 in 4.9, and room for groceries or golf clubs) for $75K after incentives (or call it $10K less than a similar Model S)? If so, they should launch that car today. I will buy it. Many others will buy it over the Model S.

But I sense that the technology isn't there yet - separate from finding a way to do that for $25K/car less. If it was, I would expect others to have gotten closer further in what they are doing (BMW, Audi, Nissan, Chevy, Detroit Electric, etc.). And I suspect that the Model S would not have been 77" wide if that wasn't necessary.

As far as battery size, other car companies can't do it because they want to share as many components between their ICE cars and electric cars as possible, which means no skateboard platform. If you reduce the model S down to 3 series proportions, the area between the wheels where the battery lives only reduces by about 10-15% (the 3 series wheelbase is only 6 inches less than the model S). So with today's battery technology instead of an 85kWh battery you could only have a 70-75kWh battery, which would obviously be fine.

 

[ipdamages]

As far as battery size, other car companies can't do it because they want to share as many components between their ICE cars and electric cars as possible, which means no skateboard platform. If you reduce the model S down to 3 series proportions, the area between the wheels where the battery lives only reduces by about 10-15% (the 3 series wheelbase is only 6 inches less than the model S). So with today's battery technology instead of an 85kWh battery you could only have a 70-75kWh battery, which would obviously be fine.

There are some companies with EV offerings that appear limited by their ICE siblings, but not all of them. And Tesla is not alone in its use of the skateboard. Here is the i3's layout, as well as the i8. Both use the skateboard.

But the i3 is only able to turn that into a 22 kWh battery, while the i8 is only 7.2 kWh.
BMW i3 Electric Car: ReX Range Extender Not For Daily Use?

It appears that Tesla is able to do more with battery volume.

But I can't quite agree with your math. The skateboard has to fit in between the car edges and wheels. in the back it sits just in front of the wheels, while in the front it extends to in between the wheels. And in the back, the motor also needs to find space.

And the battery can't extend all the way to the edge of the width of the car, given that there are other surrounding parts that can't so easily be squeezed (e.g, the metal around the battery, as well as the doors and what is inside them). So squeezing the total width from 77" to 70" is likely more than a 10% decrease in battery size. Maybe15%? But the problem is that we are not in a one-dimensional world. One also must shrink the Model S from 196" long to 182" long to be 3-series-sized. So 85 kWh becomes 72 kWh (85 x .85)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_3_Series_(F30)

That's another 7%, which, again, includes some "tough to shrink" parts like bumpers and lights and the like. So call that another 10%. 72 then becomes 65.

Is there a need to further cut down on the vertical dimension? I'll assume not.

All that said, I agree that a 65 kWh battery will potentially do the job, and that's with no additional battery tech improvements. It just causes me to wonder why others aren't doing this. I mean, if BWM would increase its i3 battery from 22 kWh to even 35 kWh, the car would be SO much more compelling.

 

[Hache]

And I suspect that the Model S would not have been 77" wide if that wasn't necessary.

I suspect Model S is that wide because it needs to carry 3 kids of the Musk family, with child seats.
Shrinking the Model S (for the width) is not difficult battery wise, it's the the motor+gearbox+PEM that is already a master of compacity. Getting that smaller is probably most difficult than removing some inches of the battery.

 

[gregincal]

But I can't quite agree with your math. The skateboard has to fit in between the car edges and wheels. in the back it sits just in front of the wheels, while in the front it extends to in between the wheels. And in the back, the motor also needs to find space.And the battery can't extend all the way to the edge of the width of the car, given that there are other surrounding parts that can't so easily be squeezed (e.g, the metal around the battery, as well as the doors and what is inside them). So squeezing the total width from 77" to 70" is likely more than a 10% decrease in battery size. Maybe15%? But the problem is that we are not in a one-dimensional world. One also must shrink the Model S from 196" long to 182" long to be 3-series-sized. So 85 kWh becomes 72 kWh (85 x .85)

As you say, we're quibbling with small parts of the math, but it's because the battery only fits between the wheels that I used wheel placement rather than total size to do the math.

BMW 3 series: 110" wheelbase, and wheels 62" apart
Model S: 116.5" wheelbase and wheels 65.5" apart

Most of the extra size of the Model S is overhang over the wheels, which doesn't affect the size of the battery.

The other reason I didn't mention for other car companies not making larger batteries is that they don't think people will buy expensive electric cars, but with the proposed price of the i3 it doesn't seems to make sense there either. The only reason I can give in that case is that BMW isn't really serious about selling many of them.

 

[jeff_adams]

It's a compliance car. And when sales suck, they can say "see, no one wants to buy an electric car. There is no demand" I can't wait for Tesla Nation to prove them wrong.

 

[ipdamages]

The only reason I can give in that case is that BMW isn't really serious about selling many of them.

It's a compliance car. And when sales suck, they can say "see, no one wants to buy an electric car. There is no demand" I can't wait for Tesla Nation to prove them wrong.

That could well be the case, but the LEAF and the i3 programs have a lot of $ behind them for compliance cars, including BMW's whole electric future mobility branding. And Carlos Ghosn didn't look like he was building a compliance car with the LEAF. Yet both of those cars have deal-killingly low ranges.

Back on topic - my point is that while I might tweak the math a bit, I agree with you, Greg, that the Model S seems to suggest that Gen 3 should be doable, so long as you relax the price requirement. Getting the price to $30K after incentives seems far off - in fact, so far off that I would prefer that they not hold out an extra year or two in pursuit of a $5,000 reduction in price. Because you know that low-hanging fruit (easy cost reductions) has already been plucked, and the further cost savings are going to require some currently unknown technologies/know how, and likely some sacrifices that some people would prefer not to make. Waiting until 2017 so they can drop the price an extra $5K, but ceding the huge market leader advantage, may prove to be unwise if others get their acts together.

 

[YoungStranger]

A big issue I see is that how to make a killer product that doesn't eat into the sales of the premium product. An ICE manufacturer can differentiate between models by adding horsepower and cylinders, whereas the savings Tesla can make by reducing the power/size of the motor and PEM would be marginal in terms of cost- similarly with size, the difference would be 100's of dollars not thousands. What would you be prepared to lose (besides range) on a Model S to make Gen III feasible?

 

[JRP3]

Would it be possible to build a Gen 3 car today (3-series size, body about like the shrunken 2-door Model S that has been photo-edited around here, 200-mile range, 0-60 in 4.9, and room for groceries or golf clubs) for $75K after incentives (or call it $10K less than a similar Model S)?

Why not? The Model S 60 hits 200 miles of range in a larger heavier vehicle that was built to hold 85kWh of batteries, and that already costs less than your target price. The smaller lighter G3 could easily do that with a smaller battery pack at a lower price point, but it still might not be the "$30K" price point that Elon is aiming for and it would certainly take sales away from the S. Plus they don't have the tooling to build it. So no they should not launch that car today. I think they need to wait until they build up enough cash to invest in it's production more than anything. Right now Tesla is pricing the difference between the 60 and 85 at $400 per kWh if you associate all the pricing difference to the battery. That means the theoretical 45kWh pack I projected for the G3 would cost $18K at retail level. Using the 25% profit margin figure their cost is $13.5K, leaving $31K for the rest of the vehicle at a $45K price point. I think that's quite possible in the very near future, but we still aren't going to see it until 2016-2017.