There had to have been a very small fuel margin for the landing.
This site claims that 160 seconds of first stage burn are used out of an available 185 seconds when a return to launch site maneuver is attempted, so no more than 14% remaining fuel or about 53,500kg. The second stage and propellant weigh less than 100,000kg, and the payload to LEO is about 13,000kg. So even raising fuel for the return to 17% would completely wipe out the payload capacity.
Actually, it's probably less fuel than that, since the engines are throttled down during the last minute or so to reduce acceleration as the stack gets lighter.
172 kg *12 = 2064 kg, that's quite heavy satellite dispenser you have there...
Good point, this flight used nowhere near the final useful load of the vehicle. But I think my math still stands - even with no net payload at LEO, there cannot be more than about 17% fuel left in the first stage if the second stage is going to make it into orbit, certainly not 50%. We must search for another explanation for the interesting soot pattern on the paint.
But the other side of the equation is, of course - how much fuel do they need to make it back to land? Does 17% constitute "a lot of extra fuel"? We know the speed down-range and altitude at staging. We know the time in flight after staging, the mass of the stage, the specific impulse of the engines. I think that's enough to calculate the total delta-vee and thus the necessary mass-fraction of fuel. I'll have to pull out Wolfram Alpha and see if I can get a good estimate. It's only rocket science, after all.
Reviewing the video and checking the math, the scenario
here plays out as follows:
First stage cutoff was at about 5988km/h or 1663m/s at T+2:26 (146 seconds, somewhat less than the website suggests probably due to low payload weight). That gives us (180-146)/180 seconds of fuel left or 18.8% (somewhat more than my previous estimate).
Boostback burn: 30 seconds to kill forward velocity and end up at 1300m/s towards launch site: delta vee 1300+1663 = 1963m/s
Entry burn: 20 seconds to slow from 1300m/s to 250m/s between 70 and 40km altitude: 1300-250 = 1050m/s
Fall from 40km adds 885m/s in vacuum minus an unknown amount for drag. But in the video, the boostback burn starts at about 8:10 (ends 8:30) and landing is at 9:46 so it covers 40km in 76 seconds for 526m/s
Landing burn: 526m/s
Total delta vee: 1963+1050+526=3539m/s
The first stage weighs 25600kg empty
Rocket equation says m0 = m1*exp(dv/ve), where m0 is starting mass, m1 is ending mass, dv is delta vee, and ve is exhaust velocity.
ve can be calculated by the engine Isp*g, 311s*9.8m/s = 3050m/s.
so, to touch down with zero fuel remaining, m0 = 25600*exp(3539/3050) = 81689
subtract the mass of the stage: 81689-25600 = 56089kg of fuel burned
Fuel load is 395700kg, so the required fuel at MECO is 56089/395700 or 14.9%.
18.8% fuel remaining (from video timing), 14.9% required (from rocket equation); therefore fuel margin 3.9%