Honda announcement at LA Auto show: PHEV for 2018

[anticitizen13.7]

An update to my thread on the Clarity FCV: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/56507-Honda-Clarity-FCEV-revealed!/page3

Honda's electrification plans are now more or less official: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...-at-2015-los-angeles-auto-show-300181241.html

Next-Generation Plug-In Hybrid

In addition, the platform underpinning the Clarity Fuel Cell also serves as the foundation for a next-generation PHEV Honda will launch in the U.S. by 2018. This will be a new volume production vehicle in the Honda line up available nationwide. Featuring a second iteration of the two-motor hybrid plug-in system offering significant improvements in battery capacity and power, the next-generation Honda PHEV will offer more than triple the 13-mile all-electric range of the Accord Plug-In Hybrid Sedan. This range will enable a zero emissions commute for the average American, while increases in power will enable EV operation at highway speeds.

This is consistent with the AC-X concept from 2011. Based on my knowledge of Honda, I would expect an Accord-sized sedan or liftback with 40-50 miles of EV range, and a 2.0L direct-injection DOHC i-VTEC engine as the long range backup.

This pretty much ends the controversy over whether Honda would go completely BEV or not. The answer is no, with 99.9% probability in my estimation. Honda will maintain the current strategy of in the near term using PHEVs for long range vehicles, BEVs for city cars, and FCEVs as their ultimate solution for moving away from petroleum fuels.

Given the engineering lead time between announcements and products, I do not believe that Honda intends to have a long-range BEV for sale in the 2018 time frame.

 

[ggies07]

wow, that's it eh? Poor Honda.....built such reliable and well priced cars and it's been the only type of car I've driven. But my next car will be an EV and so it won't be from them.....losing sales already.

 

[tftf]

This pretty much ends the controversy over whether Honda would go completely BEV or not. The answer is no, with 99.9% probability in my estimation. Honda will maintain the current strategy of in the near term using PHEVs for long range vehicles, BEVs for city cars, and FCEVs as their ultimate solution for moving away from petroleum fuels.

So the fact they didn't mention a BEV (planned for 2018 as well according to a Jan 2015 PR) in this particular PR makes you 99.9% certain?

Maybe the BEV will simply use a different platform and will therefore be announced separately.

We don't know so let's await 2018.

PS: Honda has shown a sporty BEV concept as well so they have different options for a BEV:

Honda's Electric Four-Motor CR-Z Prototype: We Drive It

 

[Caligula]

I love how someone in the comments said that Teslas SC Network has seen "abusive usage". No citation provided. Any truth to that? I can't find anything.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

So the fact they didn't mention a BEV (planned for 2018 as well according to a Jan 2015 PR) in this particular PR makes you 99.9% certain?

Maybe the BEV will simply use a different platform and will therefore be announced separately.

We don't know so let's await 2018.

PS: Honda has shown a sporty BEV concept as well so they have different options for a BEV:

Honda's Electric Four-Motor CR-Z Prototype: We Drive It

Honda's position is that the role of BEVs in its product lineup will be in shorter range city cars only. Any pure BEV is likely to be based on the Honda "global small car platform", which underlies products like the Honda City, Fit, HR-V, Insight, and CR-Z.

Hope all you want, but the management in Tokyo has made their decision. Even if they change course now and decide to build a long range pure BEV similar to Accord, it will be years after 2018. As far as Toyota and Honda are concerned, hydrogen is the future.

- - - Updated - - -

wow, that's it eh? Poor Honda.....built such reliable and well priced cars and it's been the only type of car I've driven. But my next car will be an EV and so it won't be from them.....losing sales already.

There are institutional factors that seem to hold Honda back. From an engineering perspective, the company has been very conservative in the past 10 years. They were one of the last to adopt Direct Injection fuel systems for their engines. While most of their competitors began adopting small displacement turbocharged engines years ago, Honda just started deploying its first 1.5L Turbo engine, first in the JDM StepWagn, and now in the USDM Honda Civic. Part of this is due to the fact that Honda was able to squeeze more power and efficiency out of its port injected, naturally aspirated engines than its competitors. Part of it is that Honda is often reluctant to use outside technology and ideas.

I have followed the Honda FCX program for many years, and the Honda management seems to be stuck in the notion that electric cars must be fueled at stations just like gasoline cars. This is why Honda has placed greatest emphasis on fuel cells for almost 2 decades.

 

[tftf]

Honda's position is that the role of BEVs in its product lineup will be in shorter range city cars only. Any pure BEV is likely to be based on the Honda "global small car platform", which underlies products like the Honda City, Fit, HR-V, Insight, and CR-Z.

Hope all you want, but the management in Tokyo has made their decision. Even if they change course now and decide to build a long range pure BEV similar to Accord, it will be years after 2018. As far as Toyota and Honda are concerned, hydrogen is the future.

Maybe you should read the quotes again, there will be three cars coming based on the Clarity platform: a FCEV, a PHEV and a BEV:

Honda Has Broader Plans for New Hydrogen Car Platform | TheDetroitBureau.com

Maybe the BEV will slip to 2019, but certainly not "years after".

Honda can't sell another short-range sedan of this size in 2018-2019 when the competition is offering 200 miles of range one year before (GM Bolt etc.). There will be range improvements for sure.

 

[Electroman]

Tftf - and your point is? Let me guess: Tesla is doomed if Honda makes a 200 miles BEV sometime before 2020?

 

[tftf]

Tftf - and your point is? Let me guess: Tesla is doomed if Honda makes a 200 miles BEV sometime before 2020?

My point is that Honda will offer an EV sedan by 2018-2019, once again increasing competition for the Model3.

PS: As for "Tesla is doomed", I have answered that one: Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread - Page 248

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My point is that Honda will offer an EV sedan by 2018-2019, once again increasing competition for the Model3.

PS: As for "Tesla is doomed", I have answered that one: Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread - Page 248

From the article you cited, there were no specifics:

Ryan Harty, Honda’s manager of environmental business, cautioned that the maker has to balance issues like weight, passenger space, cost and consumer needs when determining where to go with the Clarity BEV model.

From a vehicle architecture perspective, Honda is already behind the curve if they base a BEV on the Clarity FCX, because this FWD platform is designed to accommodate a PHEV powertrain. This necessitates an exhaust pipe channel underneath the car, which means Honda cannot use a skateboard-type battery pack. Instead, Honda will be likely forced to place a battery pack where the fuel cells and/or fuel tank are located, which has adverse effects on center of gravity and trunk space.

I understand why Honda does this. They are a smaller company and platform sharing is how they save money, but it results in non-optimal platforms. This approach has caused problems for Honda, particularly with its Acura-branded luxury cars, which are based on Honda FWD platforms. Even with SH-AWD, Acuras aren't even in the same handling class as their German rivals, which are almost all RWD. A Honda BEV that isn't designed to be a BEV from the start will almost certainly likewise be compromised in a number of attributes.

A Honda BEV based on Clarity will not realistically compete with a Model 3 any more than a Honda Accord competes with a BMW 3-series.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

My point is that Honda will offer an EV sedan by 2018-2019, once again increasing competition for the Model3.

PS: As for "Tesla is doomed", I have answered that one: Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread - Page 248

I'm trying to understand, with all of your time spent posting on other car manufacturers coming out with plug-in hybrids and EVs, if you are pro-EV or just anti-Tesla. Which is it?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm trying to understand, with all of your time spent posting on other car manufacturers coming out with plug-in hybrids and EVs, if you are pro-EV or just anti-Tesla. Which is it?

tftf's has publicly acknowledged holding short positions in TSLA in the past.

2013: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-(TSLA)/page83?p=507321&viewfull=1#post507321

2014: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/27376-I-m-not-related-to-JP-but-I-m-shorting-TSLA

The general direction of tftf's argument is that: (1) the capital expenses of the Gigafactory and Model 3 development are very high, and (2) competition in the BEV space from from established ICE automakers will depress Tesla's profit margins. The conclusion of this is that Tesla Motors will not ultimately have profitability to support current share price or higher projected share price.

A person or entity with acknowledged history of trading short positions in TSLA would have plenty of motive to sow FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) among investors in company. I do not know if this is tftf's motivation, but I see few if any other reasons (besides trolling, which I have seen from opponents of Honda Motor Co. on various Honda message boards) for anyone to consistently and simultaneously post negative things about Tesla and positive things about the competition.

Ultimately, I believe that most members of this board, for better and worse, have little impact over where the stock price goes. Despite all the cheerleading that goes on in the investor forum, TSLA has traded between 180-280 for most of the past 2 years. Despite all of the naysaying elsewhere, TSLA has not reverted to the 35 or below that was typical in the Roadster days.

Fan (and detractor) reactions to Honda Motor Co. go much the same way. Diehards defend the brand to the end, regardless of the gravity of Honda's mistakes of the past decade, namely: failing to invest in Acura as an independent business entity, too much platform sharing, and bizarre niche models that were ultimately a waste of limited R&D resources. Detractors, some of whom are trolls, on the other hand, can never acknowledge that Honda has done some things exceptionally well: engines that generate excellent real-world power per litre displacement, cars with best-in-class real world fuel economy, and interiors that are almost unbeatable in terms of space and function. For all the times I've heard: "GM will kill Honda" and "Ford will kill Honda" and "Toyota will kill Honda", it never happened. To this day, nobody makes a better overall mid-size mainstream sedan than the Honda Accord. Some cars do some things better, but right now no mid-size mainstream sedan does everything better than a Honda Accord. Nothing anyone said on any forum made any difference.

Unfortunately, this also means that Honda is unlikely to change its longstanding commitment to hydrogen vehicles either. A platform specific BEV from Honda (not platform shared with a hydrogen or gasoline car) will probably not be forthcoming until Honda is convinced that BEVs will win in the end. Honda has traditionally resisted drastic changes until forced to change. They refused to adopt Direct Injection in their engine heads, until it was clear that their port-injected engines could not make competitive torque. They refused to adopt turbocharging, until it was painfully clear that the Civic Si was maxed out and falling behind other sport compacts like the Focus RS. It will probably be the same way with BEV.