House resale value with Solar + 2x PW (San Diego)?

[TravelSD80]

I'm getting non-Tesla solar installed on my condo in San Diego early next year, and paying for the system in cash. I'm really on the fence about getting two PowerWalls. I don't need them for backup power, as I'm not in a fire prone area. It would be more for time shifting on my TOU5 plan, but I know the ROI for just time shifting really isn't there. It's also unclear how much, if any, SGIP rebate I would get. I don't plan on selling my condo anytime soon, but was wondering how much value solar + 2x PW2 would add to the property in SoCal? Taking into account the tax credit, would I at least break even on resale value for solar + PW?

I'm doing solar regardless of resale value, but if the consensus is I'd get (close to) back my money with the PWs then that might push me to get them now vs. just doing solar. I suspect I'll be staying put for 5+ years, but an unexpected move could happen sooner.

If it makes any difference my current resale value prior to solar/PW is somewhere in the mid to upper 800s. Would 6kW solar + 2x PW push up my property value by $30K?

Thoughts would be appreciated!

 

[Ostrichsak]

As long as it's not leased it does add to your home's value. Roughly 20% is what it's been adding to home values in Colorado lately. Not sure you'll get 20% on an $800k home in California though. That seems on the optimistic side. My guess is that you can expect maybe 80-90% or so of your solar solution investment, possibly less depending on buyer.

 

[bkp_duke]

I have serious doubts if solar+PW2 in SD County would push up resale by 30k. Anyone that values that is going to do the math themselves, and to be honest the cost per kW on solar is always on a downward trend. Premium panels like Sunpower also do not command a premium on resale on the home. Most buyers view solar as a commodity and price it as such.

 

[JayClark]

My wife is a realtor in AZ, and as long as it's not a rented/leased system, we've been seeing you can add between 30-60% of the installed PV system costs as a value-add for the Solar system on average, at least for systems 10 year old or younger. We don't have experience selling homes with older solar systems at this point, or rented systems.

Also, in Arizona, it seems the "pool" of buyers familiar with Solar, and comfortable with solar is smaller than those buyers that actually potentially "fear" solar (complexity, failure, leaking roofs, etc - for good reasons or not). So homes priced to include the value of the PV system are potentially excluding some buyers thus narrowing the potential buyer pool, at least to some degree - mostly meaning it can take a little longer to find that buyer that is looking to buy, at the same time we're looking to sell, and pay for the value add of the PV/PW system, when often there are many, many, similar homes available without solar at slightly lower prices. The ratio's may be reversed in CA, where most buyers there are solar savvy, and available home options without solar a fewer... or more competitive just in general - not sure.

Having said all that, from what I can tell the value add for solar on a home does not seem to work out to be a % of the homes value, the value add is more closely related to a percentage range of the installed system cost, with the factors driving to the value-add to either the lower or higher end of the range being dependent on how well the seller can demonstrate in a simple, understandable & believable manner, the savings on utilities compared to utilities for similar homes in the area, and the PV system age since the warranty/age of the system has to be disclosed at some point in the negotiating and contract/closing process. The value-add is more closely related to assessing the value a pool adds to a home, but maybe twice as complicated to place a value on for most buyers.

 

[TravelSD80]

Thanks for the great input! Since I won't be using the PWs for backup (and just for TOU time shifting), I think I will spend my money elsewhere and not on two 2x PWs. I am eager to get solar though!

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

I looked at doing something similar in Irvine/Turtle Rock and the ROI did not make financial sense.I would never do it, especially for a Condo.


Edit: TSLA stock is above $405 today. This is a better investment but dont buy it now.

 

[JayClark]

Thanks for the great input! Since I won't be using the PWs for backup (and just for TOU time shifting), I think I will spend my money elsewhere and not on two 2x PWs. I am eager to get solar though!

Yeah, I'm not sure I'd go forward on a condo.

Just for reference, I just recently did install PV and PWs, and choose the smallest solar system I could, but went with 4 PWs - as this was the best payoff period for my local scenario here in Arizona. It works out to a about 7.5 years payoff (including savings from my wife's electric volt charging at cheaper off-peak solar rates offered by my utility on the solar plan), but also including saving from replacing my normal driving of my truck with an electric car that I need to buy in the next 12 months (as currently calculated in the pay-off numbers).

But all of these calculations are completely dependent on using zero kWh's during all peaks, all year long. I could basically never payoff my system without the PWs on my utilities plan, but with four PWs (because of our hot summers, relatively large house, and the cost of AC - up to 150kWhrs in the summer of total daily use including AC and electric car) I can zero out all Peak usage, and still run my AC during peaks and stay very comfortable even in Arizona.

The PWs were the only way for me to shift to zero peak usage that almost always occur when the sun is not shining except for maybe during an hour or two of reduced production that overlaps with peaks - and just because of total peak draw and total cumulative usage during peaks, the four PWs were the only way to be able to run my two large AC units completely off PWs during peaks without pulling from the grid and still have a little slack for the occasionally cloudy days or week.

But the final part of the pay-off calculation was the question you asked about value add - and when I included even a 45% cost of system value-add, with demonstratable savings on utilities of about $2200 per year on a normal bill that used to be $3100, and savings on driving electric cars vs our current gas truck, my pay-off, break-even point at the point of sale of my home (if I had to) was down to about 4.5 years - which I thought was pretty nice. Again, that's including the value add of the PV/PW system at the point of home sale if for some unforeseen reason I had to sell, which otherwise the break-even doesn't hit until the 7.5 year point if I don't sell the home - which I don't plan to do.

 

[arnolddeleon]

The amount of value that solar (and batteries) add is going to less than what you pay for it for the simple reason that prices are still dropping. So in short don't do it because you think will get your money back when you sell.

To be clear I love solar. There are many good reasons to do it. If you care about the economic return then think about how long you are doing to have it. If you can recoup your costs in that time frame then great. You might also want to do it for enjoyment of it. That's no different that people buying a boat or spending $2000 on the acceleration upgrade for Model 3. The utility comes from enjoyment of having/using it. It doesn't always have to pencil it out economically.

For reference we recently bought a property in AZ with a leased Tesla (Solar City) PV system. We adjusted our offer downward to reflect the negative value of the current lease compared to what we could get today if didn't have solar. Our offer was accepted. I have two other properties with Tesla solar on them.