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How long do I have to wait for the 3

ChrisH

Active Member
Jun 4, 2013
2,288
1,053
Milton, wa
I am new here. Do not know much. But am looking to buy my first electric car. An S, X or 3.
If I plunk down $1000 now for the 3, how long will I have to wait?

Also, no unlimited free charging on the 3? Am I right? THANKS.

12-18 months according to Tesla if you aren’t a current Tesla owner. Also, yes supercharging costs money but is still cheaper than gas. It is even cheaper if you’re charging at home as owners should be.
 
Welcome @stevekk!

Correct, no free supercharging on the M3. But with a referral code from a current owner you can get unlimited on a new S or X - or (almost?) all CPO X and S come with unlimited supercharging, which could also potentially keep the vehicle price more in line with the M3.

Hang out here and search the threads, there is all kinds of great info on just about anything you can think of related to Tesla - if not there are plenty of people around here with lots of history that can answer most any question!
 
This will vary a lot on your electricity rate and how/what type of driving you do. I also drive about 12,000 miles per year. My rate is $.12 per kWh. The model 3 is rated at about 240 Wh/Mile which is about what my Nissan Leaf gets. So I spend about $350 a year on additional electricity.
 
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Most likely just making myself feel better with this (just recently reserved) but here goes anyway.

1. I think A LOT of reservation holders are deferring for standard battery and/or AWD. In fact, (from data in the "Invites tracking spreadsheet" linked from TMC) 64% of invitees in the last week have deferred for one reason or another. Something that bears this out a bit is next...

2. Assuming said spreadsheet is a good indicator of the trends/percentages across all US/Canada reservations, 80% of reservations to this point were day 1 or 2. Almost half of those have already been invited to configure. I know they just started some Canada invites. Everything I've seen/read has pointed to an even higher preference for AWD in Canada.


The big question at that point may be this: Once all day 1 reservation holders have been invited and either configured or deferred (only talking non-owners here) - keep in mind this day might be coming quicker than we think based on the defer rate referenced above - does Tesla then turn around and start building the other options? Or do they get through everyone else's invites regardless of reservation date (should happen really quickly) and clear the First Production config and then open up the options?

Assuming Tesla isn't going to suddenly break their stride in the ramp up and start offering different configurations, not to mention the financial reasons for Tesla building the expensive ones first, if you are one of the people who wants First Production (LR, PUP, RWD) I think we may be pleasantly surprised at how "quick" our number comes up.
 
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ChrisH

Active Member
Jun 4, 2013
2,288
1,053
Milton, wa
Most likely just making myself feel better with this (just recently reserved) but here goes anyway.

1. I think A LOT of reservation holders are deferring for standard battery and/or AWD. In fact, (from data in the "Invites tracking spreadsheet" linked from TMC) 64% of invitees in the last week have deferred for one reason or another. Something that bears this out a bit is next...

2. Assuming said spreadsheet is a good indicator of the trends/percentages across all US/Canada reservations, 80% of reservations to this point were day 1 or 2. Almost half of those have already been invited to configure. I know they just started some Canada invites. Everything I've seen/read has pointed to an even higher preference for AWD in Canada.


The big question at that point may be this: Once all day 1 reservation holders have been invited and either configured or deferred (only talking non-owners here) - keep in mind this day might be coming quicker than we think based on the defer rate referenced above - does Tesla then turn around and start building the other options? Or do they get through everyone else's invites regardless of reservation date (should happen really quickly) and clear the First Production config and then open up the options?

Assuming Tesla isn't going to suddenly break their stride in the ramp up and start offering different configurations, not to mention the financial reasons for Tesla building the expensive ones first, if you are one of the people who wants First Production (LR, PUP, RWD) I think we may be pleasantly surprised at how "quick" our number comes up.

This is interesting. I don’t really want to spend the extra $10,000 (with tax) extra for long range but it might be tempting if they offer me this option sooner rather than later having only reserved less than 2 months ago. If I can get the full tax credit I probably would jump at the chance but am not getting my hopes up that I will be invited in time for that to happen.
 
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If I can get the full tax credit I probably would jump at the chance but am not getting my hopes up that I will be invited in time for that to happen.
If you haven't reserved yet, I'd say your chances for a full tax credit are close to zero. In the best scenario, full tax credit will run thru the end of 2018. By Q2 end they will likely deliver ~20K M3s and assuming 5k/week production rate at the end of Q2 AND no deliveries outside U.S. during Q3, Q4 (unlikely), they can make ~26*5,000=130K cars eligible for a full credit. They might be able to increase output some between Q2 and Q4, but they will also deliver outside U.S., so ballpark of MAX sold in U.S. with full credit will be ~150K.
I believe the current orders are over 400K, some say 445K of which half are likely international orders, i.e. 200K+ U.S. orders in front of you.
But you may qualify for $3750 credit, which will likely last thru Q2 of 2019.
 

ChrisH

Active Member
Jun 4, 2013
2,288
1,053
Milton, wa
If you haven't reserved yet, I'd say your chances for a full tax credit are close to zero. In the best scenario, full tax credit will run thru the end of 2018. By Q2 end they will likely deliver ~20K M3s and assuming 5k/week production rate at the end of Q2 AND no deliveries outside U.S. during Q3, Q4 (unlikely), they can make ~26*5,000=130K cars eligible for a full credit. They might be able to increase output some between Q2 and Q4, but they will also deliver outside U.S., so ballpark of MAX sold in U.S. with full credit will be ~150K.
I believe the current orders are over 400K, some say 445K of which half are likely international orders, i.e. 200K+ U.S. orders in front of you.
But you may qualify for $3750 credit, which will likely last thru Q2 of 2019.

Oh I’m fully expecting not to be able to even have a chance at the full credit. Tesla says late 2018 for first production for me even though I reserved in February of this year. I can’t see how that would be possible. There were like 450,000 reservations in front of me. I mean I guess if enough people deferred to the SR battery or AWD or P edition the MAYBE I have a chance at getting a first production this year. Ideally I would be getting an SR version but a full tax credit first production would be less than $2500 more if the full tax credit is factored in. Might be worth the leap if it offers a chance at getting the car this year and long range. But....I’m going to assume they will open up AWD and many many people ahead of me will want those cars so it will push me to sometime in 2019 which means I will likely opt for an SR version hoping for a $3750 tax credit.
 
Really? That’s interesting. In WA we have some of the cheapest electricity (8-10 per) and I think it was “only” about a 50-60% savings. Still great obviously but I’d be interested to see how the 80% savings pans out in CA

If I drove 1000 miles in my old car (Nissan Altima) around LA, I would average about 22mpg. I'd use 45.5 gallons of gas. Average price of a gallon is $3.58, so that would cost me $163.

If I drive 1000 miles in my Model 3 and get 240Wh/mi, that would use 240kWh. I pay $0.15/kWh so that would cost me $36.

$36 / $163 = 0.22, so the electricity is costing me 22% of what the gas would.
 
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ChrisH

Active Member
Jun 4, 2013
2,288
1,053
Milton, wa
If I drove 1000 miles in my old car (Nissan Altima) around LA, I would average about 22mpg. I'd use 45.5 gallons of gas. Average price of a gallon is $3.58, so that would cost me $163.

If I drive 1000 miles in my Model 3 and get 240Wh/mi, that would use 240kWh. I pay $0.15/kWh so that would cost me $36.

$36 / $163 = 0.22, so the electricity is costing me 22% of what the gas would.

Ah okay. I guess it depends on the vehicle. I think the most “fair” way to do it would be to compare with the gas mileage of cars the model 3 is directly competing with (3 series, A4, etc). I don’t know what their gas mileage’s are but maybe better than 22mpg.

Teslerati’s calculator says it would cost me $13 a month to charge a model 3 for me (500 Miles a month at .10 per kWh) and I currently spend about $55/mo on my Elantra so I guess that’s a 75% savings as well. Fair enough. Haha
 
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Hi,

I ordered my Model 3 (everything except Full Autopilot) almost 2 weeks ago. I still don't have a VIN(At least I don't see one, I see the Reservation Number, and all the Completed Steps. I'm in Southern Taxifornia. When do you think I'll get my car?
compositor
 
Hi,

I ordered my Model 3 (everything except Full Autopilot) almost 2 weeks ago. I still don't have a VIN(At least I don't see one, I see the Reservation Number, and all the Completed Steps. I'm in Southern Taxifornia. When do you think I'll get my car?
compositor
I configured on April 10th, and also don’t have a VIN yet. I reserved 2 years 1 month and 4 days ago.

For me, hoping for a VIN within the next week, but it could be two or more.

For you, probably 12 to 18 months.

Sucks, eh? :)
 
If I drove 1000 miles in my old car (Nissan Altima) around LA, I would average about 22mpg. I'd use 45.5 gallons of gas. Average price of a gallon is $3.58, so that would cost me $163.

If I drive 1000 miles in my Model 3 and get 240Wh/mi, that would use 240kWh. I pay $0.15/kWh so that would cost me $36.

$36 / $163 = 0.22, so the electricity is costing me 22% of what the gas would.
I'm replying to this just so I can find it easily when I go to do my own calculations, lol.
 

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