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How Many Model 3 Reservations will Tesla book in 2016?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Cattledog, Feb 11, 2016.

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How Many Model 3 Reservations will Tesla book in 2016?

  1. <100,000

    15 vote(s)
    19.7%
  2. 100,000-250,000

    37 vote(s)
    48.7%
  3. 250,000-500,000

    14 vote(s)
    18.4%
  4. 500,000-1,000,000

    7 vote(s)
    9.2%
  5. >1,000,000

    3 vote(s)
    3.9%
  1. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Tesla will start taking reservations for Model 3 on March 31st, 2016. How many will they take in 2016?
     
  2. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

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  3. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    BTW - I think the idea of taking reservations in showrooms is a great concept - in some locations you'll see lines outside and that will attract press and bring Tesla in front of a different crowd.
     
  4. purplewalt

    purplewalt Active Member

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    Reservations would be for world-wide --- correct?

    China alone might be off the charts.
    Some cities the only sure way to have a car license is for the vehicle to be an EV.
     
  5. Jamriman

    Jamriman Member

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    More importantly, how long will it take to ship those reservations.
     
  6. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

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    Oh no! I voted 250000-500000 for total reservation till 2017 end. Whoops!
     
  7. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Yes, worldwide.
     
  8. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    If the reservation would be for free, I think we could easily see >500k reservations. Since it is 1000$, I think we can expect two groups of people reserve:

    a) US residents who want to get in line before the 7500 federal tax credit expires - and here you really put your reservation down ASAP, otherwise I think it will be very tight and you may miss out - also a 1000 USD refundable reservation is a very reasonable thing to do in order to gain 7500 tax credit. I think this could be anywhere from 100k to 150k people for 2016. I expect the big wave of this come in early.

    b) Die-hard Tesla fans who are - for whatever reason - just waiting for the Model 3. I don't think that's much more than 100k so early in the process. I see this as a much longer / more evenly drawn out process
     
  9. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    The real key for US residents will be how quickly Tesla is manufacturing the Model 3. The full $7,500 tax credit survives for 2 quarters after they hit their 200,000th car. If they are producing 1,000 Model 3s/week for US consumption when they hit 200,000 aggregate, 26,000 more people will get the credit. If they are producing 5,000/week, 130,000 more people will get the credit. Tesla would create humongous goodwill by an exponential ramp and high production capacity in that first six months after 200,000. I am sure the tax law writers did not imagine a scenarion like Model 3 - they imagined a manufacturer taking 10 years to sell 200K and thus granting the full credit for 6 more months would be only, say, 10,000 more cars. I hope Tesla is 10x that.
     
  10. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    I guessed 250-500k and am going to guess 275,374 global reservations in 2016 and think they will have over 500,000 reservations before production begins in late 2017.
     

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