Tesla will start taking reservations for Model 3 on March 31st, 2016. How many will they take in 2016?
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BTW - I think the idea of taking reservations in showrooms is a great concept - in some locations you'll see lines outside and that will attract press and bring Tesla in front of a different crowd.
purplewalt
Active Member
Reservations would be for world-wide --- correct?
China alone might be off the charts.
Some cities the only sure way to have a car license is for the vehicle to be an EV.
China alone might be off the charts.
Some cities the only sure way to have a car license is for the vehicle to be an EV.
SebastianR
Active Member
If the reservation would be for free, I think we could easily see >500k reservations. Since it is 1000$, I think we can expect two groups of people reserve:
a) US residents who want to get in line before the 7500 federal tax credit expires - and here you really put your reservation down ASAP, otherwise I think it will be very tight and you may miss out - also a 1000 USD refundable reservation is a very reasonable thing to do in order to gain 7500 tax credit. I think this could be anywhere from 100k to 150k people for 2016. I expect the big wave of this come in early.
b) Die-hard Tesla fans who are - for whatever reason - just waiting for the Model 3. I don't think that's much more than 100k so early in the process. I see this as a much longer / more evenly drawn out process
a) US residents who want to get in line before the 7500 federal tax credit expires - and here you really put your reservation down ASAP, otherwise I think it will be very tight and you may miss out - also a 1000 USD refundable reservation is a very reasonable thing to do in order to gain 7500 tax credit. I think this could be anywhere from 100k to 150k people for 2016. I expect the big wave of this come in early.
b) Die-hard Tesla fans who are - for whatever reason - just waiting for the Model 3. I don't think that's much more than 100k so early in the process. I see this as a much longer / more evenly drawn out process
The real key for US residents will be how quickly Tesla is manufacturing the Model 3. The full $7,500 tax credit survives for 2 quarters after they hit their 200,000th car. If they are producing 1,000 Model 3s/week for US consumption when they hit 200,000 aggregate, 26,000 more people will get the credit. If they are producing 5,000/week, 130,000 more people will get the credit. Tesla would create humongous goodwill by an exponential ramp and high production capacity in that first six months after 200,000. I am sure the tax law writers did not imagine a scenarion like Model 3 - they imagined a manufacturer taking 10 years to sell 200K and thus granting the full credit for 6 more months would be only, say, 10,000 more cars. I hope Tesla is 10x that.
dc_h
Active Member
I guessed 250-500k and am going to guess 275,374 global reservations in 2016 and think they will have over 500,000 reservations before production begins in late 2017.
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