How will Tesla demo FSD?

[diplomat33]

This is why a demo makes no sense. If they’re really six months from hands free as Elon says they should be way beyond demos. They should be validating the system over millions of miles with their employee FSD testing program. I’m thinking they might not actually release FSD in six months.

Demos are still useful to show the public what you have though. That's why the April 22 event should be informative. It will actually show us what they have right now. But I personally doubt that Tesla will release hands off FSD in 6 months. But my guess is that we will get some FSD features in 6 months but will still require hands on wheel.

 

[CarlK]

Demos are still useful to show the public what you have though. That's why the April 22 event should be informative. It will actually show us what they have right now. But I personally doubt that Tesla will release hands off FSD in 6 months. But my guess is that we will get some FSD features in 6 months but will still require hands on wheel.

Demo is useful. But it has to be real and verified by a third party observer. Edited videos are not. I can produce an edited video to show that I am the greatest 3 point shooter ever lived.

 

[diplomat33]

Demo is useful. But it has to be real and verified by a third party observer. Edited videos are not. I can produce an edited video to show that I am the greatest 3 point shooter ever lived.

True. But demo doesn't just mean a video, it could mean a test drive too. I am talking about the test drives on April 22. Those are not edited and should give us an idea of where Tesla is at with FSD.

 

[Daniel in SD]

True. But demo doesn't just mean a video, it could mean a test drive too. I am talking about the test drives on April 22. Those are not edited and should give us an idea of where Tesla is at with FSD.

Plenty of other companies have given test rides. How do we take that data and determine how far away they are from autonomous operation? Humans get into accidents every 150,000 miles. It's going to be a very long test ride to get anything meaningful!

 

[ZeApelido]

So to sum up, Tesla currently has the best in class driver assistance features that are improving, and they are about to release hardware/software that is likely going to be significantly better than current. So for personal cars, they will likely be the leader in driver assist technology.

They plan to illustrate these improvements through demos and test rides. So what's the problem?

If you are focused on pure driverless FSD L5, then I'm afraid you will be disappointed.

 

[Daniel in SD]

If you are focused on pure driverless FSD L5, then I'm afraid you will be disappointed.

Level 3 would be incredible and would make them the leader since no one else has released it yet. It's called the "Autonomy Investor Day"!

 

[buttershrimp]

Lmfao this is what the hype is about?

Beetlejuice blader is back! My First prediction just came true!

 

[buttershrimp]

I will tell you why it was not only not-exciting but also too boring.

Where are the flashlights and disco lights? where is the revolving stage? And shouldn't your car be on that stage with a nice silk cloth covering it? I can ignore all that, BUT:

Where are the bikini clad sexy women, who are supposed to pull the cloth covering the car and gesticulating sexily with their pretty hands towards the car? - That is a crime and unheard of in the annals of auto show history.

I will never buy a car that does not have pretty half clad women in the unveiling.

Musk thinks we are too stupid to listen and get carried away to his stuttering on the topics of sustainable energy, global warming, electrification, battery size, range, power, production etc.. who cares?

He should have one-upped those legacy manufacturers and brought in naked women.. ya.. right. That will show them who is in the lead.

Maybe like this?

 

[CarlK]

Beetlejuice blader is back! My First prediction just came true!

What was the prediction? I was thinking he needs to do something to get paid.

 

[CarlK]

Plenty of other companies have given test rides. How do we take that data and determine how far away they are from autonomous operation? Humans get into accidents every 150,000 miles. It's going to be a very long test ride to get anything meaningful!

Tesla's has produced billions of test miles already.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Tesla's has produced billions of test miles already.

That should be more than enough to get the system approved as a level 3-5 system if it's statistically safer than a human.

 

[CarlK]

That should be more than enough to get the system approved as a level 3-5 system if it's statistically safer than a human.

If and when self driving cars can be proven to be many times safer than human drivers what in danger of losing the driving privilege would be human drivers. Enjoy it while we can.

 

[oneday]

If and when self driving cars can be proven to be many times safer than human drivers what in danger of losing the driving privilege would be human drivers. Enjoy it while we can.

They can take our driving privileges, but they’ll never take our

........ oh, wait....

 

[EVNow]

If and when self driving cars can be proven to be many times safer than human drivers what in danger of losing the driving privilege would be human drivers. Enjoy it while we can.

More likely, insurance will become very expensive ...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Here is my prediction for the 4/11/19 FSD demo. Did I miss anything?
It should show data in a new way or with more detail. Evertime I see one, it changes so I'm ready. We will see more cameras in use, maybe 360. Imagine doing lane changes and seeing all of the options and risks simultaneously. Lane changes between cars might be the best use case IMO for F/R camera coordination. This won't be the same'ol this time.
I also expect other vehicles to do "bad driver" moves, choreographed to show how it responds to daily driving jerks. If they don't, what a huge missed opportunity. My existing version could show some of this already. The other actors (cars) should do the following to, or with, the Model 3 while using FSD. Goal will be to communicate SAFETY in a crazy world, better than average driver, and smoothly.

1. Cut off in front
2. Lane next door, moves into you
3. Slam breaks ahead
4. Swerve out of lane with car stopped ahead (best if a Fire Truck)
5. Merge from right on-ramp
6. Red light normal, and red light warning on ignore for EAP only.
7. Clarification of EAP and FSD, eventually.
8. SUPER Mad Max, high speed.
9. Parking lot everything.
10. Key features we have today.
11. A new feature TBA.
12. Maybe a left turn at the most insane intersection, with other car running the light.
13. Slow motion with clock comparing human vs FSD reaction times. This will be good!

We will then get summon and stop light/sign for all to download, celebrating this victorious day for Tesla, faithfull owners, and our planet, that ties back to numerous charts on why Tesla will soon own FSD and not just be the leader. Tesla Network proto App reveal -possibly with earnings potential... compare to Uber.

This is my prediction for April 22.

 

[Daniel in SD]

My final prediction, this, only with a better looking car

 

[diplomat33]

My final prediction, this, only with a better looking car

That video is from 2010. Correct me if I am wrong but Google did not use machine or neural nets. Rather Google just used that big a** LIDAR and other hardware for detection coupled with hard coded software to guide the car on certain roads. What Tesla and others are doing with machine learning today is much more sophisticated than what Google did in that video.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That video is from 2010. Correct me if I am wrong but Google did not use machine or neural nets.

Are you sure they didn't use neural nets? The former head of the Google self driving car project used neural nets in the vehicle that won the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge (Meet ALVINN, the self-driving car from 1989).

. Rather Google just used that big a** LIDAR and other hardware for detection coupled with hard coded software to guide the car on certain roads. What Tesla and others are doing with machine learning today is much more sophisticated than what Google did in that video.

That's why I said Tesla's car would be better looking! My point is that the demo will be the same not that the technology used to do it will be exactly the same. Watching the Google demos in 2010 you might think that self-driving cars were right around the corner
The video is also interesting because it shows that Google's initial plan was to develop a level 3 system where the driver would be responsible for taking over very quickly if the car encountered a problem. They later dumped that plan after drivers were found to be sleeping behind the wheel in their tests.

 

[CarlK]

That's why I said Tesla's car would be better looking! My point is that the demo will be the same not that the technology used to do it will be exactly the same. Watching the Google demos in 2010 you might think that self-driving cars were right around the corner
The video is also interesting because it shows that Google's initial plan was to develop a level 3 system where the driver would be responsible for taking over very quickly if the car encountered a problem. They later dumped that plan after drivers were found to be sleeping behind the wheel in their tests.

The original Google self driving car development was under the X lab moonshot project. It had no practical purpose in mind but just to see what it will lead them to. It will use whatever was available, including Lidar, that could do the job. If refrigerator could make it to work they would have no problem putting a refrigerator on top of the car roof. It was only later when they found that they were onto something useful that they made it a real program and formed Waymo. By that time use of Lidar is fixed whether it's the best approach at the time or not.

As always the case other companies went into autonomous car development would just do it by analog and use whatever had been "proven" by Waymo. Only Elon who always stress that he does engineering design by the first principle would deviate from that and used a totally different approach. Which is to use cheaper cameras and put them into every car to enable crowd sourced machine learning. It's still too early to say which approach will win but the sign is clearer everyday that Elon is right again.

 

[Daniel in SD]

The original Google self driving car development was under the X lab moonshot project. It had no practical purpose in mind but just to see what it will lead them to. It will use whatever was available, including Lidar, that could do the job. If refrigerator could make it to work they would have no problem putting a refrigerator on top of the car roof. It was only later when they found that they were onto something useful that they made it a real program and formed Waymo. By that time use of Lidar is fixed whether it's the best approach at the time or not.

The purpose of autonomous vehicle technology is to make all vehicles autonomous. I'm pretty sure everyone has known that for decades. They initially were working on a driver assist system but decided that it was unsafe and moved on to developing level 4-5 autonomy. The obsession in this forum with the use of Lidar is very confusing to me. The most difficult parts of FSD are not solved by Lidar. If they were then we would already have autonomous vehicles and companies would be trying to make them cheaper by using a camera only approach. Is there some reason why distance information generated by Lidar couldn't be replaced by a camera based or high resolution radar system at a later date?

As always the case other companies went into autonomous car development would just do it by analog and use whatever had been "proven" by Waymo. Only Elon who always stress that he does engineering design by the first principle would deviate from that and used a totally different approach. Which is to use cheaper cameras and put them into every car to enable crowd sourced machine learning. It's still too early to say which approach will win but the sign is clearer everyday that Elon is right again.

Clearer everyday? There is zero evidence that Elon is right. Elon says that Teslas will be capable of "hands free" driving in six months so I guess we'll know soon how right he is about that...