How will Tesla demo FSD?

[T-Will]

Seeing the improvements in navigate on Autopilot just in the last few months, gives me a good feeling that we will see some rapid improvements in Tesla’s overall self-driving features throughout this year. Really looking forward to Monday’s event.

 

[DrDabbles]

Hopefully much more exciting than the Y event.

People dumping on the Y event. I don't get it at all. Tesla released the exact vehicle they promised, exactly on time, and they're taking orders for delivery next year. They're releasing a vehicle at the most popular price point into the most popular market segment at the critical inflection point where consumers are becoming much more aware of EVs and their benefits, and they're beating their nearest competition by at least a year.

How is that not exciting?

 

[DrDabbles]

So which car models?

They claim to be shipping but I haven't seen info about which models they're in.

There's a reason for that. All the vehicles that hyped their use of EyeQ3, and all the vehicles that MobilEye hyped as using EyeQ3 have all either disabled it, or severely hobbled it. Audi is the classic example- They had a huge marketing campaign in the US and Europe at least. The car would totally park itself, it would find a spot for you and park itself autonomously, it would handle most of your commute all on its own, etc. They basically said it's level 3 and ready to go.

Except it wasn't. At all. It turns out that giving long speeches about all the amazing things your company has been working on doesn't actually make up for the fact that you stalled all development for years while competitors popped up around you like weeds. And now, EyeQ4 is supposed to be their revolutionary product, ready for a brave new autonomous world. But since they never quite got EyeQ3 working, EyeQ4 doesn't have a chance. MobilEye, for everything that everyone says they do so right, has always been vaporware when it comes to self driving vehicles.

 

[thewishmaster]

Lmfao this is what the hype is about?

This looks like the same setup as the NoA video from October, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is just another marketing video for NoA (unconfirmed lane changes?). That route wouldn't make sense for a "complete FSD" demo video.

 

[ChrML]

There's a reason for that. All the vehicles that hyped their use of EyeQ3, and all the vehicles that MobilEye hyped as using EyeQ3 have all either disabled it, or severely hobbled it. Audi is the classic example- They had a huge marketing campaign in the US and Europe at least. The car would totally park itself, it would find a spot for you and park itself autonomously, it would handle most of your commute all on its own, etc. They basically said it's level 3 and ready to go.

Except it wasn't. At all. It turns out that giving long speeches about all the amazing things your company has been working on doesn't actually make up for the fact that you stalled all development for years while competitors popped up around you like weeds. And now, EyeQ4 is supposed to be their revolutionary product, ready for a brave new autonomous world. But since they never quite got EyeQ3 working, EyeQ4 doesn't have a chance. MobilEye, for everything that everyone says they do so right, has always been vaporware when it comes to self driving vehicles.

This is also why I like Tesla's strategy best. They could be more transparent... but if you buy a Tesla with FSD today there may be 10-20% chance of all the self-driving features being fully released in a reasonable time scope. But if you buy any other car, there is a 0% chance of your car getting self-driving features.

 

[electronblue]

There's a reason for that. All the vehicles that hyped their use of EyeQ3, and all the vehicles that MobilEye hyped as using EyeQ3 have all either disabled it, or severely hobbled it. Audi is the classic example- They had a huge marketing campaign in the US and Europe at least. The car would totally park itself, it would find a spot for you and park itself autonomously, it would handle most of your commute all on its own, etc. They basically said it's level 3 and ready to go.

Except it wasn't. At all. It turns out that giving long speeches about all the amazing things your company has been working on doesn't actually make up for the fact that you stalled all development for years while competitors popped up around you like weeds. And now, EyeQ4 is supposed to be their revolutionary product, ready for a brave new autonomous world. But since they never quite got EyeQ3 working, EyeQ4 doesn't have a chance. MobilEye, for everything that everyone says they do so right, has always been vaporware when it comes to self driving vehicles.

Tesla is actually the best evidence against your argument: Autopilot 1 made great use of EyeQ3, far better than anyone else at the time and arguably possibly even better than anyone or many have since. MobilEye makes great chips and software for machine vision. OEMs make very poor use of them in general though and/or are very slow in the movements. It is too bad Tesla did not integrate that wide camera to EyeQ3 during the Model X launch (instead shipping it with a masking plastic)... they would have done great things together but alas then Tesla overextended on the nagless front and Joshua Brown happened..

Audi’s self-parking in a large parking garage by the way is Level 4 and it was never meant to be released yet. It is true their Level 3 highway traffic-jam pilot has been delayed but it was never destined to start in the U.S. either, it is headed for Audi’s home market Germany first (just like Tesla’s NoA is nowhere to be seen in Europe).

 

[diplomat33]

That phrase, "that are under active development" is the key here.

So don't expect an end to end FSD demo. It will show case a few critical capabilities that highlights the promise of near-future FSD, that will take more time to develop and mature into a production product.

I say that is perfectly fair.

Yes, that is fair and exactly what I am expecting. Which is why I am expecting a demo of some city driving with traffic lights and intersections since those features currently under development.

 

[diplomat33]

The official Tesla youtube channel has started a livestream reminder for the "Autonomy Investor Day" event. It will be April 22 at 2pm live on youtube here:

 

[CarlK]

Lmfao this is what the hype is about?

I just read this on Eletreck. Some commentors mentioned this is a FUD spread on the TSLAQ site. Are you in anyway related to that group? That could explain everything. Don't be shy unless if you think it's not a good thing.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There's a reason for that. All the vehicles that hyped their use of EyeQ3, and all the vehicles that MobilEye hyped as using EyeQ3 have all either disabled it, or severely hobbled it. Audi is the classic example- They had a huge marketing campaign in the US and Europe at least. The car would totally park itself, it would find a spot for you and park itself autonomously, it would handle most of your commute all on its own, etc. They basically said it's level 3 and ready to go.

Except it wasn't. At all. It turns out that giving long speeches about all the amazing things your company has been working on doesn't actually make up for the fact that you stalled all development for years while competitors popped up around you like weeds. And now, EyeQ4 is supposed to be their revolutionary product, ready for a brave new autonomous world. But since they never quite got EyeQ3 working, EyeQ4 doesn't have a chance. MobilEye, for everything that everyone says they do so right, has always been vaporware when it comes to self driving vehicles.

Exactly, the ability to do cool looking demos isn’t a great predictor of being able to get a product to market. It’s relatively easy to make FSD demos but getting safety far superior to a human turns out to be extremely difficult.

 

[CarlK]

@tomc603 @Daniel in SD Those are exactly how I felt for years about Mobileye and reason for numerous debates with Mobileye fans/trolls on this forum. Something is very wrong for that company when all you have to show are powerpoints and videos. And then you have to keep on inventing new stories when things did not pan out.

Not too long ago Mobileye pooh-pooh'd the idea of NN machine learning Waymo was doing. Matter of fact that was what Tesla was doing independent of Mobileye too and source of conflict between the two companies. All of sudden Amon and Mobileye became experts (which they certainly are not) on ML now when people started to believe that's the right approach.
Mobileye Bullish on Full Automation, but Pooh-Poohs Deep-Learning AI for Robocars

 

[Electroman]

How is that not exciting?

I will tell you why it was not only not-exciting but also too boring.

Where are the flashlights and disco lights? where is the revolving stage? And shouldn't your car be on that stage with a nice silk cloth covering it? I can ignore all that, BUT:

Where are the bikini clad sexy women, who are supposed to pull the cloth covering the car and gesticulating sexily with their pretty hands towards the car? - That is a crime and unheard of in the annals of auto show history.

I will never buy a car that does not have pretty half clad women in the unveiling.

Musk thinks we are too stupid to listen and get carried away to his stuttering on the topics of sustainable energy, global warming, electrification, battery size, range, power, production etc.. who cares?

He should have one-upped those legacy manufacturers and brought in naked women.. ya.. right. That will show them who is in the lead.

 

[diplomat33]

I will tell you why it was not only not-exciting but also too boring.

Where are the flashlights and disco lights? where is the revolving stage? And shouldn't your car be on that stage with a nice silk cloth covering it? I can ignore all that, BUT:

Where are the bikini clad sexy women, who are supposed to pull the cloth covering the car and gesticulating sexily with their pretty hands towards the car? - That is a crime and unheard of in the annals of auto show history.

I will never buy a car that does not have pretty half clad women in the unveiling.

Silly Elon for not using bikini clad cheerleaders! He just wows the crowd with a new Tesla roadster coming out of the back of a truck.

 

[Electroman]

More importantly Waymo's success a decade ago hasn't translated into a functional product.

MobileEye EyeQ4 can do it. The problem is that doing FSD demos isn't all that useful.

The problem is I don't care about how advanced your demo videos are. I only care what my car does. And my Tesla can do much much more than any of those Waymo cars that I cannot buy. End of story.

 

[diplomat33]

The problem is I don't care about how advanced your demo videos are. I only care what my car does. And my Tesla can do much much more than any of those Waymo cars that I cannot buy. End of story.

No, the Waymo cars can do more than our Tesla car. The problem is that we cannot buy the Waymo car so the fact that they can do more is useless to us.

 

[zhu-]

People dumping on the Y event. I don't get it at all. Tesla released the exact vehicle they promised, exactly on time, and they're taking orders for delivery next year. They're releasing a vehicle at the most popular price point into the most popular market segment at the critical inflection point where consumers are becoming much more aware of EVs and their benefits, and they're beating their nearest competition by at least a year.

How is that not exciting?

Because a blog post and 15 second video of just the Y would have achieved most of the same. I agree the existence and progress of the Y is exciting, but the event was objectively a boring event. Not to mention if it just drove on stage without an announcement many would thought it was just a 3.

 

[Daniel in SD]

No, the Waymo cars can do more than our Tesla car. The problem is that we cannot buy the Waymo car so the fact that they can do more is useless to us.

The Waymo cars would be useless even if you could buy them. Waymo has to pay people to drive them. They do make awesome demos though!

 

[diplomat33]

The Waymo cars would be useless even if you could buy them. Waymo has to pay people to drive them. They do make awesome demos though!

Well, but if we could buy one and we owned the car, we could be the safety drivers so I guess that would work too. But the other issue though is whether the Waymo cars will perform as well in other geographical areas or do they only work well in Phoenix where Waymo has ultra HD maps for the cars? I have only seen Waymo cars operate in Phoenix. Presumably, they would still work but maybe not as well if they rely on specific maps to function properly.

 

[CarlK]

Well, but if we could buy one and we owned the car, we could be the safety drivers so I guess that would work too. But the other issue though is whether the Waymo cars will perform as well in other geographical areas or do they only work well in Phoenix where Waymo has ultra HD maps for the cars? I have only seen Waymo cars operate in Phoenix. Presumably, they would still work but maybe not as well if they rely on specific maps to function properly.

This is the biggest difference between Tesla and Waymo, and everyone else. Regardless of what cars you can buy Tesla is the only one you can take to anywhere you want to. Others you most likely wouldn't even be able to have it to drive in the street your house sits.

 

[Daniel in SD]

This is the biggest difference between Tesla and Waymo, and everyone else. Regardless of what cars you can buy Tesla is the only one you can take to anywhere you want to. Others you most likely wouldn't even be able to have it to drive in the street your house sits.

This is why a demo makes no sense. If they’re really six months from hands free as Elon says they should be way beyond demos. They should be validating the system over millions of miles with their employee FSD testing program. I’m thinking they might not actually release FSD in six months.