How will Tesla make their next-gen sedan even cheaper?

[Laban]

Not saying that there's anything wrong with the Unity but Tesla should focus on "replacing" the global top selling cars. And that's the Ford F-150, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Nissan X-Trail and VW Golf.

And the piece that's missing there is a cheaper crossover. The Golf, Civic, Corolla (compact version) will get the VW I.D. And there's also the Kona, e-Niro available. At least on paper

But the station wagon versions of the Corolla (Touring Sports) and the cheaper version of the RAV4, CR-V, X-Trail could all be "replaced" by a cheaper ~4.4m electric SUV/crossover. That's also where the market is when looking beyond any specific models:

 

[bhtooefr]

Another factor is that Musk was talking about a $25,000 car specifically.

During the autonomy investor day, we actually found out what that car is. It's not a different model. It's a Model 3 that's incapable of being human driven.

 

[Brando]

Daimler and Geely to develop next generation Smart car | Malay Mail

 

[FreqFlyer]

How will Tesla make the next gen vehicles cheaper? Using tech like this.

Tesla Model Y manufacturing improvements highlighted in published patent application

 

[ratsbew]

I am becoming increasing convinced based on things that I've heard through the grapevine that Tesla may be close to PRODUCTION of a $25,000 model (family). The pickup event just might have a "one more thing" that will turn the world upside down. Hint: GF3 in China won't be making the 3 in Q4 2019.

This is personal speculation based on information that I have heard and pieced together from various sources. Take it for what it's worth.

 

[Watts_Up]

I am becoming increasing convinced based on things that I've heard through the grapevine
that Tesla may be close to PRODUCTION of a $25,000 model (family).

The pickup event just might have a "one more thing" that will turn the world upside down.
Hint: GF3 in China won't be making the 3 in Q4 2019.

This is personal speculation based on information that I have heard and pieced together from various sources. Take it for what it's worth.

Note: I doubt that there will be a "one more thing" that will steal the show from the already over exciting pickup presentation.

I wonder how much your "sources" are reliable, but certainly a more compact version of the Model 3 would more practical for city driving.

I remember Elon Musk mentioning the possible start of Tesla operation in India by the end of 2019,

so this (speculative sketch) Model 2 would certainly be very popular in Europe, Asia, India, South America, and even in North America.

 

[ratsbew]

Yes, a global hatch is what I've heard. Not even sure if it will make it to the US.

 

[ZeApelido]

I am becoming increasing convinced based on things that I've heard through the grapevine that Tesla may be close to PRODUCTION of a $25,000 model (family). The pickup event just might have a "one more thing" that will turn the world upside down. Hint: GF3 in China won't be making the 3 in Q4 2019.

This is personal speculation based on information that I have heard and pieced together from various sources. Take it for what it's worth.

Wow thats quite the speculation! What are some of the bits of info that lead you there?

 

[ilosi]

What if there will NOT be one? In a 'ride the lighting' podcast Musk said that they don't know how to make a cheaper car for now. But even considering they could probably they wouldn't because it's strategically not good for market positioning since they would have to do quality compromises and break the premium perception and have much more competition (same reason why apple do not do a 200$ iphone). Cheaper products are already there and are Chinese cars and used Teslas in some years, and here you go is your 25K Tesla.

 

[bhtooefr]

Tesla's master plan was always about using luxury models to fund pushing down into the mass market, though, not about creating a luxury brand...

 

[Buckminster]

What if there will NOT be one? In a 'ride the lighting' podcast Musk said that they don't know how to make a cheaper car for now. But even considering they could probably they wouldn't because it's strategically not good for market positioning since they would have to do quality compromises and break the premium perception and have much more competition (same reason why apple do not do a 200$ iphone). Cheaper products are already there and are Chinese cars and used Teslas in some years, and here you go is your 25K Tesla.

Elon knows how to make a cheaper car - smaller. Virtuous circle - smaller = lighter = smaller battery = lighter chassis etc.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Yes, a global hatch is what I've heard. Not even sure if it will make it to the US.

Makes sense, if one is going to produce it, it would be in China.

But it would have to be way less labor intensive to build (more automation), so if or when production comes to the US it could be built at labor challenged GF3.

A smaller hatch would keep it from cannibalizing the Model 3 much.

 

[Watts_Up]

A smaller hatch would keep it from cannibalizing the Model 3 much.

I know few people debating between getting a Kona EV and a Tesla Model 3 SR+.

A shorter Tesla with a hatchback would certainly be very popular.

 

[ilosi]

Tesla's master plan was always about using luxury models to fund pushing down into the mass market, though, not about creating a luxury brand...

No. Tesla’s goal is to accelerate electric transition. And they can’t do it alone or it will take more time. To achieve that they’re medium is to demonstrate BEV are in any dimension better than ICE and lead the market. Then China will do the rest. In any case then model 3 alone with economies of scale in theory could cost 25k in 10 years with same profit.

 

[ilosi]

Elon knows how to make a cheaper car - smaller. Virtuous circle - smaller = lighter = smaller battery = lighter chassis etc.

Sorry but doesn’t work that way. In fact Model 3 has more weight than competitors and goes further. Many more variables...

 

[Buckminster]

Sorry but doesn’t work that way. In fact Model 3 has more weight than competitors and goes further. Many more variables...

Assuming that Tesla don't create a less efficient powertrain, a smaller model 2 will be 99% likely to be lighter & cheaper than the M3. There are many more variables and most of them will reinforce one another.

 

[ilosi]

I believe in 10 years they will have the ability considering their lineup but not sure if is a move they will be willing to take. I hope so.

 

[Brando]

Lighten up.
Elon can't make ALL the worlds cars. Plenty for other auto makers to do.

 

[Paulteamblue]

1. If they made a $25,000 car I would buy one for my girlfriend who has an older Leaf.
2. I suspect the limiting factor is they need to time to make more factories and batteries to do this.

 

[Watts_Up]

1. If they made a $25,000 car ...

People need to consider the overall ownership cost, not only the purchase price, when comparing EV to ICE cars.
Typically, over a five years period, a $35/40k EV can be cost effective compared to a $25k ICE.

Here's How Tesla Model 3 Is Cheaper To Own Than Toyota Camry​

2. I suspect the limiting factor is they need to time to make more factories and batteries to do this.

There are less than 0.5% EVs in the world.
Making batteries is the bottleneck, car manufacturers are dragging their feet, pushed by the oil industrie$ and car dealer$hip.

Currently, manufacturer mitigate the transition by making hybrid vehicles...
But few manufacturers will survive the growing EV demand and autonomous technological revolution.

The change is irreversible now. Will you go back to flip phones after having smartphones?