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I'm going to wait to order my model 3 (Ontario)

Heynow999

Member
Nov 4, 2013
42
37
Toronto, Canada
I reserved on March 31 2016 and I got the email last week allowing me to configure my model 3. I have decieded to wait a few months before I configure. I am ok with the limmited options that are available right now, but I am concerned about the quality of the first production models and I want to give Tesla a bit of time to work the bugs out.

My worry was about the EV rebate going away because I would not buy it without the rebate. As of today, April 1st, it looks like there might be a minority PC government so the rebate should stay. My plan is to wait until the election, see what happens to the rebate. If it looks like it will be staying I will wait a few more months to see if the quality of the cars seems to be improving. There is no way I would order a car now when they are trying to pump them out as fast as possible. It makes me think of this movie

Gung Ho (1986) - IMDb
 
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Munch

Member
Mar 19, 2016
209
207
Toronto, ON
Someone with more political knowledge than me should chime in, but I don't think having a minority government would ensure that the rebate stays. Sure they might not be able to kill the cap and trade program, but ending a program like the rebate doesn't have to be voted on at Queen's Park, I would think.
 

sakimano

Active Member
Mar 20, 2017
1,374
835
Ontario, Canada
Someone with more political knowledge than me should chime in, but I don't think having a minority government would ensure that the rebate stays. Sure they might not be able to kill the cap and trade program, but ending a program like the rebate doesn't have to be voted on at Queen's Park, I would think.
It means the PC party, if in power, would not have enough votes within their party to change the program. They would need support from members of the liberals or NDP (which they might get...many think the $14k is far too high and think something like $6000 or 7500, ideally at a federal level, would be more appropriate).

I sure wouldn't base major financial decisions on polling data though lol. If you did that in America or Britain in 2016 you'd be SOL.
 

Munch

Member
Mar 19, 2016
209
207
Toronto, ON
It means the PC party, if in power, would not have enough votes within their party to change the program. They would need support from members of the liberals or NDP (which they might get...many think the $14k is far too high and think something like $6000 or 7500, ideally at a federal level, would be more appropriate).

I sure wouldn't base major financial decisions on polling data though lol. If you did that in America or Britain in 2016 you'd be SOL.

I agree, you shouldn't make any decisions based on polling data, although it's understandable given that there are people deciding whether or not to get LR+PUP now or wait for SR or AWD but still want the rebate.

The question I was trying to raise was whether cancelling a rebate is an item which would require a vote by the MPPs. New budgets have to be. But some decisions don't, like the new rebate rules that got put into place last month where they removed the S and X off the list. So regardless of a minority/majority PC government, the rebate still might go away.
 

Tempino

Member
Dec 21, 2017
27
36
Toronto, Canada
Hi there,

Neo1974 made the below quote in another thread which ultimately helped me with a similar dilemma to yours. Hope this also helps you somewhat if you're in Ontario. I ended up placing my order.

Assuming Model 3 gets added to the list of eligible EVs, waiting further fo[r those us how can order now and want the rebate seems quite risky

I did a quick analysis with publicly available information, so to help us Ontario folks ponder the risk of waiting and losing the 14K rebate – even should the Liberals get a majority (!).
  • The rebate is part of the 2016-2020 Climate Change Action Plan. The plan indicates that 140M to 160M is being planned for the program beginning in 2017 up to 2020. That money is enough for 10,000 to 11,400 cars with a $14K rebate.
  • Let’s try to estimate how much of this is already spent and how much is left. Let’s assume that for the five quarters since the plan has been in force (from January 1st 2017 to March 31st 2018), EV Sales in Ontario have been flat and equivalent to 2017-Q3 sales reported online here (simplifying assumption).
  • Using the rebates in force for most of that period (until March 9th 2018 actually), I have calculated that EV Rebates granted sum up to approximately $116M or 73% of total program funding over those five quarters only. Highlight of my calculations
  • In Q3 2017, 1872 EVs and BEV were sold, with an average EV rebate of $12,465 per vehicle, for a total of $23.3M.
  • Using Q3-2017 as estimate, five quarters (from 01-2017 to 03-2018) gives $116.5M.
So, it looks like the current EV program could end up being fully spent/ subscribed sometimes this spring/summer, especially with the early arrival of thousands of model 3 in Ontario and a jump in EV sales in Ontario. Therefore, those with the privilege of being able to order now show do so asap if they are serious about clinching the 14K rebate – no matter who they think will win on Election day June 7.

My 2 cents

Neo1974
 

Heynow999

Member
Nov 4, 2013
42
37
Toronto, Canada
Thats very interesting. I didn't think there was a limit to the EV rebate, I thought they just kept the program going until the Government felt that was enough. I'm going to make some calls Tuesday and see if I can get an answer.
I am surprised that many EV's have been sold in Ontario when several manufacturors will literally not sell you one (Ford FFE and GM Bolt)
 

ebatmobile

Member
Mar 4, 2018
144
158
Toronto, Canada
The data is flawed as it assumes all prior quarters had the same # of sales as the quarter it was pulled from. My expectation is they would be less and therefore leaving more $ in the program fund. That being said with the model 3 out now sales should ramp quickly provided folks are not waiting for awd.
 

Neo1974

Member
Apr 1, 2018
57
116
Ottawa, ON
The data is flawed as it assumes all prior quarters had the same # of sales as the quarter it was pulled from. My expectation is they would be less and therefore leaving more $ in the program fund. That being said with the model 3 out now sales should ramp quickly provided folks are not waiting for awd.

Actually, it assumes the # of sales in prior two quarters (Q1’17, Q2’17) is below the “central” quarter Q3’17 in the same amount that sales in the subsequent two quarters (Q4’17, Q1’18) are above the central quarter. The Fleetcarma article actually displays a graph with total Ontario EV Sales for Q1 and Q2 2017. I had a look at this indeed to make my assumption. I certainly don’t pretend to certainty, but, clearly, with the funds announced for the EV program, the risk is very real it will be fully subscribed anytime between now and this fall.
 
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tombar

Member
Mar 24, 2018
70
124
Ottawa Ontario
Is that true? They can just kill the program even with a minority government?
Most likely "yes", just like they adjust the program from time to time, e.g.recently changing the EV qualifications to cut off any EV with MSRP of over $75K (eliminated rebates for Model S & X). It just takes the minister of transportation and/or finance to give the order and have public communication of effective dates, no legislation required. This is not likely the type of change that would cause a vote of non confidence to bring down a just elected government...
 

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