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Investing in Panasonic as a side-play in Tesla

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by blakegallagher, Sep 4, 2013.

  1. blakegallagher

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    My brother and law would like to invest in Panasonic to catch some of the upside from Tesla's huge battery demand but when I was looking there are a few different tickers and I am not sure which one is the right one to invest in. I was hoping someone could provide some clarification on this.
     
  2. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Panasonic is a $20bn market cap company and so is TSLA. If Tesla does well and starts selling hundreds of thousands of cars then it will be worth $40bn and Panasonic might be worth $25bn if your lucky.

    There is absolutely no reason to invest in Panasonic as a derivative play into TSLA. That is the dumbest investment move you can make.

    If you like Panasonic as a company then go ahead and invest, but don't do it solely as a TSLA derivative play. I have a couple of Panasonic plasma TV's and I love them, but I heard that they were struggling financially on these TV's (not sure about source and not positive it is true).
     
  3. ppl

    ppl Member

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    Used to be listed on nick and ny exchange but delisted on ny. That is why the confusion. As to not investing, after seeing the vitriol about tesla I would say make up your own mind. I did like how the CEO did apologize about company performance. An American CEO would have tried to make it sound like it was a good report
     
  4. LiteWait

    LiteWait Member

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    #4 LiteWait, Sep 4, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2013
    The subject of this thread should really be changed to "Why invest in Panasonic when you can invest in Tesla?"

    I would support a thread on some pure lithium plays but long term that's just not that sexy either when you start talking about Supercapacitors.
     
  5. farzyness

    farzyness Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?

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    The ticker is PCRFY. I bought at about 8. I like the play.
     
  6. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Let's put some optimistic numbers together for Panasonic:

    1. Tesla builds 100k cars in 2015 (they probably won't)
    2. Tesla buys 100% of batteries from Panasonic (they won't - some will come from Samsung, BYD?, etc.)
    3. Panasonic gets $15,000 from each battery pack (probably a little/lot less)
    4. Panasonic earns 10% margins on the batteries (probably a lot less)

    So this optimistic scenario leads to 100k batteries at $15k a piece or $1.5bn in sales. 10% gross margin is $150m, so net margin is less, say $100m.

    That alone is not enough to make Panasonic stock move up. And this an extremely optimistic scenario.

    The other value Panasonic gets is that it owns 1%? of TSLA. But such a derivative play doesn't make any sense in mind.
     
  7. blakegallagher

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    Thanks to the one person who answered my question :)

    And to the rest of y'all .... yes I pretty much agree ... I have about 98 percent of my wealth in TSLA so I should start looking at a little bit of diversification and SCTY has not worked out so far .... except to offset some mind boggling gains.
     
  8. MacLeodMX

    MacLeodMX Member

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    Wow, nasty undertones to a simple question.

    PCRFY is the ticker you are looking for.

    Nothing wrong with a bit of diversification people
     
  9. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    I am just providing some analysis to help in making a decision. I would love to hear from other people what they think about Panasonic. I don't really know anything about Panasonic.

    I wanted to point out that the Tesla effect will not be that great on Panasonic.

    I am just trying to help here.
     
  10. 2Pearls

    2Pearls Member

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    I also bought into Panasonic at just over $8.00 a few weeks ago and it has moved up nicely since. I bought it because of the relation to TSLA and I agree that this part of the business is peanuts compared to the bigger picture but Panasonic has also been beaten down these past few years so I think it is a good play...most analysts I have read have given it a price target of $16 so, I will gladly accept a 100% return. It is no TSLA, but not much out there is right now.
     
  11. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Really bad timing to invest in Panasonic right now for the sake of Tesla
    Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Adds Samsung To Its Battery Supply Chain

    With Samsung there will be a second major Battery supplier that will have little problems scaling up production to the projected demand.
    That will lead to a price war between Panasonic and Samsung and it will cut into the margins of Panasonic.
     
  12. blakegallagher

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    Im not sure how much they will price cut each other as both companies will struggle to meet Tesla's battery demand. But I really hope they all bid each other down because cheap batteries for Tesla is a win for everyone :)
     
  13. Nicu.Mihalache

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    98% of your wealth and you keep it invested in a bubble play? I think the odds of halving are an order of magnitude higher than doubling from $170 (but people are strange creatures and a bubbles can go as high as your trading platform has digits to represent)

    not more than 25% or in the extreme 50% if you are super-aggressive should be invested in such a dangerous and volatile stock; you could sell 60-70% and keep the cash for the next downturn in the market (those Bernanke rally inflated stock prices cannot float forever) - to paraphrase Buffet, at that point you will feel like a prisoner in a brothel; or could go with some more stable growth play; I do that with some shares in AAPL which also pays a dividend (but I am aggressive so most of that play is with calls)

    - - - Updated - - -

    very good analysis; Panasonic reported 5.8% GM, not 10%
    Panasonic to expand its business in lithium-ion batteries - Economic Times

    this is only because the factories were written off, so there is no amortization in the price of those cells, here is only one of them (they did it several times)
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/31/us-panasonic-earnings-idUSBRE89U09L20121031

    add to that the competition from Samsung (they would go to unimaginable lengths to hurt their competitors, even if they are also their partners) and Panasonic may not make any money from those 18650 cells sold to Tesla
     
  14. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    On a related subject -

    The Korea Herald-Analysts paint rosy future for battery makers

    With the frenzy surrounding Tesla, its not absurd to think it could have outsized effects on the stock prices of related companies, irregardless of the "fundamentals" (see TSLA valuation).

    To be clear, I don't have an opinion one way or another about the desirability of such investments or their relative benefit vs a direct investment in TSLA. But it's not like its crazy talk to discuss it.
     
  15. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I expected better from CO.
     
  16. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry Model S - U.S. P - #1649

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    I still cringe whenever I see "irregardless." However, things are so degraded that if you type in "regardless" the spell checkers flag it and try to get you to use "irregardless." I guess I'm just too old.
     
  17. KD5MDK

    KD5MDK Member

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    Panasonic is a terrible choice for diversification from Tesla.
     

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