Is AP imminent

[Chickenlittle]

taking delivery of model X in July or August. From prior experience, very concerned that new sensors for AP 2.0 will appear soon afterwards. I would hope that tesla would put in conduits to run wires later to update to AP 2.0 hardware. Knowing there is an upgrade path that would not involve selling a just purchased car would be reassuring to potential customers. Otherwise I face decision of cancelling order (2500 deposit small fee to avoid trading in a recently purchased car).

 

[electracity]

Probably not.

1)Too close to X launch.
2) No demand boost needed now

 

[Saghost]

It's really hard to say, with the conflicting information that's out there.

I'd agree with electracity that this isn't a really logical time for it, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I'm in the order queue for an X, and I'm banking in the idea that if they do release a new version this year, it'll be upgradeable, at least on the X, for the reasons mentioned.

Also note that the X AP installation is a little different from the S version, which may or may not mean anything for the future.

(The X camera is on the right side of the mirror mount, with an empty space of similar size on the left; the S camera is in the center of the mirror mount, even on the couple post refresh cars I've seen photos of.)

 

[electracity]

I would be shocked if the AP is upgradable. It will be a major new hardware/software release that puts the S/X in sync with the model 3. At a minimum, Tesla must make a significant sensor change to detect overtaking cars in the left lane. The next AP likely won't be nearly as simple as a better camera and an incremental software upgrade.

The current 3D GUI is dated, and the system is slow. Why haven't they done what we know are simple hardware changes to speed up the system? The only logical reason I can think of is that the change is planned in major jumps. Interesting that no one has mentioned the different look of the GUI on the model 3.

If S/X demand stays high in 2017, the logical time to release new S/X autopilot would be at the model 3 reveal. This spurs sales of the S/X while simultaneously increasing the desirability of the model 3.

 

[ecarfan]

taking delivery of model X in July or August. From prior experience, very concerned that new sensors for AP 2.0 will appear soon afterwards. I would hope that tesla would put in conduits to run wires later to update to AP 2.0 hardware. Knowing there is an upgrade path that would not involve selling a just purchased car would be reassuring to potential customers. Otherwise I face decision of cancelling order (2500 deposit small fee to avoid trading in a recently purchased car).

There is always something new, big, and exciting coming "soon" with Tesla Motors. The innovation never stops, and it is never announced in advance Feel free to cancel your order and wait. Or order, take delivery, and enjoy. Your decision.

 

[Chickenlittle]

There is always something new, big, and exciting coming "soon" with Tesla Motors. The innovation never stops, and it is never announced in advance Feel free to cancel your order and wait. Or order, take delivery, and enjoy. Your decision.

Thanks for the permission and stating the obvious. However the post was more a suggestion for tesla to think ahead and create a path to upgrade a major component of the car. It would also create income for tesla upgrading without customers resorting to selling the car. Thoughtfully planned conduits could make this possible.

 

[Canuck]

Thanks for the permission and stating the obvious. However the post was more a suggestion for tesla to think ahead and create a path to upgrade a major component of the car. It would also create income for tesla upgrading without customers resorting to selling the car. Thoughtfully planned conduits could make this possible.

Yes, I'm sure they read your post and thought "great idea!"....

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yes, I'm sure they read your post and thought "great idea!"....

Perhaps. They do read posts and have incorporated suggestions in the past

 

[Canuck]

Perhaps. They do read posts and have incorporated suggestions in the past

Fair enough. And I guess it can't hurt to try. But I really doubt it. Aside from the fact it will likely be a major upgrade, the service centres are far too busy as is without adding on the extra burden of doing retrofit upgrades. It took me nearly two months recently just to get an appointment for my annual service. And when I dropped my car off yesterday because of the red ring charging problem, they were overflowing, but fortunately had an AP loaner for me. So they can take as long as they want fixing it!

 

[Saghost]

I would be shocked if the AP is upgradable. It will be a major new hardware/software release that puts the S/X in sync with the model 3. At a minimum, Tesla must make a significant sensor change to detect overtaking cars in the left lane. The next AP likely won't be nearly as simple as a better camera and an incremental software upgrade.

The current 3D GUI is dated, and the system is slow. Why haven't they done what we know are simple hardware changes to speed up the system? The only logical reason I can think of is that the change is planned in major jumps. Interesting that no one has mentioned the different look of the GUI on the model 3.

If S/X demand stays high in 2017, the logical time to release new S/X autopilot would be at the model 3 reveal. This spurs sales of the S/X while simultaneously increasing the desirability of the model 3.

If you're right that it'll be a major revision to center console and other parts that happens in summer 2017, then I wouldn't be too surprised or bothered that it isn't upgradeable.

However, if they were to put out an update this summer/fall as the OP is concerned about, I'd be surprised if it is that major revision, and surprised again if they don't offer an upgrade, at least for the X where folks who have waited three years are just now getting their cars.

 

[Canuck]

However, if they were to put out an update this summer/fall as the OP is concerned about, I'd be surprised if it is that major revision, and surprised again if they don't offer an upgrade, at least for the X where folks who have waited three years are just now getting their cars.

If history is any example, the hardware will start showing up long before any software updates that enable it. The vast majority of X owners will not know about new cars being sold with AP 2.0 hardware, even if one rolls off the line today. It won't be until software is released and the vehicles are doing things AP 1.0 can't do that it will be a concern. And that's probably more than a year away. I see the hardware vs. software releases as very different. Hardware soon (I hope) software my be a very long time away.

Despite what people may think, only a small percentage of owners read these forums. That's why I think Tesla may have leaked this drawing of the triple cameras:

http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/3597/268/original.jpg

Was it a hint to those who really care about this stuff, to show it's in the works, and coming soon? Who knows?

 

[electracity]

least for the X where folks who have waited three years are just now getting their cars.

I think this is why they will wait until next year. Q1 2017 is one year of X production.

Whatever they make the change, they will disappoint buyers. But they don't want to be viewed as unfair. It would be brutal on X bayers who had money down for a couple years to do a major update after they finish delivering all the preorders.

Thinking more about it, I think they would release 2.0 before the second reveal. Delivery AP 2.0 3-9 months before the model 3 release is a nice way to minimize problems on that portion of a high volume car.

If history is any example, the hardware will start showing up long before any software updates that enable it.

There just has to be a major computer upgrade. I don't see how they hide that change. This upgrade would be the time to change a lot of electronics.

 

[Ludus]

I think you're right to suspect that Tesla will repeat the pattern of upgrading sensors and hardware without any public announcement so later OTA software updates may apply to many vehicles already sold.

The big AP upgrade would require next generation of Mobileye EyeQ chips capable of using up to 8 cameras, plus new control redundancies. As far as I can google the EyeQ hardware won't be available in quantity until early 2018.

This is obviously a priority for Tesla so maybe they'll be able to push the process?

With no access to anything insider, my guess is the priority for the hardware would be Model X built for Mobility App Fleet use themselves rather than for sale. I think L4 AP will be operated in Mobility fleets long before it's activated for owners. Which side of the line any given Model X is though is a good question because it would matter whether it was capable of OTA upgrade to full self driving eventually.