Is Tesla closer than we think?

[qdeathstar]

Wrong.

Care to elaborate?

Also, oops:

Traffic cones confused a Waymo self-driving car. Then things got worse.

A confused Waymo self-driving car was captured on video as it became stranded on an Arizona road earlier this month while carrying a passenger and then unexpectedly driving away as a worker from the company's roadside assistance arrived to help.

www.google.com

and that’s on their “good” road....

 

[qdeathstar]

No, I don't think it is. "Driverless" could be L4 or L5.

But L5 couldn’t be full of drivers. Hence the redundancies.

 

[EVNow]

We keep thinking about Tesla as trying to solve all of these situations and it's obvious that they are trying, but just like an 80 year old grandma, they could avoid certain dangerous situations and still get to the destination fine

Do you think Musk wants Tesla to drive like a 80 year old grandma ?

You are thinking of Waymo, not Tesla

 

[diplomat33]

Care to elaborate?

Sure. Waymo has AI, perception, planning and prediction that can handle a lot of different roads and cases all over the US. We know Waymo Driver can do autonomous driving in 25+ cities across the US. So I think it is safe to say that Waymo can handle driving tasks in Virginia.

Also, oops:

Traffic cones confused a Waymo self-driving car. Then things got worse.

A confused Waymo self-driving car was captured on video as it became stranded on an Arizona road earlier this month while carrying a passenger and then unexpectedly driving away as a worker from the company's roadside assistance arrived to help.

www.google.com

and that’s on their “good” road....

It is very rare and you know it. You cannot generalize based on one bad example.

 

[Microterf]

Do you think Musk wants Tesla to drive like a 80 year old grandma ?

You are thinking of Waymo, not Tesla

Of course not. I'm saying that many old people avoid situations that are more confusing which allows them to keep driving. IF Tesla realized there are situations that the current sensor suite can't handle, they could omit those from driving policy, but still get us there safely. Obviously if there are too many situstions it can't handle. then they are screwed anyway

 

[qdeathstar]

Sure. Waymo has AI, perception, planning and prediction that can handle a lot of different roads and cases all over the US. We know Waymo Driver can do autonomous driving in 25+ cities across the US. So I think it is safe to say that Waymo can handle driving tasks in Virginia.

Ah, so you are saying Waymo has not deployed level 4 then.... thanks, I said that like 8 posts ago. Glad you have finally came around.

 

[diplomat33]

Ah, so you are saying Waymo has not deployed level 4 then....

Yes, Waymo has deployed L4. Waymo can handle all driving tasks with some ODD restrictions.

 

[qdeathstar]

Yes, Waymo has deployed L4.

you just said it isn’t deployed, but it could do it. Which is it? Is Waymo deployed or not? Waymo can’t do any driving tasks in Virginia because it can’t do them or it’s not deployed.

 

[qdeathstar]

Yes, Waymo has deployed L4. Waymo can handle all driving tasks with some ODD restrictions.

I just showed you where it cannot he did all driving tasks....

 

[diplomat33]

you just said it isn’t deployed, but it could do it. Which is it? Is Waymo deployed or not? Waymo can’t do any driving tasks in Virginia because it can’t do them or it’s not deployed.

Waymo is not deployed in Virginia. But it could handle all the driving tasks in Virginia if it were deployed.

 

[qdeathstar]

Waymo is not deployed in Virginia. But it could handle all the driving tasks in Virginia if it were deployed.

So neither a Tesla or anyone else has level 4 deployed. Ok....

Also. You have no way to evaluate whether or not Waymo can handle all driving tasks in Virginia... you are just saying it can.

 

[diplomat33]

So neither a Tesla or anyone else has level 4 deployed. Ok....

No. Waymo has deployed L4 in Chandler, AZ for commercial use. Waymo has deployed L4 for testing in Orlando, Detroit, SF and other cities. Tesla has not deployed any L4.

 

[EVNow]

Of course not. I'm saying that many old people avoid situations that are more confusing which allows them to keep driving. IF Tesla realized there are situations that the current sensor suite can't handle, they could omit those from driving policy, but still get us there safely. Obviously if there are too many situstions it can't handle. then they are screwed anyway

You are assuming that figuring out what can't be handled is much easier than handling the situation. May be not the case.

Either they have to define what can't be handled very broadly ("no left turns") - or put in a lot of effort to figure out if a situation is such that it can't be handled (currently if they get to a situation where they don't know what to do, the car asks you to take over).

ps : Coming back to your original question - NO - Tesla is NOT close to L3/L4. As their engineers noted, that would require 1 disengagement in a Million miles. Nobody is close to that (not even Waymo in that tiny ideal area they are operating).

 

[EVNow]

No. Waymo has deployed L4 in Chandler, AZ for commercial use. Waymo has deployed L4 for testing in Orlando, Detroit, SF and other cities. Tesla has not deployed any L4.

Waymo has deployed L4 in a very limited area of Chandler. Thats ALL they have done in 5 years.

Waymo is not deployed in Virginia. But it could handle all the driving tasks in Virginia if it were deployed.

So, this is a statement without any evidence of it being true.

Trust me, if Waymo was confident, they would have deployed in Virginia already. The reason they are still testing in Orlanado etc is that they are simply not confident their software is good enough.

With Tesla, if they can handle Chandler, AZ at L4, they can handle Orlando too.

Thats the difference.

(we have been through this so many times ...)

 

[diplomat33]

Also. You have no way to evaluate whether or not Waymo can handle all driving tasks in Virginia... you are just saying it can.

Yes, based on what I know about Waymo.

 

[qdeathstar]

Yes, based on what I know about Waymo.

that you like it? That isn’t evidence....

 

[momo3605]

With Tesla, if they can handle Chandler, AZ at L4, they can handle Orlando too.

Tesla can't handle L4 anywhere. That's the difference

 

[powertoold]

2021.4.18 handled this merge well yesterday. It fit itself between the bolt and another car behind the bolt. This situation (multiple cars merging at speed and close distance) is always a gray area for human drivers:

 

[kavyboy]

You can’t. But in a certain specific set of circumstances, a Tesla was able to drive itself. Can i get a ride from a waymo in richmond?


Level 4 deployed loololololl.lo

In a certain specific set of circumstances, I was able to bowl a strike. Therefore, I can be a professional bowler. The guy holding the worlds record for consecutive strikes hasn't done it in my bowling alley, so he isn't a real bowler.

 

[momo3605]

2021.4.18 handled this merge well yesterday. It fit itself between the bolt and another car behind the bolt. This situation (multiple cars merging at speed and close distance) is always a gray area for human drivers:

View attachment 665675

This has the default behavior for EAP and FSD for a long time now. I've seen this many times. It's actually nice that they have this (it does not behave this way with standard AP IIRC). But I've also seen this behave poorly as well. Even if there was no car in front, and you're traveling at a speed where you could easily pass, it'll slam on the brake and try to dive behind