Is Tesla closer than we think?

[diplomat33]

Waymo has deployed L4 in a very limited area of Chandler. Thats ALL they have done in 5 years.

So, this is a statement without any evidence of it being true.

Trust me, if Waymo was confident, they would have deployed in Virginia already. The reason they are still testing in Orlanado etc is that they are simply not confident their software is good enough.

Tesla is still testing L2. That's ALL they have done in 5 years.

If Tesla was confident, they would have deployed L4 already. The reason they are still testing L2 is that they are simply not confident their software is good enough.

 

[diplomat33]

that you like it? That isn’t evidence....

No. Based on the evidence that Waymo has L4 that works in multiple cities across the US.

 

[powertoold]

This has the default behavior for EAP and FSD for a long time now. I've seen this many times. It's actually nice that they have this (it does not behave this way with standard AP IIRC).

I've noticed that it's gotten better lately. In the past, it may have tried to get behind the last car rather than fit itself in between.

Also, I was on standard AP in this case.

And you're right, it doesn't always deal with this situation well, although I haven't had 4.18 long enough to see if they've improved some of the other situations.

 

[Bladerskb]

Waymo has given ~100k miles of driverless L4 ride to the public.

Tesla has given 0 miles of driverless L4 ride to the public.

/thread

 

[qdeathstar]

In a certain specific set of circumstances, I was able to bowl a strike. Therefore, I can be a professional bowler. The guy holding the worlds record for consecutive strikes hasn't done it in my bowling alley, so he isn't a real bowler.

the guy in your second scenario doesn’t exist yet....

 

[mikes_fsd]

Tesla is still testing L2. That's ALL they have done in 5 years.

No, the end user only has access to L2 version of Autopilot, the fact that in California they had to report the Autopilot demo as self-driving proves your statement wrong using your preferred source of data - Cali DMV.

You have no idea what Tesla tests outside of California (to bypass the bureaucracy and in my opinion to hide their competitive advantage from the outside world). But we do have an idea of the fact that they do test outside of California as witnessed by job postings in other states (like Texas) that are specifically for FSD testing.

No. Based on the evidence that Waymo has L4 that works in multiple cities across the US.

Yes, we've seen it... Waymo - Autonomy until our first traffic cone!

 

[momo3605]

You have no idea what Tesla tests outside of California (to bypass the bureaucracy and in my opinion to hide their competitive advantage from the outside world). But we do have an idea of the fact that they do test outside of California as witnessed by job postings in other states (like Texas) that are specifically for FSD testing.

Do you have any idea what Tesla is testing outside of FSD Beta 8.2? No

You’re saying that because Tesla has job postings for FSD testers, that they are the leaders in autonomous driving space?

Try harder

 

[mikes_fsd]

Do you have any idea what Tesla is testing outside of FSD Beta 8.2? No

You’re saying that because Tesla has job postings for FSD testers, that they are the leaders in autonomous driving space?

LMAO! We know from the CEO that they are testing at least FSD 9.0, so maybe you can try harder?

My reply quoted another post -- that is context -- just like I am quoting your post to reply to you and to maintain context.
Please go re-read my post with its context and come back.
Thank you!

 

[diplomat33]

No, the end user only has access to L2 version of Autopilot, the fact that in California they had to report the Autopilot demo as self-driving proves your statement wrong using your preferred source of data - Cali DMV.

You have no idea what Tesla tests outside of California (to bypass the bureaucracy and in my opinion to hide their competitive advantage from the outside world). But we do have an idea of the fact that they do test outside of California as witnessed by job postings in other states (like Texas) that are specifically for FSD testing.

Tesla reported the Autonomy demo as L3, not L4.

So because Tesla has job postings for FSD testers, it means they must have super secret L4 that nobody has seen or heard about? That's really reaching. You are just making up theories now.

We know Tesla is testing FSD Beta V9 which is L2. There is no evidence that Tesla is testing any L4 autonomy.

Yes, we've seen it... Waymo - Autonomy until our first traffic cone!

HA HA. Very funny.

 

[qdeathstar]

Waymo has given ~100k miles of driverless L4 ride to the public.

Tesla has given 0 miles of driverless L4 ride to the public.

/thread

On a frw

Do you have any idea what Tesla is testing outside of FSD Beta 8.2? No

You’re saying that because Tesla has job postings for FSD testers, that they are the leaders in autonomous driving space?

Try harder

that wasn’t what he was saying.

 

[mikes_fsd]

There is no evidence that Tesla is testing any L4 autonomy.

What evidence do you have that they are NOT testing L4? After all their goal is L4+ as has been stated on their site and by their CEO.
You can say what they are NOT testing in Cali, or what end-users are not testing, but - unless you have a credible source - you have no idea how far along their testing is or how extensive.

Just some perspective - to this day when a Tesla with MFG plates and lidar mounted on the roof is seen, the news reports it as Tesla testing out lidar even though Karpathy in his 02/2020 presentation say they use lidar mules to validate depth perception!

So, what evidence do you have that Tesla is not testing (and by implication not working towards) L4?

 

[EVNow]

Tesla can't handle L4 anywhere. That's the difference

Neither can Chrysler. So, according to your "logic", there is no difference between Tesla and Chrysler.

 

[momo3605]

What evidence do you have that they are NOT testing L4? After all their goal is L4+ as has been stated on their site and by their CEO.
You can say what they are NOT testing in Cali, or what end-users are not Testing, but unless you have a credible source - you have no idea how far along their testing is or how extensive.

Just some perspective - to this day when a Tesla with MFG plates and lidar mounted on the roof is seen, the news reports it as Tesla testing out lidar even though Karpathy in his 02/2020 presentation say they use lidar mules to validate depth perception!

So, what evidence do you have that Tesla is not testing (and by implication not working towards) L4?

Dude, you can't argue that because there is no evidence that Tesla is NOT working on L4, that they must be working on L4. That's not how an argument works. You have to prove with evidence that Tesla has L4

The baseline we know is that Tesla has never shown the public an L4 demo. It's also never leaked that Tesla has an L4 prototype. What is YOUR evidence that Tesla is working on L4? CEO tweets and a marketing page are not evidence that Tesla is making progress on L4 or that they are even close to L4.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla is still testing L2. That's ALL they have done in 5 years.

If Tesla was confident, they would have deployed L4 already. The reason they are still testing L2 is that they are simply not confident their software is good enough.

Seriously - you are better than this.

We have talked about this - over and over again.

We actually have 3 dimensions
- Scenario (or feature)
- Location
- Individual (i.e. people)

Reliability is not a dimension - its a "measure". For a given combination of the above 3 dimensions we get a particular reliability (or error probability) number. Ofcourse the reliability can be calculated for a group of individuals/scenarios/locations or any combinations of them.

Waymo has high reliability for a lot of features - but only in small # of locations and only for their own cars.

ps : Elevators work in a lot of locations but in extremely limited number of scenarios

You make the rookie mistake of comparing using a single dimension (features), when there are 3 separate dimensions.

Waymo is better in one dimension (features) compared to Tesla, which is better in Location / geo dimension. We just don't know whether Tesla can scale up features faster or Waymo can scale up locations faster. Anyone who says they know are just speculating.

 

[diplomat33]

What evidence do you have that they are NOT testing L4? After all their goal is L4+ as has been stated on their site and by their CEO.
You can say what they are NOT testing in Cali, or what end-users are not testing, but - unless you have a credible source - you have no idea how far along their testing is or how extensive.

Just some perspective - to this day when a Tesla with MFG plates and lidar mounted on the roof is seen, the news reports it as Tesla testing out lidar even though Karpathy in his 02/2020 presentation say they use lidar mules to validate depth perception!

So, what evidence do you have that Tesla is not testing (and by implication not working towards) L4?

The burden is on you to prove that they are testing L4 since you claim that they are. Show the evidence.

 

[momo3605]

Neither can Chrysler. So, according to your "logic", there is no difference between Tesla and Chrysler.

By SAE definition, they are both L2. Doesn't mean they are the same. Tesla does have more features. Regardless that's irrelevant. You're trying to move the goal posts. Fact is, Tesla can not do L4 anywhere.

 

[mikes_fsd]

you can't argue that because there is no evidence that Tesla is NOT working on L4, that they must be working on L4.

I am sorry, but you must have missed my previous post on context.
In the context of Tesla with advertising and selling "Full Self-Driving Capability" Autopilot they have been working towards L4 since before the public announcement in 10/2016.

Their CEO regularly says that they are working towards L5, so given that context and no material changes from the company that says they've abandoned "Full Self-Driving Capability", those who are claiming that they are NOT in fact working towards L4+ need to provide the evidence, and if you do have evidence, there is a clear criminal & class action lawsuit with a guaranteed payout (IFF there is evidence).

Please, try to remember what context is and how vitally important it is to ANY conversation!

 

[EVNow]

By SAE definition, they are both L2. Doesn't mean they are the same. Tesla does have more features. Regardless that's irrelevant. You're trying to move the goal posts. Fact is, Tesla can not do L4 anywhere.

Duh.

Waymo can't do (anything) in Virginia.

Whats your point ?

 

[mikes_fsd]

The burden is on you to prove that they are testing L4 since you claim that they are. Show the evidence.

Here is proof their CEO says they are working towards L5! and that is admissible in court!


FYI the proof has been public for years now!

 

[momo3605]

Here is proof their CEO says they are working towards L5! and that is admissible in court!

How is the CEO saying they are working towards L5 evidence of anything? Every other automaker listed, Waymo included, says the same thing. Why do you believe Elon but no one else? Let alone the one company that actually has an L4 product that you can actually ride in.