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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

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Thank you very much for sharing these articles! They are very uplifting from the perspective of helping the planet. Beyond the scope of the information in the articles I think a few people will be surprised to realize the scale of this impact on the hydro and gas peaker plant operators in the Pacific NW who had enjoyed a steady stream of peak demand revenue for California - and even from their own NW states. While Pacific NW hydro has tremendous capacity and can produce power at fairly low rates, the mitigation costs to cover huge Capital projects and an ever-growing Operation & Maintenance budget for their salmon/steelhead Hatchery & Habitat programs have left operators in a position to become fairly dependent upon peak demand rates to pay for those programs. And because they are required to utilize wind energy when it is available they are in a similar boat as these articles present. In fact, last week they too sold energy at negative rates. And once independent operators utilizing the renewable-favorable programs of Oregon & Washington start installing sufficient battery storage it will allow them to likely get paid to store during peak daylight by buying energy at negative rates and then sell in the early evening during the last of the peak demand load. So even in the Pacific NW I think we will soon see the head finally get chopped off the duck (duck curve). However, this will result in the Pacific NW hydro generators to operate/fund Habitat and Hatchery on the remaining much lower demand rates. Thus that means rate hikes are very likely for the rest of us simply to pay for programs that grew a little larger than necessary, and operate a little less efficient than possible because the bar for those programs were established when life was good with lots of peak demand revenue. With battery storage/residential solar/distributed generation and massive commercial solar growth on the near-term horizon this is going to get sticky very fast in the Pacific NW. Very, very fast. In fact, since Pacific NW operators had to sell energy at negative prices last week, the tipping point might already be here before Elon unveils Solar Roof pricing this month.
 
Weekend post:
world's first reusable rocket
Beautiful shot of drone return to shore
Credit: Ken Kremer/Kenkremer.com
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America Making Everyone Great!
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More pics and great video at:
Worlds’ 1st Recycled Booster from SpaceX Sails Serenely at Sunrise into Port Canaveral - Photo/Video Gallery - Universe Today

 
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Thank you very much for sharing these articles! They are very uplifting from the perspective of helping the planet. Beyond the scope of the information in the articles I think a few people will be surprised to realize the scale of this impact on the hydro and gas peaker plant operators in the Pacific NW who had enjoyed a steady stream of peak demand revenue for California - and even from their own NW states. While Pacific NW hydro has tremendous capacity and can produce power at fairly low rates, the mitigation costs to cover huge Capital projects and an ever-growing Operation & Maintenance budget for their salmon/steelhead Hatchery & Habitat programs have left operators in a position to become fairly dependent upon peak demand rates to pay for those programs. And because they are required to utilize wind energy when it is available they are in a similar boat as these articles present. In fact, last week they too sold energy at negative rates. And once independent operators utilizing the renewable-favorable programs of Oregon & Washington start installing sufficient battery storage it will allow them to likely get paid to store during peak daylight by buying energy at negative rates and then sell in the early evening during the last of the peak demand load. So even in the Pacific NW I think we will soon see the head finally get chopped off the duck (duck curve). However, this will result in the Pacific NW hydro generators to operate/fund Habitat and Hatchery on the remaining much lower demand rates. Thus that means rate hikes are very likely for the rest of us simply to pay for programs that grew a little larger than necessary, and operate a little less efficient than possible because the bar for those programs were established when life was good with lots of peak demand revenue. With battery storage/residential solar/distributed generation and massive commercial solar growth on the near-term horizon this is going to get sticky very fast in the Pacific NW. Very, very fast. In fact, since Pacific NW operators had to sell energy at negative prices last week, the tipping point might already be here before Elon unveils Solar Roof pricing this month.

Washington generates more hydro power than Oregon. Most of the hydro power comes from dams on the Columbia. Oregon and Washington each have one coal power plant. I think one has either closed or is slated to close very soon and the other is slated to close in a few years. If California demands less power, the coal plants can be shuttered early. They are only peaking plants at this point anyway. There are also some natural gas plants that could shut down if out of state demand drops.

This spring we have a different energy problem. We are going to have too much hydro power again. For only the second time since 1947 the waters of the Columbia are up to the base of the dikes. It happened back in 2010 and there was so much hydro power they had to shut down all the windmills in Oregon (which really ticked off the windmill owners). This year is shaping up to be possibly worse. The snowpack usually starts to decline April 1, but this weekend many mountains got more snow as a large storm blew through and March was the third wettest March on record. This on top of an above average snow pack.

Back in 2010 the Columbia didn't flood until May, but they are letting out water early this year.

Though you do have a point as solar and wind get cheaper, dams might get too expensive to operate. There are places in the NW where wind power is a good option, but west of the Cascades we get some of the fewest hours of sunlight in continental US and Seattle is the furthest north major city in the continental US. The sun angle is low there, which reduces solar efficiency.

I've looked into a solar system, but prices in Washington for systems are higher than almost any other state, I think mostly because demand is low so there isn't much competition for the few companies doing them, and the payback time is longer than most states. Solar east of the Cascades might be more viable. They get more sun east of the mountains.

I still would like a solar installation. Maybe some day when I have a bit more capital to put into a system.
 
Nice pics and vids but what does this have to do with long-term fundamentals of Tesla Motors? Did you mean to post them in the SpaceX thread?
Yeah fair point, should be SpaceX thread. Given the financial links (SpaceX TE bonds) and backstop, cross correlations of technology use, and EM
Neuralinks will be another related to AP- as a long term fundamental (also, with a SapceX component)

That said, it's a fine line that I probably cross too often. I try to keep these more on reflective weekends (other than launches in General of course that is of more immediate interest)
Anyway, that's my story and I'm sticking to it!
(Note: I only HAVE a story because you HAVE a point) :p:)
 
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View attachment 221411 $TSLA April 2013 chart weaker than current chart but looks remarkably similar to current scenario
View attachment 221411 $TSLA April 2013 chart weaker than current chart but looks remarkably similar to current scenario

It is also important to note that Elon Musk used "stormy weather in Shortville" comment twice, and the last time was right before the April 2013 short squeeze, and this is in-line with your technical analysis conclusion as well.
 
Funny thing was I was expecting 300 by the Summer, 350 by the end of the year. A friend of mine predicted 350 if the "black swan" event for oil was to come true:

13 ‘black swans’ that could hit oil investors in 2017 (including Elon Musk)

Now I'm thinking 400s.

FWIW this was a partial reason why we went ahead and got a Model X now (even though my wife wanted to wait). I believe that when the model 3 comes out, resale values for ICE vehicles will start to skid (they already are, but currently being attributed to too many cars coming off leases). I wanted to be out of ICE vehicles now when I can still get a good deal.

Regarding the share price, Hirsch's Stock Almanac, has pointed out that the summer and fall are historically weak periods for stocks (yes mainly the indices). April tends to be great, and end of the year (Nov through Jan) tends to be the best. My goal is to try to harvest gains in my non-core (non-TSLA) holdings this month and be able to grab opportunities as they arise during the summer/fall.
 
Funny thing was I was expecting 300 by the Summer, 350 by the end of the year. A friend of mine predicted 350 if the "black swan" event for oil was to come true:

13 ‘black swans’ that could hit oil investors in 2017 (including Elon Musk)

Now I'm thinking 400s.

FWIW this was a partial reason why we went ahead and got a Model X now (even though my wife wanted to wait). I believe that when the model 3 comes out, resale values for ICE vehicles will start to skid (they already are, but currently being attributed to too many cars coming off leases). I wanted to be out of ICE vehicles now when I can still get a good deal.

Regarding the share price, Hirsch's Stock Almanac, has pointed out that the summer and fall are historically weak periods for stocks (yes mainly the indices). April tends to be great, and end of the year (Nov through Jan) tends to be the best. My goal is to try to harvest gains in my non-core (non-TSLA) holdings this month and be able to grab opportunities as they arise during the summer/fall.
after i read the comments to the above link, i've come to the decision I shall DCA sooner than later some more TSLA shares. They are advocating building more coal fired plants to power the very short range EV's, passionately
 
can you name one thing that has changed the long term fundamentals since Dec 05?... and don't say the stock.

Gigafactory cell production start (derisking of Model 3 ramp).
Model 3 RC production (more derisking).
Capital raise (more derisking).
Maintained strong demand for S and X.
Turns out SolarCity is not as terrible as feared and will not sink Tesla.

I'm probably missing a few.
 
can you name one thing that has changed the long term fundamentals since Dec 05?... and don't say the stock.

This is purely from a long-term valuation perspective:

Evolution of Tesla Energy is the biggest change.

Second biggest change, more recently, is the pull-forward of Model 3 production and more importantly, the hush hush reveal (in investor letter) of three additional Gigafactory announcement in 2018 (so likely online by 2020/21).

I would say those are the biggest news that sped up the fundamentals in my view, and I have accordingly adjusted my DCF.

Stock price should not be factored in fundamental analysis until the end to calculate margin of safety.
 
Gigafactory cell production start (derisking of Model 3 ramp).
Model 3 RC production (more derisking).
Capital raise (more derisking).
Maintained strong demand for S and X.
Turns out SolarCity is not as terrible as feared and will not sink Tesla.

I'm probably missing a few.
Only one item on your list makes my personal top three.

There are so many reasons for the SP to continue to increase its hard to choose :D!
 
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except that's not true at all... are you just adding to the hype?... there is no ban of 99.9% of the auto market.
Four major cities move to ban diesel vehicles by 2025 - BBC News from Decembe, 2016
"The leaders of four major global cities say they will stop the use of all diesel-powered cars and trucks by the middle of the next decade.
The mayors of Paris, Mexico City, Madrid and Athens"
"n the UK, campaigners are calling for London's mayor to commit to phase out diesel vehicles from London by 2025."
and --->COUNTRIES <-- considering it
Which Country Will Become the First to Ban Internal Combustion Cars?
Germany, Netherlands, India, Norway, -->China<--
(my daughter spent a summer in Beijing)
{I don't block anyone on TMC, as the software here is mildly schizo and makes responses confusing if you do, but i get tempted at times and i do like hearing all sides that have actionable, knowledgeable information with a high signal to noise ratio, why i have almost 100% left seeking alfa}
 
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