Midterm production capacity

[damonbrodie]

I'm curious about the production capacity that Tesla can achieve in the midterm (say 2024-2026). I've read that Fremont + Austin + Berlin + Shanghai is about 3M vehicles.

Assuming 2022 they ramp the new factories up to 1.5-1.6M vehicles. and then assuming ~50% growth:

2023: ~2.3M vehicles
2024: ~3M vehicles

What is their plan beyond that to increase capacity? Can they add capacity within the existing factories or do they need to expand or add factories after that?

 

[heltok]

Factories are probably near 1.6M/y rate already once Shanghai lockdown ends and I guess they will end the year well above 2M/y rate. 2023 probably ending the year at 1.2M from Shanghai, 600k freemont, 1M Berlin+Austin for a total of 2.8M/y. 2024 is the big wildcard, we will see what kinds of expansion they do and how they ramp.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm curious about the production capacity that Tesla can achieve in the midterm (say 2024-2026). I've read that Fremont + Austin + Berlin + Shanghai is about 3M vehicles.

Assuming 2022 they ramp the new factories up to 1.5-1.6M vehicles. and then assuming ~50% growth:

2023: ~2.3M vehicles
2024: ~3M vehicles

What is their plan beyond that to increase capacity? Can they add capacity within the existing factories or do they need to expand or add factories after that?

My understanding is that beyond the initial ramp of Berlin and Austin, it's more about global cell availability thru 2024. No need to add factory capacity, but they'll likely name the next two sites within a year or two. Elon mentioned a timeframe, maybe end of this year?

 

[damonbrodie]

My understanding is that beyond the initial ramp of Berlin and Austin, it's more about global cell availability thru 2024. No need to add factory capacity, but they'll likely name the next two sites within a year or two. Elon mentioned a timeframe, maybe end of this year?

Ah yes, that's right - I remember hearing that on the cell capacity. Hopefully Panasonic can get their 4680 production capacity online. I know they recently stated they were feeling pressure to get it done faster.