Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Search results

  1. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Great Q posted by Tesla. Congrats to @petit_bateau for nailing the EPS number. Lot's of good takeaways from the earnings call. One that stands out is the statement about expecting quite a bit of factory downtime in Q3 for upgrades. @Troy has been predicting this for quite a while now - the...
  2. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Well here we go again - another Quarterly announcement this week. I've cobbled together the predictions: Source EPS - GAAP EPS - Non-GAAP Gary Black $0.76 $0.87 James Cat $0.76 $0.88 Matt Smith $0.75 $0.86 Wall Street Journal $0.65 $0.76 Wall Street Consensus $0.69 $0.81 I...
  3. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I think he's extra conservative. He's likely hedging that the M3 lines will come down at some point for Highland updates. Gary Black estimates 450K for this Q which is a bit above WS consensus.
  4. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Edit - Part of my post went away: I'm wondering what people include when they talk about ASP. For example: Sum of: Total Automotive Revenues exclude Auto Leasing? exclude Regulatory Credits? Divided by: Total vehicle deliveries Minus Leased vehicles? Just want to know if I'm comparing...
  5. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Ok - I've been back and forth on this a couple times. Can you explain your understanding of how the revenue for a foreign sold car is recorded? Would they take the sales on any given day and convert it using that day's exchange rate to USD? Something else?
  6. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I pulled in the full inventory for all new inventory this morning for all Tesla markets and it came in at roughly 4200 vehicles At the discounted prices and converted to USD it comes in at $5.2B. My method is likely the same as Matt's and it seems that will not pull in duplicate configs of...
  7. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Doesn't Tesla use the "Contant Currency" for reporting? In the share deck for Q1 it said: So for Q2, assuming the average exchange rates from the same quarter in 2022 these are the exchange rates I assume: Country Q2 2023 (average from Q2 2022) USA 1.0000000 Canada 0.7838256 Mexico...
  8. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Q2 delivery predictions Just over 3 weeks left in the quarter. Here are the quarterly delivery forecasts so far: Source Prediction Troy Teslike (last public post) 439K James Stephenson 520K Wall Street 447K James' prediction is quite high. He takes a more analytical "what could be"...
  9. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Hi Hi Mongo, Thanks for your insight. does this make sense then for the IRA credits that Tesla would get for each vehicle USA produced vehicle in Q2?
  10. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    For the IRA battery credits in the US: Do the cells and packs have to be sold to US customers for Tesla to receive the credit? What about cells and packs made in the US but sold in Canada/Mexico? Are the credits now in effect? Are all the cells and packs for the Model 3 and Y for vehicles...
  11. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Hi everyone, I'm now tracking the Tesla vehicle prices across 10 different currencies and just in the two weeks I've been collecting daily price data, the effective price after currency conversion has declined somewhat...
  12. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I'm taking a closer look at the China Model 3 ASP. Right now the Model 3 RWD is selling for: China has a 13% effective VAT: 231900 * .13 = 30147 231900-30147 = 201753 < Revenue in Yuan for Tesla Converting that into USD: $28512 USD. According to @Troy model the COGS for the Model 3...
  13. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Any thoughts on the automotive COGS improvements for Q2? On the Q1 call Zach said something about the “costs really starting to improve in Q2”. Given the overall drop in ASP I hope that COGS can improve proportionally, but many hopes the same for Q1. It’s hard to guess when the lower...
  14. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I've been using this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F5IQOynIawoXiJPVarLDgPQDJAdzY8b5Vamw-Vf3eSY/edit#gid=1843681657 I approximated 3 + Y ASP in Q1 to be $45.7K. Looking at the above there were price cuts in April for both the 3 and Y. I don't know if 3K is the right number, but it...
  15. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Broken down or the aggregate? Where?
  16. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    For ASP I went here: Tesla Car Price History For COGS I followed the advice a few posts back about backing out the leasing (roughly 10% of S+X and roughly 3% of 3 + Y are leased) and then fitting the numbers against auto revenues. Same thing for costs. For me, it made Q2 pretty ugly based on...
  17. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Ok - then is the "Automotive sales" line on page 23 of the Q1 deck ($15.514M) using the same logic and subtract out the leased deliveries?
  18. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I wondered why leasing seems to "wander" from Q to Q. Thx for the tip.
  19. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Hi folks, I'm slowly building my own model of TSLA like many of you have. I'm looking for constructive criticism regarding some of my assumptions: In Q1 - average S + X average costs were $73000/unit - remaining constant in Q2 In Q1 - average 3 + Y average costs were $35600/unit, declining...
  20. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    CT will have good (20%) margin with excellent demand for several years - but not a factor until mid 2024. Semi will have even better margin, though it probably won't matter much for several years Next Gen vehicle will have 20% margin at scale and have excellent demand for several years (starting...
  21. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    yes - to reign in the people YT and Twitter talk about it being 50%. Glad he piped up with that to clarify Energy margins.
  22. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    With tonight's shareholder report Tesla is now stating a production capacity of 2M vehicles, with guidance to produce 1.8M this year. Their goal is to increase production YoY by 50%, which would mean 2.7M vehicles in 2024. I know they have room to grown in Berlin and Texas, and Texas is...
  23. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Here is a summary that I've been maintaining. I believe this is the latest updates from these sources, but I haven't checked some of them in a couple days: Source EPS Q1 2023 (GAAP) Troy Teslike $0.76 @petit_bateau $1.05 James Stephenson (YT) $0.89 Matt Smith (Good Soil) (YT)...
  24. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Q1 EPS results from Tesla are going to be very very interesting. All of the price cuts and increases, combined in the ramp improvements in Austin+Berlin and declining materials costs. I think its going to be extremely challenging for anybody (including both the enthusiast retail investors and...
  25. damonbrodie

    The Resource Angle

    I've done some reading on TMC. Sounds like an interesting and innovative idea, but given their revenues are still at zero it seems like it is a very risky bet at the moment. I hope they can move past the chasm between "idea" and "profitability"!
  26. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    So 70ish percent vehicle growth? That pretty aggressive! Let’s see how that jives with their guidance.
  27. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And the reality is that it is likely that FSD could be ready years before robotaxi as a service is. Anybody that believes robotaxi as a service is widely available in the next 2 years has rose coloured glasses on. FSD as an ADAS - maybe/probably.
  28. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Anybody have any Q4 EPS thoughts? What about Q1? 🙃
  29. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Perhaps if they sold 11 semis its not of consequence?
  30. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    What he said was: So not greater than 50% growth. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/10/20/tesla-tsla-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript/
  31. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    It was a typo - Sorry about that - will try and edit it. (update - too much time passed - can't edit it.)
  32. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Here are the Q4 delivery estimates I've gathered so far in advance of the reporting on Jan 2. As usual it will be fun to see how comes closest. @The Accountant I think you use Troy's number of 428K? Rob Maurer 434.1K @Troy 428K Tesla Economist 430K @petit_bateau 442.7K 462.7K (ggr...
  33. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Wow - that's quite a spread between @Todesbuckler and @petit_bateau ! @petit_bateau you reference Produced/qtr. I assume you are equating Produced and Delivered since TSLA only really uses vehicles delivered in their quarterly earnings?
  34. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Are there any Q4 EPS guesstimates out there yet? The Street has it at $1.07/share (GAAP EPS): https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/earnings
  35. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm curious - are folks here impressed with the physical demo at the beginning of the presentation? I'm personally surprised the demo was about the Bot walking. There is nothing really novel shown so far.
  36. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    The other one to track will be Tesla Daily (Rob Maurer). We'll likely see that estimate at the end of next week when he's back from vacation.
  37. damonbrodie

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I find it useful to get an average of the quarter EPS projections. Here is what I've tabulated so far: Source Q3 Estimate (GAAP - Diluted) The Accountant (TMC) $1.25 Gigapress (TMC) $1.32 petit_bateau (TMC) $1.28 Tesla Economist (YT) $1.64 James Stephenson (YT) $1.25 Wall Street...
  38. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He's adding more reasons. Court case still set for October.
  39. damonbrodie

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    there are all kinds of problems with snow. LiDAR and radar aren’t reading snow covered road signs either. Bad weather is a usecase to be handled after fair weather fsd is solved.
  40. damonbrodie

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    I think they have worked really hard to avoid doing any of this. Maybe I'm wrong, but if you get into manual pathing then that data has a shelf life as things slowly change over time. I expect they have been taking the "high road" on this and trying to keep the pathing as a pure algorithmic...
  41. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Any only a little more than a month away from P+D numbers for Q3.
  42. damonbrodie

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    One possibility is those people are wrong and have a proclivity to that topic and enjoy debating it :) We are literally watching 10.69 rolling out and are seeing AMAZING results over just the previous release on top of the fact that the management team at Tesla have been reiterating they think...
  43. damonbrodie

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    The sensors on my Hyundai go crazy when I'm backing up in the snow. To be honest, I don't think any form of robotaxi will be running in a snowstorm. Certainly not for several years beyond any initial introduction.
  44. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Any they will only ship them if they sense that there will be a request by the German government to use less gas/electricity. Edit: Ninja'd by Mengy (above)
  45. damonbrodie

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    Robotaxi and autonomous driving are the same thing from the car from a driving systems perspective. Robotaxi layers on the "taxi" part in the software that deals with payment, hailing, etc. At least one of the options on the poll should have been "Tesla updates to HW4 + the new Samsung HD...
  46. damonbrodie

    Lidar lost Tesla the robotaxi?

    The items in the poll are skewed to a specific perception. (X) Tesla will win autonomous driving because they chose a superior approach with hardware and the latest AI tech.
  47. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How does the IRA help the stock price? Tesla can sell up to the production limit of the factories. They will do that with or without the rebate.... (not trying to be sarcastic)
  48. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well those EVs don't last one year :cool: If a Tesla is on the road 10 years and they make 20M cars a year then it takes out 10% of oil.
  49. damonbrodie

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    pre-market for TSLA looks ugly right now. $888 down 2%. No real news to go on - maybe worrying about suppliers and power in China? Edit: Seems rough across a basket of tech stocks I just checked.