Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

[Tam]

...
I would like to know if the AP understands that you would like to change lane
BUT the AP verifies that it is safe to do so,...

Human will continue to check for safe lane change for AP1.

Someday, AP2 will do lane change all by itself without human checking for safety.

Currently, both AP1 and AP2 do check for safety before comply to the lane-change signal but their capability is now still very limited so it is still possible to get into an accident if a driver rely on the automation without a safety check from human.

All of AP2's cameras are not currently used for lane change yet. There are no rear radar for lane change or any mention of that addition for future.

Thus, if there's car speeding very fast from behind, and I don't check that from far away, current AP1 and AP2 are incapable of detecting that speeding car from far away and out of it range (but human can), and according to its sensors and assessment, it's clear for them. And when it automatically changes lane at that time, it might be a perfect time for high speed collision.

...How much delay occur between the moment you trigger the turn signal and the moment the car starts changing lane?

Previous versions could have a some lag time but current version is instantaneous.

 

[mongo]

You can see this in the video shared earlier in this thread where a white or silver car strays into the gore point as a result of lane and destination confusion and the drivers on both sides of it happily drive right up and box them in (not with intent to harm, but definitely without regard to their plight).

The white car hit their brakes, let up, then tried to change lanes while still hitting their brakes (no signal to let anyone know they wanted to move over). The SUV managed to not rear end them, and the dash cam car slowed down to let them in, but the white car slowed down more. White car could have changed lanes in front of dash cam car or the car in front of it.

 

[SMAlset]

Sometimes slowing down for cars who weren't paying attention can result in you getting rear ended and even your car being shoved into the car whose driver you were trying to help.

 

[Reciprocity]

Or, more telling about the state of rush hour driving around here...

Even the slightest stray into that gore point (as part of, say, a reasonably vigilant and supervised attempt to collect data on how often and how far AP might stray) would be considered by the toxically aggressive rush hour drivers in that area as an opportunity to advance at the expense of your escape routes.

You can see this in the video shared earlier in this thread where a white or silver car strays into the gore point as a result of lane and destination confusion and the drivers on both sides of it happily drive right up and box them in (not with intent to harm, but definitely without regard to their plight).

Yes, I moved to IL from CA and I can attest. The last thing you do when you want to change lanes is put your blinker. Its a single to the car to speed up and make sure you cannot change lanes. Change lanes while accelerating and putting your blinker on at the same time. In So Cal, its all one aggressive motion or you risk being blocked.

 

[pete8314]

I'm sure that's true, it's so sad though. If there's one thing I remember from my driving test ahem - 30 years ago - is 'Mirror, Signal, Maneuver'. These days, and here in Dallas too, it's been abbreviated to 'Maneuver'.

 

[Padelford]

The cause of the fire is obvious. The battery case was smashed, leading to the cells or other parts of the module shorting together and causing the cells to overheat. This process does not happen fast like a gasoline fire, it takes some time to develop. The problem is that it's hard to put out because it's encased and the electrolyte is inherently flammable.

Everyone seems to forget that the battery pack is liquid cooled (not water), and that liquid around the batteries probably helped delay or reduced the fire potential of the compromised battery pack.

 

[mongo]

Everyone seems to forget that the battery pack is liquid cooled (not water), and that liquid around the batteries probably helped delay or reduced the fire potential of the compromised battery pack.

Each cell has an anti-fire lining, and is in a steel can with a vent on top. The spacing and cooling tubes likely help also.
From the images and immediate post crash footage, it looked like only the smashed module was involved, and that was like small roman candles. The bulk of the smoke may have been the interior (but not seat foam) burning.

 

[Padelford]

You should be worried. The conversation here has focused mostly on Caltrans responsibility in this fatality, but that's not something you can do anything about in the short term. The real issue for Tesla owners in this crash is: did the car have any responsibility? You can't do anything to change the behaviour of other drivers, or Caltrans right now, but how you operate your car in regards to when you trust Autopilot and when you don't, is something you can change starting right now.

If the car was traveling in the right side HOV lane, there is no probable sequence of events where it should have hit the barrier. That is, unless AP was on, and with adverse light conditions, followed the wrong solid white line, i.e. the one on the left side of the gore point, instead of the line it should have followed on the right side of the gore point. In such a scenario, assuming the driver was not paying attention, AP would have guided the car straight into the barrier at cruising speed.

Current 2018.10.4 software would not have allowed the vehicle to hit the barrier head-on. One of the big improvements in this build is that AP will sense a stopped vehicle ahead and apply brakes & stop. The radar would have detected all the metal in the barrier and tried to stop the MX.

 

[SMAlset]

Each cell has an anti-fire lining, and is in a steel can with a vent on top. The spacing and cooling tubes likely help also.
From the images and immediate post crash footage, it looked like only the smashed module was involved, and that was like small roman candles. The bulk of the smoke may have been the interior (but not seat foam) burning.

I read somewhere or heard on one of the news stations that the airbags caught on fire, I'm thinking maybe from sparking from the batteries and then the fire spread through the cabin. You can see from the early photos that the airbags deployed and looked as expected in normal crash scenes. There was an interview with one of the guys across the street who said they heard a loud explosion and saw sparks flying up and then CBS had that photo of the car with tall flames...all after the driver was removed by good samaritans. Don't think I ever saw any footage of when the fire spread from the batteries to the whole interior of the car. The exterior of the roof was all flaky and charred and I couldn't help noticing that the exterior of the car's blue paint looked in pretty good shape.

 

[Padelford]

[QUOTE="LMNOP, post: 2642561, member]

Could it be possible that if AP was engaged, the car was following another vehicle left of the gore point to the 85 ramp? Perhaps the driver realized late that he was in the wrong lane, and signaled the car to change lanes to the right to stay on 101. But, due to the white line markings in the gore point, could the car have moved right into the gore point thinking that it was in a lane? This is total speculation on my part. I'm looking for opinions from those of you who are familiar with the AP technology on the likeliness of this scenario.[/QUOTE]

Having used AP for perhaps thousands of miles , and having put hundreds of miles on the latest version of AP software, what you describe is highly unlikely.

@TEG posted a few pages back what is the most likely accident scenario, which implies that Walter was in the left lane & realized too late he wanted to be on 101 and tried to steer over to the main freeway. If CALTRANS had reset the energy absorber at the gore point, Walter may have survived. I’m very sorry.

 

[Padelford]

I can confirm AP 2 allows you to cross solid white lines. I've even posted videos on it lane changing into the shoulder.

Under what firmware version?

 

[wallstguy]

Under what firmware version?

Haven’t tried with 10.4 but all preceding versions allowed this

 

[Padelford]

At some point this whole discussion will have (already?) "jumped the shark" and just turned into morbid rehash. I am starting to ponder if I should just call it a day and stop thinking about this any further.

I agree. Unless more new data like eyewitness reports, we need the FULL CHP report, plus any possible data dumps from the Tesla.

 

[Padelford]

Haven’t tried with 10.4 but all preceding versions allowed this

Repeat your test with 10.4. Since the side cameras were turned on, it behaves very different.

 

[mongo]

I read somewhere or heard on one of the news stations that the airbags caught on fire, I'm thinking maybe from sparking from the batteries and then the fire spread through the cabin. You can see from the early photos that the airbags deployed and looked as expected in normal crash scenes. There was an interview with one of the guys across the street who said they heard a loud explosion and saw sparks flying up and then CBS had that photo of the car with tall flames...all after the driver was removed by good samaritans. Don't think I ever saw any footage of when the fire spread from the batteries to the whole interior of the car. The exterior of the roof was all flaky and charred and I couldn't help noticing that the exterior of the car's blue paint looked in pretty good shape.

Yeah, air bags and seat covers burned based on the before and after shots. Not sure much else did, maybe some plastic trim.

 

[buttershrimp]

Guys I figured out why it caught fire! Apparently a 3 ton vehicle slammed into the sharp edge of a concrete barrier going over 70 mph. I know I know, it’s a crazy theory.

 

[SMAlset]

Yeah, air bags and seat covers burned based on the before and after shots. Not sure much else did, maybe some plastic trim.

Makes me wonder if the airbags weren't there hanging draped down if the interior would have still caught fire given the batteries were at that point located more or less outside of cabin.

 

[mongo]

Makes me wonder if the airbags weren't there hangimg draped down if the interior would have still caught fire given the batteries were at that point located more or less outside of cabin.

Fire may have started at seat fabric then spread to air bag? Wind, sparks, ricochet...

 

[MXWing]

Yes, I moved to IL from CA and I can attest. The last thing you do when you want to change lanes is put your blinker. Its a single to the car to speed up and make sure you cannot change lanes. Change lanes while accelerating and putting your blinker on at the same time. In So Cal, its all one aggressive motion or you risk being blocked.

It's not that horrible. Maybe 50 / 50 on who speeds up and who slows down.

It's not always dog eat dog world. I try to let people in when I can. When people let me in, I wave at them.

Even if you are orderly 6/10 times, you will make the world a better place - versus not trying at all.

 

[Padelford]

Ok. I see. Technically, TACC is a subset of Autopilot but the behavior is the same: Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't.

TACC uses camera and radar.

After the Florida crash, Tesla wants RADAR to be the primary sensor because for that crash, RADAR did detect the big gigantic trailer tractor fine so it wanted to confirm with the camera.

The camera couldn't recognize the trailer tractor because of its white color paint blended into the bright background so it's clear as far as the camera could perceive: No obstacles.

The RADAR believed the camera's assessment and thought that must be a stationary road sign above so no brakes were issued.

Tesla said that it tweaked the RADAR so it should work better now.

Well, before this incidence, the RADAR allowed the system to slam into a stationary big gigantic red truck at 65 MPH but the driver is fine. So NTSB is sending a team to investigate why the system didn't brake.

I am glad that TACC has been working flawlessly for you but not so if you see all those reports of mishaps.

Others have explained that Tesla RADAR is not designed to brake for stationary objects. If an object registers a speed, it must be an obstacle but if an object is registered as 0 speed, it must be a stationary object.

The trick for RADAR is to discriminate which ones are threatening objects and which ones are not.

That's why Tesla will have TeslaVision from cameras to help RADAR out. But I am not sure when TeslaVsion will be activated!

IMHO, 10.4 would have either prevented the Model S collision with the fire truck or it would have made the collision significantly less severe. It all depends on how much time the fire truck was unmasked to the MS and the MS’s speed after the car ahead moved out of the way.