Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

[Robwoodruff]

Could it be possible that if AP was engaged, the car was following another vehicle left of the gore point to the 85 ramp? Perhaps the driver realized late that he was in the wrong lane, and signaled the car to change lanes to the right to stay on 101. But, due to the white line markings in the gore point, could the car have moved right into the gore point thinking that it was in a lane?

The auto pilot would not have changed lanes across the solid white line but the driver can take over any time and cross the lines and run into the barrier.

 

[buttershrimp]

Could it be possible that if AP was engaged, the car was following another vehicle left of the gore point to the 85 ramp? Perhaps the driver realized late that he was in the wrong lane, and signaled the car to change lanes to the right to stay on 101. But, due to the white line markings in the gore point, could the car have moved right into the gore point thinking that it was in a lane? This is total speculation on my part. I'm looking for opinions from those of you who are familiar with the AP technology on the likeliness of this scenario.

We are all so bummed about this accident, best wishes to you and his family. In my opinion:

1) I see this version as very unlikely but possible, the reason being lane change would likely not be available with lane lines changing ... if it were to allow a lane change into a non-lane like a shoulder , the width of the shoulder usually stays fixed.

2). In my opinion there was likely another car in front of him, and he seems to be changing lanes in TACC not AP in order to get the vehicle to change lanes in this manner. In my opinion the sun and the seams in the pavement would not cause this... the reason I doubt AP was engaged is that it tends not to miss lane lines like that, ... in my opinion , cal trans lack of horizontal lines and the lack of a barrier lead to his death. It’s possible that AP was to blame but I doubt it... if anything, a more aggressive AP may have prevented this... right now drivers have to disengage to switch highways etc... this is a possible example of how a company being too careful in deploying its technology (the polar opposite of uber). It’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. One thing I can virtually guarantee you is that Tesla will go to great lengths to prevent several deaths in the future due to this accident.

The scariest thing about this particular accident is that it could happen to the most competent and attentive of drivers if a lead vehicle blocked view of the barrier... another vehicle cutting over ahead of him could have his the barrier just as easily

 

[Bubslug]

My reason for worry is not the AP system, Iooking at the images and having considerable experience driving AP2, I doubt the likelihood of Autopilot causing this.....

You might doubt Autopilot could fail in the scenario I described, but at least one person posted here (Alset72) that it did in fact fail at this location in the mode I described.

The assumption of most posters here is that the Model X was traveling in the left most HOV lane and tried to cut across the gore point at the last minute, but at this point we don't know which lane the car was traveling in prior to the gore point. My point is that if the car was traveling in the other (right) HOV lane that by the principles of Occum's Razor, the most probable explanation is the car simply drifted left after the gore point on AP.

The simplicity of scenario I outlined is that it doesn't involve mistakes by other drivers, or reckless behaviour/mistakes by the Model X driver, or substance impairment, or abnormal traffic movement/speed differentials. It only needs 4 basic assumptions:

1. The Model X was in the right hand HOV lane.
2. The car was on AP
3. The driver was inattentive, and
4. The lighting for APs lane resolvling was suboptimal.

Number 4 appears to be true, the other 3 I don't know yet.

 

[gregincal]

Given the huge number of people in totally ordinary non-autopilot cars I see realizing at the last second they are in an exit only lane and swerving to get back on the freeway across a section exactly like this, I don't see why people feel autopilot has to be involved at all. It's so easy to space out on a commute, and humans are bad at making split second decisions like this.

 

[TEG]

Also, this should be obvious, but, please, nobody should be experimenting with auto lane change there just to see what happens. We don't want to find out the hard way that someone can fool it into heading into the barrier. At this point, I am assuming that Tesla would be analyzing their data to know what would happen if that circumstance happens.

 

[gregincal]

You might doubt Autopilot could fail in the scenario I described, but at least one person posted here (Alset72) that it did in fact fail at this location in the mode I described.

The assumption of most posters here is that the Model X was traveling in the left most HOV lane and tried to cut across the gore point at the last minute, but at this point we don't know which lane the car was traveling in prior to the gore point. My point is that if the car was traveling in the other (right) HOV lane that by the principles of Occum's Razor, the most probable explanation is the car simply drifted left after the gore point on AP.

He could have been traveling in that lane and at the last second realized he wanted to take the 85 exit. I've actually wanted to take that exit and passed it before when not paying attention. I find that far more likely than a driver wouldn't notice for that length of time that autopilot wasn't in it's lane. I find it easy to space out going along in a lane autopilot or not, but I snap out of it instantly if autopilot goes even close to the lane line.

 

[LMNOP]

The auto pilot would not have changed lanes across the solid white line but the driver can take over any time and cross the lines and run into the barrier.

Thank you. This is the info I was looking for.

1. The Model X was in the right hand HOV lane.
2. The car was on AP
3. The driver was inattentive, and
4. The lighting for APs lane resolvling was suboptimal.

Number 4 appears to be true, the other 3 I don't know yet.

This is scary if AP would drift left like this, but IMO this is the best hypothesis so far. I believe #1 above to be true, because he did have the HOV sticker and why wouldn't you during rush hour? I'm hoping Tesla will be able to determine #2. We'll never know #3 but can only assume.

He could have been traveling in that lane and at the last second realized he wanted to take the 85 exit.

Unlikely because he was heading to work in Sunnyvale which would have him continue on 101-S.

 

[TEG]

From the debris seen embedded in the Smart Cushion, I think the slicer part of it may have hit the Model X something like this:

It looks like maybe it grazed the left tire. It looked like there was a torn left tire up against the smart cushion. It is hard to know if people moved car bits around as they tried to clear the area.

Also hard to say if more of the car was to the right of the barrier, or the car was headed back towards 101 when it hit the smart cushion.

The windshield being so far to the right suggests to me it was heading back towards 101 not just straight ahead.

 

[SMAlset]

An obvious, relatively cheap way to prevent (most) people from swerving across the gore area is to put up those plastic candlestick posts (delineators/bollards). They can start on the solid white line before the Y split and go all the way to the crash attenuator. They should also repaint those worn lines and probably add chevrons. I would also either add Botts dots at the perimeter of the gore area or maybe rumble strips. That way even if you aren't looking, you get feedback. None of this is very costly or complicated.

All of that is described in this Federal Highway Administration document.

BTW Botts Dots are being phased out FWIW.

 

[Icer]

It looks like maybe it grazed the left tire. It looked like there was a torn left tire up against the smart cushion.

And the wheel was sheared into two pieces.
The wheel was split in half.

One half came to rest to the left and just past the impact spot.
Looks less than 2 feet from the point of impact.
The inner part of the wheel ended up off to the right.

This locates the impact point to me,
as i cannot think of how else
a wheel could be split like that?
Anyone ever seen that before?

 

[mongo]

Post 134 links to local TV coverage and CHP report.

According to the California Highway Patrol, a blue Tesla Model X was driving southbound on US-101 and state Highway 85 junction at freeway speeds when the driver lost control and ran into a median barrier causing the car caught fire. The Tesla was then hit by a white Mazda as it landed on a lane and then hit by a gray Audi in the next lane. A total of three vehicles were involved.

 

[SMAlset]

@Icer are you talking about the tire that is shown resting on the barrier? My husband and I were discussing it yesterday and notice the rubber was ripped apart so the tire was no longer a complete circle. Which I guess would make sense because the wheel rim was separated from it and it looks like it broke apart near where the rim connected to the suspension system.

 

[SMAlset]

Unfortunately I don't see the CHP statement specifying which of the HOV lanes (85 or 101) he was in prior to the accident. Saying he lost control could mean a lot of things. Was he avoiding a car that was coming close to him, did he see and try to avoid road debris, did he have a medical emergency?

BTW from one report somewhere early on that I read there was a panel truck in the vicinity because when the accident occured another car apparently stuck the panel truck during the Tesla's crash (maybe avoiding debris) and I believe why they originally in a TV broadcast said it was a 5-car accident.

 

[TEG]

And the wheel was sheared into two pieces.
The wheel was split in half.

One half came to rest to the left and just past the impact spot.
Looks less than 2 feet from the point of impact.
The inner part of the wheel ended up off to the right.

This locates the impact point to me,
as i cannot think of how else
a wheel could be split like that?
Anyone ever seen that before?

Yeah, maybe hit more like this:

In which case the left crumple zone rod (whatever they call that) may have jabbed right through the middle of the Smart Cushion.
I didn't notice either of those crumple structures in the photos. I wonder where they ended up.

 

[Icer]

@Icer are you talking about the tire that is shown resting on the barrier?

I think you are referring to what must have been the right front wheel,
came to rest ahead of the car, with some drive train/suspension bits still connected.

I am referring to the left front wheel,
Two shots from Kron4 videos.
1. Half the wheel came to rest to the left of the barrier.
The tire is visible to the right in that shot.

2, Second part of the wheel is in the collected pile of things.

 

[22522]

I don't see how it can be anything other than a lane charge error. All other scenarios result in a half lateral overlap and too much empty road in front to go unnoticed.

From a triggering perspective, I don't see the left lane ramp triggering a late lane change to the right, but I do see the overpass looming triggering a lane change to the left.

I don't know.

 

[TEG]

People starting moving things around on the scene. I think the original phone cam video shows where things were at first. The news crew footage is after people started "cleaning up".

This may have been part of the Model X left wheel in this first video:

The other picture (from KRON) that was of a pile of stuff on the right side of the wall may show a hubcap from the Mazda that hit it after the initial crash.

 

[Icer]

Yeah, maybe hit more like this:

In which case the left crumple zone rod (whatever they call that) may have jabbed right through the middle of the Smart Cushion.

That is what I was thinking.
Because how else could the wheel split?
The tire must have straddled that part.

if the above occurred, the right upright would hit battery
about where the worst damage is.

 

[mongo]

Unfortunately I don't see the CHP statement specifying which of the HOV lanes (85 or 101) he was in prior to the accident. Saying he lost control could mean a lot of things. Was he avoiding a car that was coming close to him, did he see and try to avoid road debris, did he have a medical emergency?

Say what now? You're the reason I thought this informative. I figured you got the added details from the video. Or did this only mean the car pool lanes are on the left?

@Az_Rael, that NBCBayArea report and video you linked to was very interesting saying the CHP said he was in the left car pool lane before impacting the barrier and going airborn and then being struck. Still doesn't explain if he was seen avoiding a car or making a sudden lane switch or maybe something else.

 

[wallstguy]

@LMNOP I’ve never found the auto-lane change to be willing to cross a solid white line.

I can confirm AP 2 allows you to cross solid white lines. I've even posted videos on it lane changing into the shoulder.