OMG car fire!

[sakimano]

GM avoided much of the responsibility of the ignition scandal by 're branding' as 'New GM' and claiming 'New GM' cant be responsible for the actions of 'Old GM' or something ridiculous like that....not exactly the same situation I agree, but its an example of the double standard in today's oil driven society with these companies deemed 'too big to fail'.

they went through bankruptcy actually. Legally significant.

I am merely pointing out (as you admit above) these stories are anti-Tesla (actually anti-EV, but since Tesla's are the most popular EV and this is a Tesla forum I referenced that brand)

The media is ravenous for negative tesla stories as tesla is a non-advertising competitor of some of their biggest advertising clients. However the basic fundamental principal of building a sound argument (that tesla fire instances are insignificant as many have stated without any research to back that up) should actually be investigated before stating it as fact. If there are very few tesla fires, but they're far more abundant 'per capita' (per car on the road in this case) I think that could see the 'tesla fire instances are insignificant' argument crushed pretty quickly .

Consider murders in Honduras....there are hardly any (around 5000) relative to the US. (around 17,000). However their population is a fragment of the US population and you are actually 10x more likely to be murdered in Honduras than you are in America. (56 per 100,000 population vs. 5.3 per 100,000 in the US)

To start I want to address something you've mentioned twice now; multiple times you ask "what if Tesla's are 5x more likely to catch fire?" I find it odd how you ask an open question like that, then go on to use that statement as some sort of fact to prove your point. I've never seen any proof that Teslas catch fire 5x more often than an ICE car...in fact its this sort of statement that proves my point about the fear mongering of EVs....

I never said they are 5x more likely to catch fire. I asked what if the numbers show that they are...shouldn't someone check before stating the tesla fire stories are not a legitimate concern?
Here's what I wrote.

What if Teslas are 5x more likely to catch fire than any other brand? Would be a bit 'egg on face' if that was the case and someone was arguing that a few tesla fires aren't a big deal, as in this thread. Maybe it's a very big deal. Without those numbers, we have no idea.

see?

1. There are about 268 million cars on the road in the US (source): https://www.quora.com/How-many-cars-are-there-in-the-US
2. From 2014-2016 there was an average of 171,500 car vehicle fires per year (source): https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf
So, thats a ratio of around 0.064% (171,500/268,000,000)
3. I could also hedge bets and add in refuelling related vehicle fires (those that occur at the gas pump), which amount to an additional 5,020 fires per year on average, but I wont do that (source): NFPA Journal - New Fuels, New Fueling, May June 2017
4. By Q1 2019 Tesla has produced 603,858 cars worldwide (not just delivered in the US). Tesla, Inc. - Wikipedia
5. In the same link it is mentioned that 182,400 Teslas were sold in the US last year
So IF Tesla cars were 5x more likely to catch fire than ICE cars, we should be seeing around 0.06% * 5 = 0.32% of the total number of Teslas go up in smoke, right? Except the problem with that is I haven't seen any evidence that 0.32% * 603,858 = 1,932 Teslas have gone up in flames since they started producing cars?
Also, lets take even last year of sales in the US: if 0.32% of them catch fire, then 0.32% * 182,400 = 584 of the teslas sold last year should catch fire this year.....and I just dont believe we are seeing almost 2 teslas/day in the US catching fire, am I?
Maybe there is an error in my logic because I did this on the fly, so if there is please let me know. But in my opinion this demonstrates that if nothing else EVs are MUCH less likely to pose a fire risk vs ICE vehicles.

yes, the error is you're incorrectly asserting that I claimed teslas are 5x more flamey than other cars. Never did. I simply said people suck at making arguments without doing their homework and that the number of tesla fires vs the relatively tiny % of cars on the road should be investigated before writing the fire concern off as misguided and fear mongering.

You'll note that I never took a side one way or the other. I simply said one should tighten up their argument with facts first.

You still haven't done it either. Instead you've just misread and misunderstood most of what I wrote...then vomited stats that tell us nothing about the propensity for a tesla to catch fire.

 

[sakimano]

Really? All I can say is wow. What's the point of even posting this ridiculousness?

yes, and you don't want to be argumentative and confrontational....riiiiiight.

I posted it because it's the only thing I found that discussed the numbers and I even made fun of it's veracity when posting it.

You on the other hand think I'm posting this as supporting an argument you've decided I'm making that teslas catch fire 5x more than regular cars.

I realise you're a rabid fanboy who has owned a model 3 for 5 minutes but just slow down and RTFS before you type please.

 

[mrbulk]

And since Tesla is simultaneously disrupting the ICE and oil industries as well as going up against the shorts and their own billion dollar agendas, disproportionately sensationalized news against Tesla is inevitable. Nobody wants to go out of business and/or lose $billions if they can help it.

 

[pcons]

yes, and you don't want to be argumentative and confrontational....riiiiiight.

I posted it because it's the only thing I found that discussed the numbers and I even made fun of it's veracity when posting it.

You on the other hand think I'm posting this as supporting an argument you've decided I'm making that teslas catch fire 5x more than regular cars.

I realise you're a rabid fanboy who has owned a model 3 for 5 minutes but just slow down and RTFS before you type please.

I had a feeling you would eventually get around to name calling. Classy.

Let's just agree to disagree. You have your 'perspective' and I have mine. You can call me all the names you want to, and I'm sure in your world that somehow makes you seem right. But to the average person you just come off as....sad.

I've got better things to do than continue this debate where I quite clearly demonstrated using math (do you know what that is?) that PER CAPITA EVs in general are disproportionately conveyed to catch fire in the media...there is zero debate about that fact. It's not even in the same order of magnitude. You should quit while you are behind, you are just embarassing yourself now.

I still think there is some obvious validity to my arguments (you'll find some way to disagree with that I'm sure as well)....if you read though them you would realize an obvious conclusion is even ignoring the 5x factor you brought up (twice), there is zero evidence of Tesla's (or other EVs) are close to that on a PER CAPITA basis....you proved my point exactly with your Honduras argument....

In any event, this isn't productive. Enjoy your car, and thanks for being the welcoming brand ambassador that Tesla owners are so well regarded as being. I looking forward to my '6th minute' of ownership, being the obvious noob that I am....In what world does length of Tesla (or any other EV) ownership equate to a valid opinion? Lets not debate validity of one's points by p3nis wagging how long we have owned an EV for, you're once again proving your juvenile nature by doing so

 

[pcons]

they went through bankruptcy actually. Legally significant.

yes, the error is you're incorrectly asserting that I claimed teslas are 5x more flamey than other cars. Never did. I simply said people suck at making arguments without doing their homework and that the number of tesla fires vs the relatively tiny % of cars on the road should be investigated before writing the fire concern off as misguided and fear mongering.

You'll note that I never took a side one way or the other. I simply said one should tighten up their argument with facts first.

You still haven't done it either. Instead you've just misread and misunderstood most of what I wrote...then vomited stats that tell us nothing about the propensity for a tesla to catch fire.

huh, I thought that the below statement addressed all of what you just tried to misrepresent above...go figure

Even if my math above is off by an order of magnitude, that would mean we should be seeing 50-60 Tesla fires/year in the US...that's 1/week for an entire year. If that happened the media would be having a feeding frenzy. As it is, 1 happens in China with no real back story, and its front page news everywhere

P.S 1 order of magnitude is 10x, so I've shown that even if Teslas are 1/2 (5/10 = 1/2 since you have difficulty with math) as likely as ICE cars to be involved in a roadside fire there should be 50 fires/year in the US...which there clearly isn't...therefore EVs are much less than an order of magnitude below ICE cars for catching fire per capita....maybe you were confused and didn't know what an order of magnitude means?

Crap...I just let myself get sucked into an internet flame war with a troll....I should know better. Anyway, enjoy living under your bridge sir!

 

[darkenergy]

Crap...I just let myself get sucked into an internet flame war with a troll....I should know better. Anyway, enjoy living under your bridge sir!

I humbly apologize for mentioning that "Those numbers are available...".

Nice job on the detective work though, your estimate was in the same ball park as my own.

 

[sakimano]

huh, I thought that the below statement addressed all of what you just tried to misrepresent above...go figure



P.S 1 order of magnitude is 10x, so I've shown that even if Teslas are 1/2 (5/10 = 1/2 since you have difficulty with math) as likely as ICE cars to be involved in a roadside fire there should be 50 fires/year in the US...which there clearly isn't...therefore EVs are much less than an order of magnitude below ICE cars for catching fire per capita....maybe you were confused and didn't know what an order of magnitude means?

Crap...I just let myself get sucked into an internet flame war with a troll....I should know better. Anyway, enjoy living under your bridge sir!

I'm quite good at math actually. Not sure why you're calling this a flame war, or calling me a troll after suggesting I suck at math. Shame you can't engage civilly. Best of luck.

 

[sakimano]

I humbly apologize for mentioning that "Those numbers are available...".

Nice job on the detective work though, your estimate was in the same ball park as my own.

so we're using estimates? Neat.

let us know when you come back with those numbers

 

[pcons]

I'm quite good at math actually. Not sure why you're calling this a flame war, or calling me a troll after suggesting I suck at math. Shame you can't engage civilly. Best of luck.

Maybe its because of this statement you made below ?

I realise you're a rabid fanboy who has owned a model 3 for 5 minutes but just slow down and RTFS before you type please.

So, somehow the length of time I've owned a Tesla somehow makes an argument more or less valid? Yeah, ok. I already addressed your comments above a few times, and you somehow seem to pretend like I didn't point this out already....you cant claim to engage civilly while trying to shame someone about the length of time they have owned something sir. I'd be more than happy to compare who has owned more EVs and driven more EV kilometers, and sold more people on EV technology, because I'm quite positive I know who would 'win' that comparison....but I'm also mature enough to know that proves nothing about the validity of one's argument.

I just have one last question for you: why are you even bothering to re-engage in this conversation? You clearly have a different opinion from me (and pretty much everyone else on this thread...so that should be a clue to you ), so let it go man....or please by all means prove your trolliness and keep replying here....I'm just here for the entertainment to see what lame response you come back with next...I'm sure I'm not the only one who will enjoy to see you spiral further.

I'll give you another week to respond, since it appears that's how long it takes you to come back with your extremely well thought out logical arguments such as:

I'm quite good at math actually.

You are bad at math because even your clickbait article you posted earlier admitted to something like, what, 14 Model S fires and 2 Chevy volt. Chevy has shipped something like 150,000 volts, and Tesla over 600,000....so lets do some 'numbers' (again) as you asked for:

(14+2)/(150,000 + 600,000) = 0.0021% (and I'm even giving the fact that some of those fires werent even started by the car)

Here's some more 'numbers' for you (repeated from above since you didn't read them). Number of car fires in US divided by the total number of cars on the road in the US:

171,500/268,000,000 = 0.064%

Now comes the fun part:....do you know what 0.064%/0.0021% is? 30x

.....I'll let an adult explain to you why that number is relevant

 

[darkenergy]

so we're using estimates? Neat.

let us know when you come back with those numbers

You clearly didn't have the attention span to read pcons' write up, with numbers, where he modeled the relative safety of a BEV vs an ICE vehicle. Those were stats from the real world. The conclusions are solid, not anecdotal.

For clarity:

anecdotal
(of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research

model
a simplified description, especially a mathematical one, of a system or process, to assist calculations and predictions

 

[sakimano]

Maybe its because of this statement you made below ?



So, somehow the length of time I've owned a Tesla somehow makes an argument more or less valid? Yeah, ok. I already addressed your comments above a few times, and you somehow seem to pretend like I didn't point this out already....you cant claim to engage civilly while trying to shame someone about the length of time they have owned something sir. I'd be more than happy to compare who has owned more EVs and driven more EV kilometers, and sold more people on EV technology, because I'm quite positive I know who would 'win' that comparison....but I'm also mature enough to know that proves nothing about the validity of one's argument.

I just have one last question for you: why are you even bothering to re-engage in this conversation? You clearly have a different opinion from me (and pretty much everyone else on this thread...so that should be a clue to you ), so let it go man....or please by all means prove your trolliness and keep replying here....I'm just here for the entertainment to see what lame response you come back with next...I'm sure I'm not the only one who will enjoy to see you spiral further.

I'll give you another week to respond, since it appears that's how long it takes you to come back with your extremely well thought out logical arguments such as:



You are bad at math because even your clickbait article you posted earlier admitted to something like, what, 14 Model S fires and 2 Chevy volt. Chevy has shipped something like 150,000 volts, and Tesla over 600,000....so lets do some 'numbers' (again) as you asked for:

(14+2)/(150,000 + 600,000) = 0.0021% (and I'm even giving the fact that some of those fires werent even started by the car)

Here's some more 'numbers' for you (repeated from above since you didn't read them). Number of car fires in US divided by the total number of cars on the road in the US:

171,500/268,000,000 = 0.064%

Now comes the fun part:....do you know what 0.064%/0.0021% is? 30x

.....I'll let an adult explain to you why that number is relevant

and you appear to have missed where, 3 or 4 times, I posted the fire clickbait article and made fun of it myself. But again, you think you're taking me down by saying I was seriously posting that as evidence? lololol keep going !

 

[sakimano]

You clearly didn't have the attention span to read pcons' write up, with numbers, where he modeled the relative safety of a BEV vs an ICE vehicle. Those were stats from the real world. The conclusions are solid, not anecdotal.

For clarity:

anecdotal
(of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research

model
a simplified description, especially a mathematical one, of a system or process, to assist calculations and predictions

no I didn't fully read it because he's lost and he's arguing with himself...and has no data. I'm just wanting to see the data. You said it's easy to find right? But haven't posted it lol.

as a reminder to you, I never said teslas are more prone to catch fire

let's try it again in capitals

I NEVER SAID TESLAS ARE MORE PRONE TO CATCH FIRE

I said before everyone goes and pans the tesla fire stories as a conspiracy, let's see what the actual numbers are on tesla fires. Nobody has posted them. I posted a link to a horrible clickbait article (and made fun of it) and pcons went off the deep end thinking I was posting it as evidence. I was posting in a pretty obviously satirical fashion...the rest of the forum got that.

Wish people would actually read.

 

[darkenergy]

no I didn't fully read it because he's lost and he's arguing with himself...and has no data. I'm just wanting to see the data. You said it's easy to find right? But haven't posted it lol.

1. There are about 268 million cars on the road in the US (source): https://www.quora.com/How-many-cars-are-there-in-the-US
2. From 2014-2016 there was an average of 171,500 car vehicle fires per year (source): https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf

So, that is about 1 fire per 1,562 vehicles per year.

There have been about 19 Tesla fires, mostly due to collisions, in 6.5 years They have sold about 600,000 vehicles.

600,000 / (19 / 6.5)

So Tesla has a fire rate of somewhere around 1 fire in 205,000 vehicles per year.


So Tesla vehicles are roughly 130 times safer from fire.

Now you could probably argue that ratio up or down a bit by disputing various numbers. But for all practical purposes, any well designed EV is two orders of magnitude safer with respect to fire.

 

[sakimano]

1. There are about 268 million cars on the road in the US (source): https://www.quora.com/How-many-cars-are-there-in-the-US
2. From 2014-2016 there was an average of 171,500 car vehicle fires per year (source): https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf

So, that is about 1 fire per 1,562 vehicles per year.

There have been about 19 Tesla fires, mostly due to collisions, in 6.5 years They have sold about 600,000 vehicles.

600,000 / (19 / 6.5)

So Tesla has a fire rate of somewhere around 1 fire in 205,000 vehicles per year.


So Tesla vehicles are roughly 130 times safer from fire.

Now you could probably argue that ratio up or down a bit by disputing various numbers. But for all practical purposes, any well designed EV is two orders of magnitude safer with respect to fire.

cool. Assuming the 'about 19' number is accurate that's pretty compelling.