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Ordering Process - When Can You Back Out?

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Ok so here is my delimma...

I really want a Model 3. I need another car in a couple years because my daughter will be starting to drive and I plan on letting her use my 2005 Toyota Tacoma. For my commuting needs a Nissan Maxima Platinum would suit my commuting needs just fine. I don't commute very far but I spend a LOT of time in the car in the morning dropping off kids and getting to work in traffic. I want something nice with leather, heated/cooled seats, good get up and go, etc... I could get a Maxima with some heavy negotiations for under 40k out the door. On the gas side of things I currently fill up my 2005 Toyota Tacoma 4x4 every week and a half or so. I am spending maybe $100/month on gas if I am really driving and gas is pretty cheap in Texas. The Maxima would get better mileage so it would probably be a wash as gas prices are going up.

Then comes in my desire to have a Tesla. I really want one but my responsible side and reading the forums here really are confirming my fears that the Tesla Model 3 I want will be pushing over 50k by the time I add on overpriced options to get a good stereo, leather, extended range, etc... Plus I am assuming I have to load it up to get my car in the timeframe I need it.

I plan on being at the Austin showroom early on Thursday to put down my deposit. I think if I am unable to get the $7500 rebate the car will be just too pricey compared to something that would suit my needs like the Maxima. Yes I'll save money on gas so that needs to be taken into account but I'll also have to get a charger installed in my garage. So I am coming to the realization that the cost of the Tesla might be just a little impractical for a dad with 3 kids in private school.

When is the last second to back out and not have any skin in this? Can I see at least if I would be able to order and get under the 200k rebate limit? I wouldn't want to be put in a place where I ordered a 60k car assuming I would get the $7500 rebate and just miss out. How accurate is Tesla at hitting their target dates after you order? If I order I am assuming I am locked in for good. Is this right? This is all new to me.
 
Your reservation deposit is refundable any time after you place it, up until you order the car. Your best bet bet to maximize your opportunity (no guarantees until more is known) to get all or some of the tax credit is placing an order Thursday morning. None have us have any idea what the situation will be for tax credits come the end of 2017 - I think it's likely that Tesla will have sold 150,000 Model S & X in the US by the end of 2017 and will continue selling about 5,000/month of them combined in 2018 in addition to the Model 3s sold at the same time. So the rebate clock will be ticking. If stay on the forum you will have a good sense of how the rebate count and clock is working.
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I'd like Tesla to hit the mark and start deliveries Q4 2017, but their track record on that has been poor. I'd be happy with 1st half of 2018.

I'll see you there, I'll be the guy driving up from San Antonio in the white Model X!
 
Nice! I'll see you there!
I'll be the guy with the clear hair.

Thanks for the feedback. How early do you usually have to place the real order after you are on the waiting list. Will it be so early it will be hard to determine if they are close to the $7500 being cut off?
 
Hmm... He have to be one year of I presume? Or are they starting production one year early?

This employee is speculating that, at the very earliest, Tesla would open up the Model 3 configurator approximately 1 year before the initial deliveries begin. (The Model 3 production schedule remains unchanged.) Based on history, I don't see Tesla opening the configurator that far in advance, but the employee could be speculating that it could happen due to the larger reservation queue.
 
I'm new here, so the following may have to be corrected by more informed forum members ..

  1. Your reservation deposit is locked in when Tesla contacts you to finalize your order.
  2. From that date until delivery some 2 - 6 months pass, if history is a good judge
  3. The tax credit amount will be determined by delivery date
So ...
You may already know at (1) that the tax credit has lapsed, but if not your actual amount can only be estimated up until the actual car delivery. Tesla has been pretty good at giving forward looking car production numbers once they start a line so the estimate of time and cars produced from (1) - (3) is pretty good but not guaranteed.
 
Ok so here is my delimma...

I really want a Model 3. I need another car in a couple years because my daughter will be starting to drive and I plan on letting her use my 2005 Toyota Tacoma. For my commuting needs a Nissan Maxima Platinum would suit my commuting needs just fine. I don't commute very far but I spend a LOT of time in the car in the morning dropping off kids and getting to work in traffic. I want something nice with leather, heated/cooled seats, good get up and go, etc... I could get a Maxima with some heavy negotiations for under 40k out the door. On the gas side of things I currently fill up my 2005 Toyota Tacoma 4x4 every week and a half or so. I am spending maybe $100/month on gas if I am really driving and gas is pretty cheap in Texas. The Maxima would get better mileage so it would probably be a wash as gas prices are going up.

Then comes in my desire to have a Tesla. I really want one but my responsible side and reading the forums here really are confirming my fears that the Tesla Model 3 I want will be pushing over 50k by the time I add on overpriced options to get a good stereo, leather, extended range, etc... Plus I am assuming I have to load it up to get my car in the timeframe I need it.

I plan on being at the Austin showroom early on Thursday to put down my deposit. I think if I am unable to get the $7500 rebate the car will be just too pricey compared to something that would suit my needs like the Maxima. Yes I'll save money on gas so that needs to be taken into account but I'll also have to get a charger installed in my garage. So I am coming to the realization that the cost of the Tesla might be just a little impractical for a dad with 3 kids in private school.

When is the last second to back out and not have any skin in this? Can I see at least if I would be able to order and get under the 200k rebate limit? I wouldn't want to be put in a place where I ordered a 60k car assuming I would get the $7500 rebate and just miss out. How accurate is Tesla at hitting their target dates after you order? If I order I am assuming I am locked in for good. Is this right? This is all new to me.
From past history Tesla has been years off, over three years for Model X, meeting its target delivery date. Even after being assigned a VIN they can be months off the target. Unless something has changed I think early 2018 is aggressive. I was scheduled delivery for the last week of January and my car was delivered on schedule to my Service Center but it took them two month to fix all the problems. I think people have a right to know so they can make informed decisions. Some people don't like to hear these facts and have given me thumbs down for telling it like it is. I think they have a better track record with the Model S.
 
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but the employee could be speculating that it could happen due to the larger reservation queue.

Yes, it does sound like pure speculation... And I am reasonably sure that they're wrong. One thing is to have a relatively small reservation amount for over a year - or even several years. But have customers - especially customers in the price range - commit a year in advance to buy a car? And we know Tesla wants to keep some parts of this car secret for as long as they can? No way.

Your reservation deposit is locked in when Tesla contacts you to finalize your order.

Not precise. It is locked when you have finalized and put in an order for a new car. From you Tesla contacts you and gives you the opportunity to order you have 10 days (according to the reservation agreement) to finalize the order, defer or cancel. When you do configure the car prior to ordering/finalizing you will probably see when Tesla does expect to be able to deliver that order. And I think Tesla gives you about two weeks from finalizing until they actually locks the order.
 
Also, don't forget, the Federal Tax Credit doesn't go right to zero, it gets cut in half for some time frame, then to one quarter.

Pretty sure it's half credit for 6 months unlimited number of cars and then another 6 months at quarter credit unlimited cars.

Remember that it's a tax credit though so you actually need a tax liability to take the credit, which most people have tax refunds. The credit only offsets your tax liability and isn't able to be carried forward. Pretty sure government is saving a ton of money here where people don't know this and only get that one time partial credit due to the tax liability.
 
Not precise. It is locked when you have finalized and put in an order for a new car. From you Tesla contacts you and gives you the opportunity to order you have 10 days (according to the reservation agreement) to finalize the order, defer or cancel. When you do configure the car prior to ordering/finalizing you will probably see when Tesla does expect to be able to deliver that order. And I think Tesla gives you about two weeks from finalizing until they actually locks the order.

Thank you! It seems like I put in the deposit. When I get contacted to place an order I'll be able to have a week to see how many cars Tesla has shipped and look at historic data based on when they expect to deliver my car. Then knowing there is some phase out period I can decide at that time how much car I can afford to order based on what type of fed tax credit I will get.

It appears to me once it gets to the order process they have a better idea of ship time but it can be a couple months added to get the bugs out.

Darryl do you have any idea what the "bugs" were with your car before you took delivery but after the service center received it?