Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Let me tell you, Thursday was a rodeo, an unexpected up and down that could confuse a rider or trader. On the one hand, history suggested that TSLA's excursion above the upper BB on Wednesday would be met with a powerful mandatory morning dip on Thursday. We did in fact see the MMD, but when it was bought off the stock rallied into the green and then the sledge-o-matic was turned on, big time. It was here where you wondered how low would she go because there was no clear target (max pain was way too low to reach). As it turned out, we never hit 194, saw another climb, another descent into the red, and then a climb into the green for the close. The pirates once again lost control of the stock price and this again is bullish.

Here are a few more bullish details. Volume was a mere 72M shares, which should have made manipulations easier. Further, we saw a typical put/call ratio earlier in the week but it has grown to over 1.0, meaning there are now more puts than calls at stake. That relative put buying that recently took place required the market makers to short in order to delta-hedge, which has a downward pressure on the stock price. Yes, that put-sales hedging was part of the robust 63% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts on Thursday. So, we had low volume and the downward pressure from the hedging and the option sellers still lost control of the price. The problem wasn't too many buyers, it was too few sellers willing to part with their shares at these low levels. Let that sink in.

For Friday, the overriding pressure up or down will likely come from the PCE inflation numbers released at 8:30am.

Truflation's performance suggests that June will show a nice drop because of the vertical drop around May31 and the continued drop thereafter. As for May, which is reported on Friday, June 28, it's a guessing game of how that late May peak that fell away at month's very end will affect the PCE numbers.

On Friday, the market makers will definitely try to minimize the damage, but with max pain already at 190 Thursday morning, their goal is no longer draconian. Of course they'd rather tie grandmothers to a railroad track than let TSLA climb above 200 on an options expiration Friday, and so there's that potential drama as well.

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts remained very high at 63% on Thursday.

Comments made by Fed officials on Wednesday caused further concerns about Fed rates on Thursday and we saw yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds rise to about 4.32%

Max pain on Thursday morning rose to 190. You can see that the 190 strike is now put-dominated. All that put buying put downward pressure on the stock from delta-hedging, but the flip side is that with all those puts out there, the market makers don't need TSLA below 190 to max out their earnings on Friday.

Thursday's TSLA options volumes

For next Friday, July 5, max pain is still 185. OTOH, the tall call wall has moved from 200 to 210 strike, giving TSLA a fighting chance to exceed 200 next week. The 1000 lb. gorilla in the room is Q2 Production & Deliveries, which I'm guessing will come out on July 3 and have a huge effect on the week's trading.

What I love about the tech chart is the nice rise in the mid bollinger band and the enormous upward angling of the upper BB. At that angle, TSLA could come back within the bollinger bands simply by holding its ground on Friday.

Conditions:
* Dow up 36 (0.09%)
* NASDAQ up 54 (0.30%)
* SPY up 1 (0.16%)
* TSLA 197.42, up 1.05 (0.53%)
* TSLA volume 72.5M shares
* Oil 81.91
* IV 53.1, 84%
* Max Pain 190
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 63%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: M shares 4.9M share

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Congratulations, longs, TSLA is up $14.87 for the week.

At 8:30am on Friday morning the core PCE inflation numbers came in at 2.6%, as expected. Initially, we saw QQQ dipping in pre-market then rallying in the morning. TSLA behaved a bit stronger, holding its level in pre-market and then running higher in morning market trading. TSLA exceeded 202.50 and held its gains longer than QQQ, but with QQQ fading the market makers were finally able to get traction and start TSLA heading downward. They were not about to give up 200 strike and all its calls without a fight. TSLA spent much of the afternoon bouncing around 196, which was a safe distance below 200, but TSLA climbed into close and managed 197.88 at close, a slight gain for the day.

Thursday's volume had been light but on Friday volume increased to an above average 95.1M shares. Percent of selling tagged to shorts was 64%, indicating a really serious attempt at keeping TSLA below 200 on Friday, and 4pm closing cross volume of 10.7M shares, indicating the manipulative day-shorting required more than 10% of the day's total volume to cover.

All eyes for the coming week are on the Q2 Production and Deliveries report, expected the morning of Tuesday, July 2 (according to Troy). TSLA goes up or down, depending upon the market's reaction to the numbers. We have an interesting situation with many traders expecting a dip into and after the P&D Report, due to a miss, and then TSLA rising into the Aug 8 robotaxi event. Instead of seeing that scenario play out so far, we've seen TSLA rising into the P&D Report, buoyed by the passage of the two most important ballot questions at the shareholder's meeting, the likely release of Master Plan 4, and then the release of Elon's next compensation package which will give details on what may happen for revenues and profitability going forward. These events highlight the transition of Tesla from an automaker to an energy, AI, and robotaxi/'robotics company. Consequently, there are lots of moving parts with Tesla's valuation at the moment.

News:
* Teslarati says that Panasonic should be able to get 2170 cell production for Tesla online in Spring of 2025 from the first half of its Kansas cell plant.

The market makers couldn't keep TSLA below 200 on Friday without real effort, such as 64% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts

Yields on 10 year treasury bonds rose to 4.39% on Friday

Max pain Friday morning was 190, with that strike put dominated and higher strikes call-dominated. You can see that after all the put-buying this past week, the 200 strike was the only threat to their profits but at over 50K contracts high, it was a big one.

Friday's TSLA options volumes

You could see this big week developing.
* In the week ending 6/7, the high shorting managed to keep the stock price and max pain both mostly level with an overlapping close.
* For week ending 6/14 you can see the price deviations from max pain but a save on Friday. TSLA climbed that week.
* For the 6/21 week, not only did TSLA climb, but it closed above max pain.
* For this recent week, TSLA climbed substantially and pulled away from max pain as the week progressed.
Chart courtesy of @JimS

For this coming Friday, July 5, the put/call ratio is a low 0.6 meaning that put are only 60% the number of calls. The tall call wall has moved to 210 strike, which could well be the battle line for the coming week's close if Production and Delivery numbers don't pull the stock down.

The upper bollinnger band has been rising so quickly lately that even with this week's big move the stock price is only 47 cents above it.

For the week, TSLA closed at 197.88, up 14.87 from the previous Friday's 183.01. After nearly two months of stagnation, the stock is finally moving up again. Hoping you spend your weekend with those who most matter to you.

Conditions:
* Dow down 45 (0.12%)
* NASDAQ down 126 (0.71%)
* SPY down 2 (0.39%)
* TSLA 197.88, up 0.46 (0.23%)
* TSLA volume 95.1M shares
* Oil 81.54
* IV 53.7, 86%
* Max Pain 190 for 6/28, 187.50 for 7/5
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 64%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 10.7M shares