Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

@anthonyj I have also been wondering about the potential *weekly* death cross. I think you can see it better on this chart. I think this would be the first time in TSLA history that a weekly death cross would occur. It almost crossed a few years ago, but was averted. Don't mean to crowd your thread @Papafox, but would be curious to hear your thoughts. I will also post this in the TA and trading threads. Thanks!

View attachment 445998

I'm no expert in technical analysis and don't know whether most sophisticated traders put their emphasis on weekly moving averages or daily moving averages. I suspect that with one going up and the other going down there's some element of conflict there, which would lessen the implications of the weekly analysis.

 

[Papafox]

At one point on Sunday, Dow futures were down 300, owing to trade war increased tensions, but a few comments from Trump quickly changed the market's feelings as broader markets soared. Trying to time one's investing around political wranglings is a seriously difficult chore!

Although both TSLA and the NASDAQ remained green throughout the day, TSLA exhibited much more volatility and an apparent pushdown between a little before noon and 2pm. There was no news or broader market movement that justified the decline, and it looked suspiciously like a standard short-seller low volume manipulation as TSLA lacked the climb multiplier that you'd expect. Consequently, TSLA became a bargain in the afternoon and traders and investors took advantage of the manipulation by buying in the final two hours. After the steep climb into close, TSLA closed up for the day 1.70%, compared to 1.85% for NVDA and 1.90% for AAPL. Notice that the final 15 minutes of trading was mostly related to NASDAQ climb, not TSLA-specific sentiment.

Of course for someone who stays closely tuned to TSLA, there were stories today that could spur buying, but they were not covered heavily in the media. Those stories include:
* Leaked photos of Shanghai gigafactory show very substantial progress in preparing the M3 assembly line
* This Bloomberg story about the G7 meeting gives hope that an automotive tariff war with the EU can be avoided

The NASDAQ closed up 1.32%

Shorts were tagged with 46% of TSLA selling today, confirming plenty of manipulations

Looking at Ihor Dusaniwsky's chart, short interest have been amazingly flat in August, suggesting that days with large percentage of selling by shorts are high manipulation days in which covering comes close to equaling selling.

Looking at opricot.com's max pain data, you can see there are lots of open puts below 222.50, so we might see a little help from market makers of Friday afternoon to push the stock price in that direction if TSLA is getting close to that number. The number of calls set to expire Friday below 222.50 is rather low, which makes the robust manipulations we've seen in recent days appear as though more than hedge funds protecting the call sales is involved. I am considering that some big shorts may be trying to take advantage of the macros and Tesla FUD to start a downtrend that would not otherwise exist (through adding steroids to the dips and opposing the climbs). Today was an excellent example of opposing the climb strategy that fell apart in the final 2 hours of the day. Max pain right now sits at 222.50 for Friday, which also looks like the practical max pain too. Tesla news is relatively positive except for the sensational stories such as the Walmart fires.

I think the tech chart for August tells much of the story. Macro woes or Tesla FUD and media overexaggerations (such as the Walmart story) pushed TSLA down multiple times, the stock started to recover, and a few days later a new dip intervened. My guess is that without substantial news or macro intervention, TSLA will be drifting up towards a Friday close around 222.50, but of course "without substantial news or macro intervention" is a Yuge qualifier.


Conditions:
* Dow up 270 (1.05%)
* NASDAQ up 102 (1.32%)
* TSLA 215, up 3.6 (1.70%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 53.89
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts:46%

 

[Papafox]

Short-sellers, be afraid of Elon Musk, be very afraid!

The day opened green with carryover from Monday's run upwards, but more news of a bond yield inversion freaked out some of the more timid investors and TSLA followed the NASDAQ down to bottom out about 1pm and then cross briefly into the green at 3:15pm or so. Volume remained light at 5.4M shares.

So, TSLA just followed the NASDAQ, end of story, right? Well, it wasn't that simple because shorts got tagged with 41.5% of TSLA selling today and we saw some big buying in the final minute of market trading (121K shares), followed by a pre-arranged trade of another 120K shares at 4:06pm and then 32K shares at 5:07pm. Looks to me like shorty did a fair amount of manipulative selling today and then covered on close and after close to keep the push-down effort from being neutralized by the covering. We accept the results of today's trading because it looks like TSLA just was bounced around as it followed the NASDAQ, but the quantity of short-selling suggests that TSLA would in fact have done noticeably better today if the shorts had just ignored their alarm clocks and slept in.

In the next few days, Elon will be traveling to Shanghai for an AI forum, and this could be a great opportunity to highlight that the factory is nearing production capability, which may jolt Wall Street enough to have a positive effect upon the stock. China is determined to see EV sales do well in the coming year and for Tesla to be among the stars. Stay tuned. Also, Musk's success today with the starhopper will help derail stories by Bethany McLean and others that he is some type of fraud. Watching the starhopper today, you can't help but feel that Elon is indeed the real deal.

The NASDAQ dipped 0.34% today, with TSLA not much lower

Short-sellers were tagged with 41.5% of TSLA selling today


Conditions:
* Dow down 121 (0.47%)
* NASDAQ down 27 (0.34%)
* TSLA 214.08, down 0.92 (0.43%)
* TSLA volume 5.4M shares
* Oil 55.52
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 41.5%

 

[Papafox]

Another day, another manipulation-fest for TSLA. Today TSLA showed significant relative strength over the NASDAQ, perhaps because the Dow was also trading significantly higher than the NAS. TSLA of course experienced a mandatory morning dip right at open, but it was quickly defeated and up she went. TSLA peaked above 217 at 12:21pm and then the hedge funds went to work, setting up a descent for TSLA so that it would close no higher than the NASDAQ's gains. Alas, TSLA was uncooperative and so at 3:21pm someone sold nearly 24K shares in a minute to set up a bigger dip and then we saw volume pick up as traders hoping to take advantage of the manipulation jumped in (Editorial note: it's a shame we have to rely on traders to correct a manipulation, but without a SEC that's interested in keeping TSLA trading fair, this is the way things work). The traders bid TSLA up into close.

Volume was an incredibly low 3.1M shares traded today. Longs don't want to sell, many potential investors are sitting on the sidelines right now both because of trade war jitters and because of TSLA's lackluster performance as it is hammered daily with manipulations, and so the hedge funds take advantage of the low volume and tweak the stock price as much as possible to maximize profits on their call sales expiring this week.

The NASDAQ put in a solid though cautious performance today, closing up 0.38%

Thanks to @Lycanthrope , I learned today how to create charts with both TSLA and NASDAQ on them so as to better illustrate the shenanigans going on. As you can see, in the morning when volume was highest, TSLA significantly outperformed the NASDAQ. The short-selling in the low-volume afternoon hours brought TSLA down to the NASDAQ's gains (in percentage) at about 3:30pm. If not for traders starting to figure out the manipulation patterns and jumping in during the final half hour, TSLA would have closed closer to the NASDAQ's 0.38%, and 99% of investors would be clueless about the manipulations that brought TSLA down in the afternoon.

Earlier this week, the Max Pain was 222.50, but look what's happened. The new Max Pain is 220, and that's the realistic Max Pain too, as a close at 217.50 is too profitable for put buyers and 222.50 is now too profitable for call buyers. The shift happened primarily because longs have been buying weekly calls in the 215 to 230 area. Notice from previous weeks that buying weekly calls has been a fool's errand, due to the hedge fund manipulations. Sooner or later there will be a breakout and the weekly call buyers will will make a few dollars, but until then it is consistent losses.

Earlier in the week, I suggested a close at 222.50 would be possible with decent macros this week, but I now readjust that number to 220 in order to take the new Max Pain into account.

Not surprisingly, percentage of selling by TSLA shorts is up a bit today as the hedge fund manipulators took advantage of the low volumes. Shorts were tagged with 43% of TSLA selling today.

Reflecting the goals of the sellers of options, look at the most recent tech chart. Even though news is minimal and macros are up, TSLA has been climbing less and less with this recent dip because volumes are low and the manipulations by call sellers are high.

Conditions:
* Dow up 258 (1.00%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.38%)
* TSLA 215.59, (0.71%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* Oil 55.90
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 43%

 

[ggr]

Volume is always low the week before a three-day weekend, especially this one that marks the end of summer. Many professional traders take time off.

 

[Papafox]

With China signalling that it would rather find a solution to the trade war than retaliate, the broader markets rose, but not nearly as much as TSLA. Dow was up 1.25%, NASDAQ up 1.48%, and TSLA climbed 2.84%.

Looking at the chart, you can see an exaggerated response to the NASDAQ's 10:45am dip. A push-down took place after noon and we saw what appears to be a series of testing TSLA for weakness from 1pm until close. Volume in the final minute was 186K, with a 53K pre-arranged trade at 4:57pm, suggesting that shorts were doing a fair amount of covering after day-shorting TSLA. Because of TSLA's strength and unwillingness to be pushed down, shorts could not make money today and percent of selling by shorts fell to 38%.

The NASDAQ gapped up on open and remained consistent throughout the day. This consistent positive trading gave shorts very little opportunity to exaggerate dips and squelch climbs as TSLA responded to the NASDAQ.

Looking at the S3/Ihor Dusaniwsky short interest in TSLA chart, you can see a slow but steady increase in short interest since mid-August. This timetable corresponds with a couple TSLA bounces off 211 and two climbs into the 220s. Looks like without the short interest increase TSLA would indeed be higher now.

TSLA shorts were tagged with 38% of the selling today, down from yesterday

Looking at the tech chart, you can see TSLA repeating the patterns of the previous August dips, which is to start climbing again. The previous three trading sessions were able to hold TSLA pretty stable, but shorts lost control of TSLA today and it jumped up.

What to expect for Friday? On the negative side we have market makers and hedge funds wanting TSLA to close at the max pain number of 220 (with 222.50 as Plan B). There's also a chance that shorts could try a bear raid Friday afternoon with volume likely to be low as investors are out of the office and heading toward their 3 day weekend vacations. On the positive side, TSLA showed real strength today and if the markets keep climbing there's incentive for TSLA to do so as well.

Conditions:
* Dow up 326 (1.25%)
* NASDAQ up 117 (1.48%)
* TSLA 221.71, up 6.12 (2.84%)
* TSLA volume 5M shares
* Oil 56.61
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 38%

 

[Papafox]

As we last left off, I was in a quandary because although TSLA has regained its mojo this week and wants to climb, TSLA had already climbed above the max pain level of 220 on Thursday. Consequently, both the hedge funds which sold TSLA calls without doing much delta-hedging and the market makers who sold both puts and calls with likely delta-hedging, would be united in trying to pull TSLA down for the Friday option expiration close.

To make thing interesting, good news came out today of China removing the 10% consumer tax from all Tesla models, which caused the stock to zoom up in pre-market trading to above 233, but the shorts tamed the climb and brought TSLA lower where it was capped temporarily in pre-market before edging up into open. After a tiny MMD, TSLA began climbing in heavy trading (122K shares at 9:32pm), exceeded 232, then began the descent to 11:20am as the NASDAQ dipped slightly and shorts sold with vigor to exaggerate that dip. The final 4 hours was mostly a capping job around 225. In the final minute of market trading, 333K shares traded, suggesting covering by the day-trading shorts.

One oddity was the great volume of trading in the morning and yet TSLA shorts were tagged with only 37% of selling today. We could potentially have seen shorts all set up for a big bear raid today and then the good news from China more than neutralized it.

After-hours trading closed up today, suggesting that investors are carrying some buying pressure into the next trading day. Since Monday is Labor Day, the next day for trading TSLA will be Tuesday.

The NASDAQ closed down 0.13%. The chart above looks even more volatile than the TSLA chart, doesn't it? That impression is because of the scale to which the chart is drawn. Take a look at the combined chart below for a more realistic view.

As you can see, the NASDAQ had a pretty mild day. It opened in the green and ended a tiny bit below the green. Unfortunately, the morning dip of the NASDAQ (however small) was enough to justify in people's minds why Tesla was falling this morning. The only way to make Tesla fall this much on a day with only good news and benign macros was for shorts to be selling during the dip and turn it into a dip on steroids. That's exactly what happened. Once TSLA bounced off 225 around 11:25am, there was no way the hedge funds and market makers were going to get it much lower, so they settled on capping TSLA at 225 for the remainder of the day. Thus, between the morning and the afternoon's manipulations, you have a classic example of a sticky dip on steroids. Unless you look at the chart above, however, you wouldn't see the reality because the NASDAQ's gyrations is greatly exaggerated in the chart above it. When you put TSLA and the NASDAQ on the same chart, however, the reality becomes clear.

@Curt Renz in TMC's main investor thread today suggested that hedge funds and market makers would be working to see TSLA close around 225 today, and that's exactly what happened. Look at the open interest chart above from Opricot.com today. In the last few days the number of 220, 222.50, 225, 227.50, and 230 calls had spiked. The sellers of those calls didn't want to lose on all these sales, and so they went about manipulating the stock price so that as many as possible fell out of the money. With unusually low volumes during the past few weeks, TSLA remains an easy target for hedge fund and market maker manipulations.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see the trading for second half of August. The big initial dip was the "bond yield curve inversion" conniption. The two red ballet dancers are the Walmart fire dip, and the most recent long red candle was the Trump "I command you to look for alternatives to producing in China" bad macro day. That's a lot of market commotion for a couple weeks! Notice that after each dip, TSLA started up again and is now close to where it began the three dips. The 50 day moving average is within reach in the near future.

Over the summer, we've seen some negative macro developments
* The trade war with China has intensified, which puts pressure on the worldwide economy
* The U.S. keeping interest rates higher than most countries has resulted in a shift in relative values of currencies . Consequently, the value of other currencies falls relative to the dollar. Tesla did a raise in European vehicle prices this week. Such a raise obviously makes affordability just that much more difficult for buyers in other countries.

On the other hand, this summer Tesla has made huge strides while the stock price has been treading water. Progress includes:
* Q3 deliveries look likely to exceed Q2 deliveries, even without the big inventory with which Q2 began
* A billion dollars of potential revenue from the Fiat-Chrysler agreement in 2020
* Substantial production at GF3 in 2020
* Model Y beginning production in Fremont in 2020
* Tesla Semi production in 2020
* Autopilot's Full self driving feature set should be revealed in 2019, with possibility of FSD in late 2020 (optimistic view) but certainly more incentive some FSD purchases and therefore a substantial margin increase for vehicles
* Costs of Model 3 continue to fall
* "Battery day", in Jan or Feb, when we learn about Maxwell integration into Tesla batteries and how Tesla plans to get first to 1TW or cell production and then to 2 TW
* Tesla insurance available in California and soon in other states. Insurance will be a moneymaker for Tesla and another reason to buy a Tesla because of reduced premiums for many drivers
* Tesla Energy should take off as battery cell production zooms higher and solar tile production expands
* Nearly 40 million shares are still sold short and many will cover when TSLA runs higher again

The interesting thing for us investors is that the negative macro events have been getting priced in but the very positive Tesla progress has yet to be priced in. We know it's coming, though.

For the week, TSLA closed at 225.61, up 14.21 from last Friday's 211.40. Have a great three-day weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 41 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ down 11 (0.13%)
* TSLA 225.61, up 3.90 (1.76%)
* TSLA volume 9.1M shares
* Oil 55.10
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 37%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA's strength this morning was a surprise to many, in light of macros trading down 1%. The strength of the stock was really a reflection of positive sentiment that carried over from Friday, when Tesla was awarded an exception to the 10% consumer taxes that ICE vehicle buyers are now paying. As you may remember, TSLA closed near 225 on Friday after hedge funds and market makers engineered a push down to maximize their profits on expiring options.

The usual response by the hedge funds as the NASDAQ dipped lower after 12 noon would be to push hard for a dip on steroids. TSLA dipped a bit, but at 2pm, as the NASDAQ was still down in the dumpster, TSLA started recovering and heading toward the red/green line. Shorts were tagged with 43% of TSLA selling today, which suggests considerable manipulations. Bottom line: the 43% of selling attributed to shorts, 73K of trading in final minute plus a 25K after-hours pre-arranged trade and only 5.2M volume suggests longs don't want to sell and shorts tried but failed to push TSLA down in the afternoon.

Today's defeat of the short push-down and the relative strength of TSLA is a bullish sign. Other bullish signs are:
* On CNBC today, this video of a neutral TSLA analyst and a TSLA bear yielded no substantial thesis on why Tesla is going to do poorly
* This Forbes article entitled Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered says that oil would have to drop to $10 to $20 a barrel for the economics of using oil as a transportation energy source to be able to compete with electricity.

My feeling is that the hedge funds have likely reached the end of the road in their ability to control TSLA's stock price any longer, given the current price and state of TSLA (Fridays might continue to be an exception). Since the underlying tendency of TSLA is to rise, we may just see that now. Problems that could derail this progress might include low InsideEV numbers tomorrow (fingers crossed that they are good) or a bigger macro dip than today or continued macro malaise. Lacking such developments, I think we go higher.

Both the Dow and the NASDAQ closed down more than 1% today, with the NASDAQ down 1.11%

The hedge funds would like to see TSLA close at 220 or below on Friday, but certainly below 230. If TSLA continues to climb this week, it's a sign that the hedge funds have lost their ability to hold TSLA back as buyers return to the stock.

Short sellers being tagged with 43% of TSLA selling today suggests an increase in manipulation efforts



Conditions:
* Dow down 285 (1.08%)
* NASDAQ down 89 (1.11%)
* TSLA 225.01, down 0.60 (0.27%)
* TSLA volume 5.2M shares
* Oil 54.15%
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 43%

 

[Papafox]

Wow, what a full court press today! Yesterday's strong Tesla trading suggested TSLA was ready to climb, and apparently the hedge funds and their allies in the media had another idea. Today was potentially a threat to parties depending upon a low TSLA price, and so they took steps to remedy a big macro up day that coincided with the InsideEV Tesla delivery guestimate, and the Porsche Taycan reveal.

Helping the hedge funds was a preliminary report from the NTSB for a 2018 Model S accident (Reuters article here) that involved a Tesla running Autopilot 1 that hit a fire truck and the driver was able to walk away from the accident. The NTSB felt Tesla had some fault in the accident and needed to insure that drivers remain more focused on the task at hand. Also, the Porsche Taycan officially launched today, but at $150K and with less room and less range than a Model S, it doesn't look like much of a threat to Tesla.

With the NASDAQ up more than 1% in pre-market trading, TSLA ran even higher, topping 228 at multiple times. Alas, the hedge funds went to work selling TSLA once the market opened and managed to get it down to the red/green line, where it was held for nearly 3 hours in a game of whack-the-mole as everyone awaited the InsideEV numbers. When they were released, so was a CNBC article by none other than Lora Koladny that included an interview with an auto "expert" who gave what Lora was seeking: the most negative possible interpretation of what could happen, including the word "recall". The bots picked up on the story and did some selling, along with the hedge fund selling, and this selling coincided with the release of the InsideEV report, thus taking any ambiguity of the report and making the report look like the market was interpreting it as really bad news.

In actuality, the InsideEV report was pretty positive, with S and X deliveries up in the U.S. compared to May and Model 3 deliveries down only by about 500. Considering that European deliveries are up even without considering all the right-hand drive vehicles delivered so far in Q3, the quarter is looking pretty solid. Keep in mind that S & X ASPs will be up (thx @Right_Said_Fred ) because of no fire sales on pre-raven S and X this quarter, and Model 3 costs should be down because production is up (with likely same number of employees) and because of continued cost improvements.

Thus, the hedge funds sought to take advantage of any ambiguity that existed in the NTSB report, in the Taycan reveal, and in the InsideEV numbers, bundle them, and then sell like sugar to fool traders into thinking that the market is panicking because of bad news about Tesla. If you think this is a good way to do business, then I have a few derivatives from 2008 I'd like to sell you.

Take a look at the volume spikes in the afternoon, however. They started about 2:54pm with 26K shares traded, and went up as high as 89K traded at 3:21pm. Mercy!

The good news? We saw some price recovery from the 3:21pm dip into close, and additional recovery in after-hours trading. At least a few traders can smell a skunk. Also, the Taycan is priced so high that it is no threat to Tesla and August delivery numbers looked pretty darn good, especially when you consider there was no big surplus of inventory at quarter's beginning as Q2 enjoyed.

The NASDAQ traded up 1.3% today in a gradual increase (a chart that is really positive for any NASDAQ stock).

What motivates the hedge funds? Take a look at this updated Opricot chart, and you'll see that call options have really proliferated in the past day. The hedge funds don't want those calls at 225, 230, and 235 to be in the money, so they're pulling out the stops to try and derail the train.

TSLA shorts were tagged with 42.5% of the selling today, suggesting plenty of manipulations. At 4pm, 92K of shares traded suggests lots of day-short covering.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see the hedge funds are trying to keep the pattern going of big push-downs to bring the stock price below the strike prices of the calls they sold that expire on Friday. What's noticeable about this most recent push-down is that it's not as deep as previous ones. The job of manipulating this stock keeps getting more difficult as the good news of Tesla's progress becomes known.

Conditions:
* Dow up 237 (0.91%)
* NASDAQ up 103 (1.30%)
* TSLA 220.68, down 4.33 (1.92%)
* TSLA volume 5.6M shares
* Oil 56.05
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 42.5%

 

[Papafox]

What a week it's been so far. On Tuesday, the macros down over 1% but TSLA was up in the morning and lost only a quarter of the percent lost by macros. This was bulling. Yesterday, the macros were all up (NASDAQ 1.3%), but a calculated and coordinated bear attack in the afternoon with FUD, InsideEV numbers, Porsche Taycan reveal, and a Laura Koladny hit piece in the afternoon sent TSLA down while everyone else was up. Today the macros were way up (NASDAQ 1.75%) on word that China and the U.S. resume trade talks in October. Given the typical tech-like stock multiplier, it wouldn't have been unusual for a tech stock like TSLA to be up 2.25% or even more. Instead we closed up 4%. Why? Part of the answer was the up macros, of course, but an equally large piece of the climb was brought about when investors had a few hours to contemplate yesterday's news, compare it to TSLA's afternoon dip, and call, "Bullsugar!" With U.S. deliveries slightly ahead of Q2's, with European deliveries up in Q3, and with right-hand drive M3s sailing out to distant countries this quarter, Q3 is looking good! Further, Taycan is no threat to Tesla with its high price and sub-par performance. It's a beautiful vehicle, but it won't kill Tesla. Thus, when the macros started heading up today on potentially long-term good news, so did TSLA.

The NASDAQ closed up a full 1.75% and traded solidly throughout the day

Here's part of today's story. While short interest in TSLA edged up in August, it's starting down in September. Why? Tesla is quietly executing well. Dusaniwsky says there was net covering today, which may turn into a trend and completely disrupt the ability for hedge funds to manipulate TSLA as needed to insure profits on call sales. If the short covering increases, the stock is going up. Such covering causes long traders and fence-sitters to jump in and things get interesting from there.

TSLA shorts were tagged with 37% of the stock's selling today, down from the previous two days. As my friend @vgrinshpun likes to say, shorting in an attempt to stop a robust TSLA climb when macros are supporting it is like trying to piss into the wind. Thus, fewer manipulations took place today.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see yesterday's push-down was mild and TSLA has a chance to climb higher soon. I suspect the hedge funds don't want to pay off on those 230 and 235 call options expiring on Friday, however, so expect some possible resistance from both the hedge funds and the market makers in the afternoon.

Conditions:
* Dow up 373 (1.41%)
* NASDAQ up 140 (1.75%)
* TSLA 229.58, up 8.90(4.03%)
* TSLA volume 7.4M shares
* Oil 56.42
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 37%

 

[Papafox]

Yep, we saw the Friday manipulation we were expecting as a bumper crop of 225, 227.50, 230, and 235 call options threatened to go into the money if the manipulators didn't intervene. Moreover, the regular market makers would be joining the hedge funds in the afternoon pushdown because the effective max point point was 225.

What's most interesting was that 407K shares traded in the first minute. With only 4.1M shares trading all day, that first minute of trading represented about 10% of the day's trading. Someone was preparing themselves for mischief, even though no negative news of substance existed and macros were neutral. The selling got hot and heavy with a bottoming out of the MMD about 10:20am and a recovery that several times threatened to go green in early afternoon. The morning dip was designed to try to get TSLA to 225 or below and hold it, but you can see how well that worked out.

The reason we often see a bear attack like this on the day after a nice rise of the SP is that when TSLA is rising, it's unprofitable to try standing in front of the bulldozer as it pushes upwards and forwards. Thus, the hedge funds are now getting in a pattern of attacking the stock the next day, when their tactics aren't as expensive to implement. It's also easier to get results by shorting a stock when it is in the red, than when it is green and rising.

Anyway, the hedge funds did whatever was necessary to keep TSLA from going green on the times it threatened to do so Friday, and after 2pm the regular market makers were likely to join in for a little push-down because they would be losing money at 227.50 and above. A close at 227.45 was an absolute perfect end of the day as far as the market makers were concerned.

The macros traded neutral on Friday with Dow up and NASDAQ down slightly. Although the movements on the NASDAQ look abrupt, they're actually less than half of one percent from high to low. Yawn.

Looking at the Opricot chart from Firday afternoon, you can see that both 222.50 and 225 saw equal numbers of put and call options, and so the regular market makers were likely neutral once TSLA could be pushed below 227.50 for the close.

The percentage of selling by shorts being at 33% for Friday suggests the manipulators loaded up on ammo during the first minute of trading, or found shares to short in dark pools or non-FINRA sites. Plenty of manipulations were indeed evident by the extent ot the mandatory morning dip and the final pushdown into close.

The past week's trading shows that the manipulators are losing a bit of their touch, primarily because the red days are no longer as deep as before and the green days are shaking off attempts to cap the climb. I don't expect the manipulators to change their ways right away.

When does TSLA leave the doldrums and run higher? It could happen at any time as news continue to suggest Tesla is executing well and Q3 looks like it will surprise to the upside. Further evidence suggests that Tesla is not only maintaining their lead over the competition, but increasing it:
* The main TMC investor's thread has become obsessed with the Porsche Taycan and an upcoming drive on the Model S at Nurburgring, perhaps with Nico Rosberg in the driver's seat. What we saw this week is that the only EV yet to look like a serious threat to Tesla was the Porsche, and we learned it is too expensive and doesn't perform well enough to spank the Model S. If Tesla can show a better time at the Nurburgring than the Porsche, it would be great advertising for the new Raven S and X. Fingers crossed.
* This Electrek article refers to a document that shows Canadian battery researcher has been working with Tesla for some time now on a better cathode and electrolyte material that would enable a million miles from a battery before it needed replacement. I think battery day in Jan/Feb is when we hear of the upcoming plans and see the associated market reaction.
* Autopilot V10 could be released as early as next week to early recipients and could show just how substantial the improvements in FSD have been. If the improvements are substantial enough, it could lead to speculation of when TSLA can claim as profits some of the FSD funds that have been collected already but not yet realized on the profit side.

This is an exciting time to be a TSLA investor, and we will indeed break free of the low volume manipulation patterns once the market wakes up to Tesla's accomplishments. For the week, TSLA closed at 227.45, up 1.84 from last Friday's 225.61. Have a great weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 69 (0.26%)
* NASDAQ down 14 (0.17%)
* TSLA 227.45, down 2.13 (0.93%)
* TSLA volume 4.1M shares
* Oil 56.52 on 9/7
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 33%

 

[jrwaters1]

Good Helpful information. Hope we can make the bad guys cry.

 

[pdq]

View attachment 451987
Yep, we saw the Friday manipulation we were expecting as a bumper crop of 225, 227.50, 230, and 235 call options threatened to go into the money if the manipulators didn't intervene. Moreover, the regular market makers would be joining the hedge funds in the afternoon pushdown because the effective max point point was 225.

…………………. huge snip...……………………………….



33%

Papafox:

I continue to be befuddled at your continuing to attribute TSLA stock movement to the conspiracy theory of movement being due to market manipulators versus normal market action, as if TSLA stock was somehow being singled out. There are tons and tons of companies where there are short sellers, and it's not about manipulation, rather it's about managing risk as a professional investor. I manage a portfolio with roughly 50 publicly traded companies in it. I don't hold TSLA right now, but I have in the past. On any one, if I think that market conditions might go in the wrong direction, I'll short it, or I'll buy Put options. It's all about managing risk. I'm not trying to hurt that company, I'm simply trying to avoid a loss and have it being me who gets hurt.

Do you follow any stocks other than TSLA? If so, you know that often abrupt movement (up or down) can occur because of the same perfectly normal conditions that have been around for the 40 years I've been trading. An electronics company goes up against a new competitor and their stock goes down. They then announce better than expected quarterly results and the price goes up. Back in 2006 I made a ton of money on Garmin and Microsoft as their stock prices gyrated up and down. I'd buy on bad news and sell on good. It had nothing to do with covert market manipulators, instead it had everything to do with how Wall Street reacts to news, given that their time horizon is this calendar quarter.

What impact are the trade negotiations with China having on a ton of companies, especially retailers and companies like Caterpillar?

Do you follow the effect of the price of oil's movement in reaction to what's going on in the Middle East and with OPEC whenever there's an announcement?

Forget the conspiracy theory and look at the fundamentals of any company that you want to talk about, and let that company's stock be priced based on it's performance, living up to the guidance that management has given, plain and simple.

 

[willow_hiller]

I continue to be befuddled at your continuing to attribute TSLA stock movement to the conspiracy theory of movement being due to market manipulators versus normal market action, as if TSLA stock was somehow being singled out.

Not to answer for Papafox, but personally this article by Jack Rickard puts it pretty well. Don't let the title dissuade you from reading it: The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks

The crux of the argument is that Tesla shorts don't behave like rational investors. The better Tesla does, the more they short; which goes to show they're not shorting because they believe Tesla will fail. They're shorting in an attempt to rob Tesla of capital to make them fail.

 

[abasile]

The main TMC investor's thread has become obsessed with the Porsche Taycan and an upcoming drive on the Model S at Nurburgring, perhaps with Nico Rosberg in the driver's seat.

I appreciate that the Taycan is only mentioned briefly in your thread. I'm tired of seeing the constant comparisons between the Taycan and Tesla vehicles, especially on Twitter. I don't think the Taycan is all that material to TSLA. The more EVs, the better!

 

[Gwgan]

let that company's stock be priced based on it's performance, living up to the guidance that management has given

Wish it were the case for TSLA. Consider that the most shorted companies are shorted about 1% of market cap but for Tesla it is 20%. They are in a class by themselves, unfortunately.

 

[Papafox]

Papafox:

I continue to be befuddled at your continuing to attribute TSLA stock movement to the conspiracy theory of movement being due to market manipulators versus normal market action, as if TSLA stock was somehow being singled out. There are tons and tons of companies where there are short sellers, and it's not about manipulation, rather it's about managing risk as a professional investor. I manage a portfolio with roughly 50 publicly traded companies in it. I don't hold TSLA right now, but I have in the past. On any one, if I think that market conditions might go in the wrong direction, I'll short it, or I'll buy Put options. It's all about managing risk. I'm not trying to hurt that company, I'm simply trying to avoid a loss and have it being me who gets hurt.

Do you follow any stocks other than TSLA? If so, you know that often abrupt movement (up or down) can occur because of the same perfectly normal conditions that have been around for the 40 years I've been trading. An electronics company goes up against a new competitor and their stock goes down. They then announce better than expected quarterly results and the price goes up. Back in 2006 I made a ton of money on Garmin and Microsoft as their stock prices gyrated up and down. I'd buy on bad news and sell on good. It had nothing to do with covert market manipulators, instead it had everything to do with how Wall Street reacts to news, given that their time horizon is this calendar quarter.

What impact are the trade negotiations with China having on a ton of companies, especially retailers and companies like Caterpillar?

Do you follow the effect of the price of oil's movement in reaction to what's going on in the Middle East and with OPEC whenever there's an announcement?

Forget the conspiracy theory and look at the fundamentals of any company that you want to talk about, and let that company's stock be priced based on it's performance, living up to the guidance that management has given, plain and simple.

PDQ, I continue to be befuddled by your multiple attempts to neutralize the message that I provide by disguising yourself as being just another long investor. You're not required to visit this forum, and I am not going to change my opinion unless evidence supports a change. Guess what? We figured the hedge funds were going to try to push TSLA below 227.50 but they would try for a push down to 225 last Friday if circumstances allowed (which wasn't possible) and TSLA closed at 227.45. Coincidence? I think not because similar games are taking place every week.

I do revise my views as evidence suggests. For example, months ago I attributed the manipulations to short-sellers in general, and @Sancho suggested I was wrong because the real manipulators were actually the hedge funds that sold expiring calls and figured it would be more profitable to manipulate TSLA than to delta-hedge. Guess what? I changed my opinion because when seen through the lens of what Sancho was saying, the evidence really supported that position. We see those 220 puts placed by the garden-variety shorts failing to come into the money week after week, but what we do see is heavy manipulations on Fridays and a close near the effective max pain number when typical market makers can benefit from a push lower and at a level more appropriate for hedge fund sellers of call options when the market-makers have nothing to gain from manipulations that Friday.

Call me delusional if you like, PDQ, but I see upward pressure on TSLA at the moment that is being tempered by macro movements and by manipulations to close at a number best meeting the needs of the hedge fund sellers of TSLA calls when Friday rolls around. I see consensus for analyst expectations for Tesla deliveries in Q3 around 92,000 but evidence that deliveries will be closer to 100,000. If you have a short position in TSLA, now might be a really good time to get out of it.

Thanks @willow_hiller and @Gwgan for your useful contributions.

 

[pdq]

Wish it were the case for TSLA. Consider that the most shorted companies are shorted about 1% of market cap but for Tesla it is 20%. They are in a class by themselves, unfortunately.

Gwgan:

As I currently don't have a position in TSLA, I don't monitor their short interest or Put/Call ratio, but given its inherent volatility, 20% could be right.

I accept that. If TSLA spikes up, those shorts are going to get their heads handed to them in a big way.

But, I attribute it to the price volatility TSLA has in the market along with changing company guidance, cash burn rate and the knowledge of how Wall Street, pension funds and other institutional investors hate volatility, versus attributing it to a conspiracy theory of people out to "get" TSLA by shorting/manipulating the stock. Remember -- shorting and buying Puts is all about managing risk by the big boys. This is pure "2 for a nickel" market activity that doesn't need more than a 1 paragraph, 3 sentence explanation, like this paragraph.

 

[pdq]

PDQ, I continue to be befuddled by your multiple attempts to neutralize the message that I provide by disguising yourself as being just another long investor. You're not required to visit this forum, and I am not going to change my opinion unless evidence supports a change. Guess what? We figured the hedge funds were going to try to push TSLA below 227.50 but they would try for a push down to 225 last Friday if circumstances allowed (which wasn't possible) and TSLA closed at 227.45. Coincidence? I think not because similar games are taking place every week.

I do revise my views as evidence suggests. For example, months ago I attributed the manipulations to short-sellers in general, and @Sancho suggested I was wrong because the real manipulators were actually the hedge funds that sold expiring calls and figured it would be more profitable to manipulate TSLA than to delta-hedge. Guess what? I changed my opinion because when seen through the lens of what Sancho was saying, the evidence really supported that position. We see those 220 puts placed by the garden-variety shorts failing to come into the money week after week, but what we do see is heavy manipulations on Fridays and a close near the effective max pain number when typical market makers can benefit from a push lower and at a level more appropriate for hedge fund sellers of call options when the market-makers have nothing to gain from manipulations that Friday.

Call me delusional if you like, PDQ, but I see upward pressure on TSLA at the moment that is being tempered by macro movements and by manipulations to close at a number best meeting the needs of the hedge fund sellers of TSLA calls when Friday rolls around. I see consensus for analyst expectations for Tesla deliveries in Q3 around 92,000 but evidence that deliveries will be closer to 100,000. If you have a short position in TSLA, now might be a really good time to get out of it.

Thanks @willow_hiller and @Gwgan for your useful contributions.

Papafox:

I respect your having your rightful opinion, but you present it as if certain entities are out to manipulate the price with the purpose of hurting TSLA. If you have the same trading experience that I do, you know that shorting and buying Puts has been a bread and butter risk management strategy for decades, involving thousands of publicly trading companies. It's all about managing risk, plain and simple, versus trying to stick to a certain company.

Buying to cover expiring options? Again, that's a "2 for a nickel" standard practice -- minimize the loss. I trade options pretty actively, and if I have a trade go against me, I'll buy or sell to cover, versus getting exercised.

Oh, and I'm not disguising myself as another long investor. As mentioned in my original post, I currently don't hold a position, but I have traded it in the past, but I've been out of it for well over a year now.

 

[Papafox]

Today was a great opportunity to see what TSLA would do for the second trading day in a row of a mostly macro-neutral environment. On Friday, TSLA lost about $2 due to end of week manipulations. Today, TSLA gained $4 with no substantial news. Hmm. Overall, TSLA followed the trends of the NASDAQ (higher in the morning, lowest in mid-afternoon, recovery after 3pm) but TSLA clearly had an overall upward push to it today compared to the NASDAQ and tech stocks I follow. Notice how we saw two mandatory morning dip pushdowns (9:40am and 9:50am) that failed quickly. They were followed by enthusiastic buying, which is common after a pushdown attempt fails.

At 4:49pm there was a 24K pre-arranged sale at the same price as closing price, which might possibly have been a day-short-seller covering at end of day.

In news today, VW unveiled their EU compliance car, the ID.3, which will probably sell pretty well in European countries where small hatchbacks are popular. The car will not be sold in the U.S., presumably because reducing VW's European emissions liabilities is likely the primary purpose of the vehicle. It'll outsell other low-range vehicles for people looking for daily-commuter EVs, but Teslas remain in a different class as a do-all EV.

Macros traded mostly neutral today with Dow up and NASDAQ down. The NASDAQ closed down 0.19% today

What might the hedge funds have in mind for TSLA this week? Notice how few options, both puts and calls, we see so far this week for Friday expirations. With the hedge funds and market makers hitting the max pain point so closely in recent weeks, betting on weekly puts or calls has been a losing proposition and perhaps options traders are getting tired of losing money on these short-term bets. A strike price of 225 right now is a clear max pain point, let's see how it changes as the week progresses. Clearly, the hedge funds would prefer to see TSLA below 230 on Friday and certainly below 235 and 240. It's all a matter of what is possible with this week's combination of news, FUD, and macro forces.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the 50 day moving average has been resilient despite the past month's dip and now the stock price is approaching it (50 DMA currently at 232.85). Expect some resistance climbing above the number as you-know-who doesn't want longs to get excited with a positive development of this nature. Nonetheless, as we get closer to month's end and the estimates for Q3 deliveries begin to climb, the upward force on TSLA stock will intensify.

Conditions:
* Dow up 38 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ down 16 (0.19%)
* TSLA 231.79, up 4.34 (1.91%)
* TSLA volume 4.6M shares
* Oil 57.98
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 30.5%