Model 3 production is up over q4 but just a little, remains to be seen if that's because of the of shifts to and from EU and China as well as the Standard Range Plus ramp, or they are just ramping slowly at this point.
Model X should be a bit weak but relatively OK.
Model S should be very weak and it's mostly Tesla's doing. Main reason is Model 3 cannibalizing it. Then you got Tesla streamlining S&X to death, few options, much higher starting price. Their leases are not very reasonable, over 3 years the total payments amount to some 60% of the value of the car. Tax credit phase out also pulled orders into Q4. Many are delaying purchase and waiting for an update, at least faster charging. In the used car market there are a lot more Model S than before, even 5 years ago prod was quite substantial.
Model 3 should have some high end inventory in the US and China but that doesn't mean weak demand overall. With Model 3, production is too low to catch up with demand anytime soon. They are still catching up on SR+ N America orders, then they need to make SR and expand both globally. Global demand for Long Range and above is likely some 40k units per quarter already and it can increase with more cars on the road, leases, FSD - in FSD Tesla has a many thousands of dollars cost advantage over folks that will use LIDAR and Nvidia or Intel. SR and SR+ demand would be much higher than LR and above demand. And for now, production is way lower than organic demand while they still need to catch up with reservations.
Model S would be nice if they get range up to 400 miles, that would imply a 20% gain over the current 335 miles but remains to be seen if they can add more cells and gain some efficiency while improving cooling. Main priority would be to catch up with Model 3 in charging rates. And ofc everybody expects a new interior. Starting price back down to around 75k would be nice too. Wouldn't push sales to 15k units per quarter sustained as Model 3 still cannibalizes it but would help a lot.
From a financial point of view, S&X Q1 sales do hurt quite a bit.