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Recent MYP Delivery Estimates
- Thread starter Tdriver
- Start date
Out of all the orders I've seen, yours is the first that has gone from Order to departing the factory in a few days. That's why we're so skeptical but good for you. You missed out on the best part; playing the EDD game.
Definitely lucky, I’ll update if something happens along the way
I think people are dropping out left and right because of the tax credit on January 1st. I only had to wait 16 days from brand new order to VIN being assigned. My delivery date was estimated mid Sep to mid Oct. Same day a few other people here reported getting a VIN even though they only ordered a few days before. I'm not surprised at all that one was assigned the next day. I honestly think we'll see inventory cars between now and January. Unless you have a big value trade that you think is going to drop $5,000 to $7,000 in the next four months, why on Earth would you accept the car now?
His VIN is a bit high, but that makes sense if it's just leaving the factory. Tesla is producing about 21,000 3/Y every week and if mine was assigned a week ago and was already at a Sales Center that likely means about 7 days or more since it left the factory. My VIN is 510xxx. Lets say China is producing 50% of those cars, that's ~10k a week domestically and I would guess they're somewhere like 60% or more Model Y. That's maybe 1,500 a day, that VIN range totally adds up.
I think Tesla is going to have a serious issue with this tax bill. If they have 50,000+ cars sitting between now and January 1st that's $3 billion in sales (assuming average price of $60k) that will be on hold. I wouldn't even be surprised if we saw some rules being added like if you delay or cancel an order you can't re-order for 6 months or something. Or significant price hikes now ($4,500 or more) and then "surprise surprise" some price drops come January, thank god that inflation reduction bill "reduced inflation."
His VIN is a bit high, but that makes sense if it's just leaving the factory. Tesla is producing about 21,000 3/Y every week and if mine was assigned a week ago and was already at a Sales Center that likely means about 7 days or more since it left the factory. My VIN is 510xxx. Lets say China is producing 50% of those cars, that's ~10k a week domestically and I would guess they're somewhere like 60% or more Model Y. That's maybe 1,500 a day, that VIN range totally adds up.
I think Tesla is going to have a serious issue with this tax bill. If they have 50,000+ cars sitting between now and January 1st that's $3 billion in sales (assuming average price of $60k) that will be on hold. I wouldn't even be surprised if we saw some rules being added like if you delay or cancel an order you can't re-order for 6 months or something. Or significant price hikes now ($4,500 or more) and then "surprise surprise" some price drops come January, thank god that inflation reduction bill "reduced inflation."
I got the trade in text. Did it. Got pushed till oct/Nov. still says that 3 days later. Boo
OK if thats the case why are some people still waiting 4-5 months. Seems like if they have a surplus of cars for cancellations they would take care of people waiting longer first. This is just Tesla being tesla and not really caring about their customersI think people are dropping out left and right because of the tax credit on January 1st. I only had to wait 16 days from brand new order to VIN being assigned. My delivery date was estimated mid Sep to mid Oct. Same day a few other people here reported getting a VIN even though they only ordered a few days before. I'm not surprised at all that one was assigned the next day. I honestly think we'll see inventory cars between now and January. Unless you have a big value trade that you think is going to drop $5,000 to $7,000 in the next four months, why on Earth would you accept the car now?
His VIN is a bit high, but that makes sense if it's just leaving the factory. Tesla is producing about 21,000 3/Y every week and if mine was assigned a week ago and was already at a Sales Center that likely means about 7 days or more since it left the factory. My VIN is 510xxx. Lets say China is producing 50% of those cars, that's ~10k a week domestically and I would guess they're somewhere like 60% or more Model Y. That's maybe 1,500 a day, that VIN range totally adds up.
I think Tesla is going to have a serious issue with this tax bill. If they have 50,000+ cars sitting between now and January 1st that's $3 billion in sales (assuming average price of $60k) that will be on hold. I wouldn't even be surprised if we saw some rules being added like if you delay or cancel an order you can't re-order for 6 months or something. Or significant price hikes now ($4,500 or more) and then "surprise surprise" some price drops come January, thank god that inflation reduction bill "reduced inflation."
I think we'll start to see that happen. I think the Performances are first since there was less demand already. Then I think we'll start to see LR delays start to disappear. There are also some logistics to it depending where in the USA you are and where the car is coming from, but I seriously think we'll start to clear that backlog in a major way in the next 30 to 60 days and possibly start to see 2 or 3 week waits by late November and even inventory vehicles depending on the color/config by December.
Edit: Your car is the "cheapest" Performance config, Tesla likes to push the highest priced vehicles as much as they can when it comes to production. But don't worry, once they start making a batch of White or MSM we'll probably see a lot of people start to match all of a sudden. Also, it's not exactly great having it dropped on you either. I got notified Wed that I was matched to a VIN and Tesla didn't even get the trade quote to me until Friday afternoon. They told me I need to be ready to take delivery by this coming Tue. That gives me a weekend and two days to get my loan funded and my credit union isn't open on the weekends. You have to SCRAMBLE when Tesla does crap like this. Trade quotes are only good for 30 days, so if I miss this vehicle and for some reason it takes more than 30 days now for another to come up, too bad, I take whatever the new trade value is or walk away...
I’m guessing the majority of people buying teslas won’t meet the requirements for the tax incentive. I’m also skeptical that Tesla won’t put some new policy in place to prevent people pushing its orders and then just raise prices again. Trade in prices are going down with interest rates rising. Long story short, not sure in the end waiting for the tax incentive will advantage too many people.I think people are dropping out left and right because of the tax credit on January 1st. I only had to wait 16 days from brand new order to VIN being assigned. My delivery date was estimated mid Sep to mid Oct. Same day a few other people here reported getting a VIN even though they only ordered a few days before. I'm not surprised at all that one was assigned the next day. I honestly think we'll see inventory cars between now and January. Unless you have a big value trade that you think is going to drop $5,000 to $7,000 in the next four months, why on Earth would you accept the car now?
His VIN is a bit high, but that makes sense if it's just leaving the factory. Tesla is producing about 21,000 3/Y every week and if mine was assigned a week ago and was already at a Sales Center that likely means about 7 days or more since it left the factory. My VIN is 510xxx. Lets say China is producing 50% of those cars, that's ~10k a week domestically and I would guess they're somewhere like 60% or more Model Y. That's maybe 1,500 a day, that VIN range totally adds up.
I think Tesla is going to have a serious issue with this tax bill. If they have 50,000+ cars sitting between now and January 1st that's $3 billion in sales (assuming average price of $60k) that will be on hold. I wouldn't even be surprised if we saw some rules being added like if you delay or cancel an order you can't re-order for 6 months or something. Or significant price hikes now ($4,500 or more) and then "surprise surprise" some price drops come January, thank god that inflation reduction bill "reduced inflation."
If you look back this year, there were always random people getting cars in an unusually fast amount of time. Usually they seem to live in California, Washington, Texas etc. But if you look now at the recent July Orders most still have EDD's that match what they have been the past 6 months. 60-90 days which if the past repeats itself they will end of being 90-120 days. The only thing that may help that is if Austin can contribute more, which they are. So things Might get better But I wouldn't expect it to change too significantly unless the economy collapses.
I sure did, but I also got a trade quote of $70,200 on a 21 month old Model Y LR that I paid just under $64k brand new for... so do I gamble that used car prices will remain insane for the next four months, or do I jump on it now?
(And yes, there will be some people like me. But I think anyone trading a car in that's 5 years old or more probably will gamble on the used car prices since I doubt they'll drop more than maybe 10% or so in the next few months, if you're getting $30k for your trade, even a $3k less offer is worth it for $7500 in tax credits. For me that would be a wash)
Thats the thing that will keep people ordering. They want a Tesla and everyone will Justify it with a loss of trade value no mater how much and unknown rising interest rates. Now the lower gas prices get might hurt Tesla orders a bit.
$150k for individuals, $225k for head of household, and $300k for joint returns are still some fairly generous income limits. I could see plenty of people making $100k to $150k picking up a $65k to $70k Tesla, especially if they're trading in a few year old BMW or Benz that's worth $20k to $30k. And if you're a family, $300k is way up there for a $65k vehicle...
It will be interesting to watch. For me the real test is people in the midwest and east coast. When they start getting cars in under 2 months on average things have definitely changed.
I also sold my $40k MYSR for $58k after driving it for a year and placed an order for a MYP. I sold it before the tax credit was announced but I already made my profit so I don't feel bad on taking delivery now and missing the tax credit.
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