The same exact scenario happened to me. I wonder if they are just going to increment it by 1 every day)
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Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room
- Thread starter Tiger
- Start date
studioloft
Gavin
studioloft
Gavin
Makes me wonder if Tesla just gave us these estimated, but ephemeral, delivery dates to shut us up for now. We were really getting some momentum going.
I called my local delivery center and they simply just scheduled a delivery date for me. I didn't wait for them to call me. Is this what I'm supposed to do?
Stro
Unhappy MX Owner
This is my belief, which could be completely wrong and most likely is, but figured I'd tell it to see what others believe:
Tesla has had their system 'predict' when you'd get your new vehicle by giving you a range. A lot of you are seeing it now. they've been doing this for a long time. As a matter of fact, they still do for all models except the X, until yesterday that is. My company works with manufacturers doing data science such as Scheduling AI, Robotics, Forecasting, etc. If you try to do ANY kind of forecasting during this pandemic, it's super hard. Most of the time, you'll be lucky to be even remotely close as the data is trash due to supply chain issues. So my guess is that due to the supply chain issues hitting the X immensely plus QA issues, they turned off the predictive EDD by overriding it in the code. You can clearly see this if you look at the source code if you still have March. This is why we kept seeing a +1 month every month for the past X months.
Here is my crazy guess. Someone f'ed up and pushed a new update to the code to undo the override for a lot of folks. This is why so many can see an EDD range without a VIN. The system sees a lot of vehicles marked as complete and it's trying to let some peeps know that one is coming. Now, I hope I'm wrong and a lot of you get your vehicles, but that's the only logical explanation running through my head that doesn't throw Tesla under the bus. They can't seriously f this up THAT bad, can they?
If someone here is a graphics designer, I'd love to see a beautiful meme that says, The Tesla Way, created. I want this to be part of my signature.
Tesla has had their system 'predict' when you'd get your new vehicle by giving you a range. A lot of you are seeing it now. they've been doing this for a long time. As a matter of fact, they still do for all models except the X, until yesterday that is. My company works with manufacturers doing data science such as Scheduling AI, Robotics, Forecasting, etc. If you try to do ANY kind of forecasting during this pandemic, it's super hard. Most of the time, you'll be lucky to be even remotely close as the data is trash due to supply chain issues. So my guess is that due to the supply chain issues hitting the X immensely plus QA issues, they turned off the predictive EDD by overriding it in the code. You can clearly see this if you look at the source code if you still have March. This is why we kept seeing a +1 month every month for the past X months.
Here is my crazy guess. Someone f'ed up and pushed a new update to the code to undo the override for a lot of folks. This is why so many can see an EDD range without a VIN. The system sees a lot of vehicles marked as complete and it's trying to let some peeps know that one is coming. Now, I hope I'm wrong and a lot of you get your vehicles, but that's the only logical explanation running through my head that doesn't throw Tesla under the bus. They can't seriously f this up THAT bad, can they?
If someone here is a graphics designer, I'd love to see a beautiful meme that says, The Tesla Way, created. I want this to be part of my signature.
I called the local service center and they simply scheduled a delivery date for me. I didn't wait for them to call me or text me. I wonder if that's the right thing to do?
I really dislike written communication. To be really clear, I wasn't upset with you or your circumstances at all. My favorite saying is that life isn't fair. Not a negative statement at all. Each one of us probably have had unfair things that went our way big time. (We are all waiting for $100K+ cars)
When life hands you an unfair gift, you are crazy to not take it. (Assuming of course that it isn't a lemon and/or that you don't end up having to eat ramen noodles for the next year to swing it...)
In any event, welcome to the forum. I hope whatever happens to you ends up working out for you!!!
studioloft
Gavin
The only other thing I can think of is that they are expecting parts by a certain date.
My assumption is that there is absolutely 0 issue with producing the MX on the production line but they stopped making bodies because there is no physical space to put them while they wait for a particular part. If this part comes in slowly that would explain why we see such a small quantity of deliveries and movement on the test track.
I wonder even those Xs are moving. It seems they are stuck. If they have so many in the lot, why not provide VIN's and start delivering those. Maybe they want them to be delivered to new orders based on price increase(Typical Tesla)
Hmmmm.... A 2021 vin? That seems strange...
Okay, I am the world's worst at visual puzzles and seeing details. But as I look at these it appears that when I look at a specific car, then look at the next picture it is a different color. Are these the same cars getting shuffled? Are they new and different cars? Am I crazy? (Please don't answer the third question...)I wonder even those Xs are moving. It seems they are stuck. If they have so many in the lot, why not provide VIN's and start delivering those. Maybe they want them to be delivered to new orders based on price increase(Typical Tesla)
lauraut
LR/6 seat/MSM/Cream/VIN 5YJXCBE56MF3268xx
Tesla gave me a Model S last week as a loaner for a few days while my new refresh Model X was in the shop to resolve fit and finish issues. The Model S was hard to get out of I found. It's a great car but for that I would pass on the S.
@abel2003 I had to dig around to find this "old" post. Is it possible to look into the current shipping picture? Maybe help all of make sense of what we are seeing?
That's a good question. I know nothing about logistics, but I suspect that the EDD later in the process may mean one step further along the line in logistics. Early EDD is literally a placeholder, but I think TBD is a slightly more "mature" step in the logistics process: Figure out how much material to order based on reservations-> build budget and acquire materials -> refine manufacturing process during early builds -> nail down processes -> ramp up building cars -> build close to the number you want (maybe less?) -> With enough built to justify shipping costs, start to look at existing orders and start allocating based on shipping trucks available vs. geography -> match car to a person=VIN?
I would guess that TBD means your geography may be getting a shipment soon. Maybe somewhere a little further down the line, an actual car is matched with an actual customer. I think I read that a VIN is generated as soon as a car is built. Maybe that's true, but is it possible that you don't get a VIN until a specific car is designated as a match to your order (ie, they assign you the car)?
lol just did the same. The vehicle is scheduled to arrive tommorrow in Colma, CA.
peter21581
Faberge egg of cars
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