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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Russia seems to be paranoid about a Ukrainian amphibious operation. They spent a lot of money and put a lot of effort into building beach fortifications in Crimea too.

Logistically, an amphibious operation was never in the cards for Ukraine. NATO allies have provided some amphibious craft, but only enough to conduct raids on Russian held territory in Kherson oblast. Ukraine does not have the amphibious craft to conduct a full blown amphibious assault.

Ukraine has been harassing the Russians in Kherson oblast and they may have been playing on Russian paranoia about amphibious operations to make them think that was a vector for the assault, but I'm 99% sure there was no plan for a large scale offensive from that direction unless the Russians completely pulled out of the region leaving the river free to build a pontoon bridge capable of getting heavy equipment across.

When making a river assault, the troops crossing the river are vulnerable as long as they are in the water. Crossing a narrow river is more doable with enough supporting fire to keep the enemy down until the first wave can get across and establish a beach head, but the wider the body of water, the more support fire you need. The US relied on battleships to support naval landings in WW II. Literally nobody has those types of guns anymore.

There are realistically only three places where the core offensive can come from, in the south west south of Zaporizhzhia, a bit further east in the south towards Mariupol or in the Donbas, most likely the north so they can move down the ridgelines.

Once the Dnipro flooding resides, the Dnipro will be at lower levels than before the breach and Ukraine would be faced with a more standard river crossing attack than crossing a large, wide river. Russia basically opened up the southern front to more vectors for attack, though they won't be open for a few weeks.

There are stories of Russian troops being swept away by the flood waters. Russia pretty much destroyed all their defenses on the left bank
Putin’s troops ‘swept away’ in flooding after dam destroyed, Ukraine says
The linked news feed had this, immediately preceding the linked story:

IMG_1317.jpeg
 
If anything, this will make it **easier** for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro because it eliminated Russian fortifications and ammunition dumps along the east bank. Ukraine can be ready to attack well before Russia can re-establish those defenses across that broad front. It'll be about 2 weeks before they can move, but it would probably have taken them 2 weeks to breach Russian defenses one boat at a time.
Also at least one of the Ukraine YouTubers has said draining the river upstream of the dam now makes a longer section narrower and easier to cross.
 
All day today we have had very serious smoke pollution, serious enough to the point they have advised people to stay indoors. I'm in Northeastern Pennsylvania. The wild fires creating the smoke are in Canada, about 900km North of us. We may get some relief tomorrow when the weather pattern changes and the smoke actually goes south of us.
Impact from the smoke is nasty in the Carolina’s and go down over a 1000 miles to the Gulf of Mexico. Nasty.
 

Russian losses soaring. Russia is committing tanks now, or Ukrainian defenses have punched through far enough past the 1st line to find tanks in static condition. Also reports of failed counterattacks by Russia on the Bahkmut flanks. Washingtonpost saying something about Ukraine having punched 10km. I'm skeptical that anyone knows anything for sure yet but it sure does appear that the probing attacks are proceeding and continuing.

Until recently counter battery fire was rare in this war, but Ukraine is now getting good at it. I saw somewhere that Russian artillery is getting very cautious about firing on anything because Ukrainian counter battery fire has gotten so good it's an almost guaranteed kill on any Russian artillery that fires. That's probably why Russian artillery losses have spiked in the last few weeks.

What probably isn't counted in these figures are the artillery pieces that are now underwater in the Kherson area. Small caliber artillery uses a shell with combined propellant and shell, but larger caliber artillery like 152mm uses separate shells and powder bags because the shells weigh a lot. Even if the shells can be rescued and dried out, the powder bags are probably ruined.

The guns being submerged in water probably doesn't help either. If everything was properly lubricated then the mechanisms would probably be OK, but water will get in everywhere it can and will start corrosion. What are the chances Russian gun crews have been doing proper maintenance on their guns?

At minimum the submerged artillery is going to be out of action for a few weeks.
 
What Southern Ukraine is currently facing over the next few years until the dam is replaced
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

The Russians are making a lot of noise about something going on in the Zaporizhzia region

It might be another feint or it may be the start of the offensive. Of course the Russians are claiming they smashed all Ukrainian units, probably destroying thousands of HIMARS in Leopards in the process.

Russian artillery losses continue to be on the high side
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023...s-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-08-06-2023/
 

So Sweden sent the up armored CV90s, 40mm autocannons. A 40mm autocannon is going to do incredible damage to anything not a recent MBT and from the rear it would likely take out almost anything other than the Abrams, Challenger, and Leopard A2-6.

Effective is one word for it. The training has finished and they are likely now in Ukraine. In my opinion these and the bradleys are the most significant armored contribution made to date.
 
Also a note on riverine flooding. These systems are flood systems, ecologically the floodplains can deal with the huge amounts of water fairly quickly. The summary by Chriso that Wdolson posted highlights the real issue - irrigation canals that helped make the arid region productive. Also to note, drought begets drought. As soils dry the local micro-climate will actually change and everything will become drier yet.