I suppose that's one approach. My feeling is sunlight is the best disinfectant. Better to acknowledge the sickness than to allow it to fester.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I suppose that's one approach. My feeling is sunlight is the best disinfectant. Better to acknowledge the sickness than to allow it to fester.
petit_bateau
Active Member
This video
is well summarised by a PPRUNE contributor as follows (and it is indeed plausible)
A rather interesting (non governmental) russian voice on what happened to the Kakhovka dam since Nov 2022 (linked and recommended by Ukrainian Ian Matveev) and what may have happened during the night of June 5/6:
Basically it says ...
1) There's proof (satellite images) that the outflow of the dam was not regulated by the Russians since mid-Nov 2022 (when they [the Russians] damaged the dam by a huge explosion)
2) The dam started to disintegrate on June 2 (probably as a result of record high water levels combined with criminal negligence by the Russians), with damage increasing on June 5
In addidtion, it's
3) showing night-time IR footage (night june 5/6, 02:46 AM) which indicates a large failure of the dam, but turbine building still intact (see 13:10 in the video linked before)
4) and the hypothesis that detonations heard actually were mines laid previously and detonating now as a result of being swept away and colliding with the collapsing dam
Hopefully everyone here now is aware that the nighttime explosion videos linked everywhere are not from June 5/6 2023, but from Nov 2022 (when Russian retreated from the right bank and blew up the road above the dam).
Related, here is an expert take on it
www.newcivilengineer.com
another opinion
simplicius76.substack.com
This suggests the legal changes were done by Russia because a campaign of dam breaches was intended (even if the NK one perhaps got ahead of them)
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Other snippets
threadreaderapp.com
threadreaderapp.com
www.theguardian.com
by the way this one should give the CT folks food for thought when they consider how big tyres have to be for swimming service
The road to Tokmak which we have all long since commented on ........... goes through Robotdyne junction only 15km away .......
https://twitter.com/rsrobert78/status/1666780621023182849
https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1666774088482791424
and the [Russian appointed] occupation governor has announced a forced covilian evacuation from the Tokmak area
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1666776992459390977
===========
a couple of longer term items
wavellroom.com
wavellroom.com
is well summarised by a PPRUNE contributor as follows (and it is indeed plausible)
A rather interesting (non governmental) russian voice on what happened to the Kakhovka dam since Nov 2022 (linked and recommended by Ukrainian Ian Matveev) and what may have happened during the night of June 5/6:
Basically it says ...
1) There's proof (satellite images) that the outflow of the dam was not regulated by the Russians since mid-Nov 2022 (when they [the Russians] damaged the dam by a huge explosion)
2) The dam started to disintegrate on June 2 (probably as a result of record high water levels combined with criminal negligence by the Russians), with damage increasing on June 5
In addidtion, it's
3) showing night-time IR footage (night june 5/6, 02:46 AM) which indicates a large failure of the dam, but turbine building still intact (see 13:10 in the video linked before)
4) and the hypothesis that detonations heard actually were mines laid previously and detonating now as a result of being swept away and colliding with the collapsing dam
Hopefully everyone here now is aware that the nighttime explosion videos linked everywhere are not from June 5/6 2023, but from Nov 2022 (when Russian retreated from the right bank and blew up the road above the dam).
Related, here is an expert take on it
Industry specialists assess damage on Ukraine's breached Nova Kakhovka dam | New Civil Engineer
The 3.2km long, 30m high dam across the Dnipro River was breached on 6 June in an attack that Ukraine is calling a Russian terrorist attack, but which
www.newcivilengineer.com
another opinion
Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach
Now that almost a day has passed and the event has settled in, we can draw some conclusions or at least ask some informed questions about the whos and whys, the cui bonos. The biggest question on everyone’s mind is who was responsible for the Kakhovka dam, and as a corollary, who does it benefit...
simplicius76.substack.com
This suggests the legal changes were done by Russia because a campaign of dam breaches was intended (even if the NK one perhaps got ahead of them)
============
Other snippets
Thread by @TomGiuretis on Thread Reader App
@TomGiuretis: While the focus is rightly on the flooding downstream of the Kakhovka Dam, the long-term damage to Southern Ukraine's huge agricultural sector is particularly worrying. These farms and people rely on 4...…
threadreaderapp.com
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ This very good thread from @TomGiuretis highlights the vital role that the canals fed from the Dnipro play in the agriculture of southern Ukraine and Crimea. But I thought I'd add a historical persp...…
threadreaderapp.com
Nato members may send troops to Ukraine, warns former alliance chief
Security guarantees and membership path needed at Nato summit to avoid escalation, says Anders Rasmussen
www.theguardian.com
by the way this one should give the CT folks food for thought when they consider how big tyres have to be for swimming service
The road to Tokmak which we have all long since commented on ........... goes through Robotdyne junction only 15km away .......
https://twitter.com/rsrobert78/status/1666780621023182849
https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1666774088482791424
and the [Russian appointed] occupation governor has announced a forced covilian evacuation from the Tokmak area
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1666776992459390977
===========
a couple of longer term items
Operational Art Reborn - Part One
Searching for Operational Art? What happens when your tactical actions aren't aligned to your strategic aims?
wavellroom.com
Everything is going according to plan
It's all going according to the plan. But 'the plan' and the impact of sanctions have different a meaning in Russia. Read on.
wavellroom.com
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petit_bateau
Active Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I thought water level records showed an increase in water level leading up to the failure, which would suggest to me that the Russians were in fact regulating the outflow.
Edit: I see in another link there are claims the Ukrainians were releasing water from other dams upstream leading to the increased water levels.
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Have to feel that the Russians are totally responsible for the destruction of that Dam.
If they had not invaded Ukraine, that dam would still be functioning today.
If they had not invaded Ukraine, that dam would still be functioning today.
navguy12
Active Member
Understood. It was a screen shot of a thread I had already clicked on and didn’t want to include the link.
navguy12
Active Member
I didn’t watch the video either; I simply read the highlights of that video by the original poster and thought they would be of interest.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"Pressure builds on Biden to send long-range weapons to Ukraine
The House members want the administration to greenlight the Army Tactical Missile System for Kyiv.By LARA SELIGMAN and JOE GOULD
06/08/2023 05:17 AM EDT
[...] Now, a group of House members led by Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) is turning up the pressure. In a letter to Biden on Thursday, 10 Republican and Democratic lawmakers urged the president to quickly greenlight ATACMS.
“The war in Ukraine has become a conflict of grinding attrition. We can and must help break this stalemate. By swiftly providing the Ukrainian forces with these additional capabilities, we can significantly improve their chances of victory, restore peace to Europe, and ensure a more stable and prosperous world,” the lawmakers wrote. [..."
Pressure builds on Biden to send long-range weapons to Ukraine
The House members want the administration to greenlight the Army Tactical Missile System for Kyiv.
www.politico.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Also rain and snow melt etc given time of year
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It could be that they arrived along with other counter battery systems nobody has talked about.
My partner follows a guy on Twitter who goes by Angry White House Staffer or something like that. He started posting during the Trump administration. What he has revealed has proven itself with time. He's murky about what exactly he does, but he's some kind of civil servant.
In any case he has said that there are a lot of military aid going to Ukraine from the US and other allies that nobody is talking about publicly. Some does get revealed like the HARM missiles when they go into action, but others are still secret.
I thought of posting that. Trent Telenko and David Demorrow have been going on about the Abrams, but while both have worked with Abrams in the field, they have never been responsible for the logistics of keeping them going. Mark Hertling as a division commander on up to theater commander has managed the support chain for every system under his command and he knows the pain Ukraine is going to have fielding Abrams in the middle of a war. As he points out the other countries that have fielded the Abrams took years to stand them up and had General Dynamics in country full time helping them get everything set up.
The western allies didn't lose any skirmishes in the first Gulf War, but that was was like smashing an egg with a sledgehammer. The Iraqi army was completely outclassed.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I doubt that very much.
Even if such a skirmishes was never reported.
As good as Western forces were/are they are not perfect.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"Bipartisan group urges White House to give Ukraine F-16 jets
Jun 8, 2023CNN’s Brianna Keilar speaks to Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), who is part of a bipartisan group of lawmakers pressing President Joe Biden directly to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine."
Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4. Ukrainian officials signaled that Ukrainian
Now if anyone reads this...and considers...this is exactly what Ukraine did in Kherson. Just almost exactly. So the only question remaining is we are seeing lots of footwork, jab here, jab there....where is the first hard punch going to fall?
Also note to everyone...Russians here did not panic and run. The southern command actually has a clue, they have the entire war but they are simply hamstrung by higher command. They would have retreated across the Dnipro early on after the first HIMARS attacks but were prevented. The southern sector won't be an easy nut to crack.
Now...now I can think of some easier sectors....
Seems confirmed that the news posted by @SwedishAdvocate is correct, Ukraine lost their first Leopard 2a4. Remember you are going to see Leopard losses. Most of what is supplied to Ukraine is actually not latest and greatest, mines, RPG anti tank weapons, etc will all take them out in anything other than frontal armor or turrent. That's why they do probing attacks and clearly they are still learning to use armor.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Links that may be of interest
www.theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com
www.jordskjelv.no
threadreaderapp.com
www.politico.eu
Ukraine: cooling pond at Zaporizhzhia plant at risk after dam collapse – report
Nuclear safety organisation says loss of pool would not necessarily be catastrophic, but would dramatically increase safety concerns
www.theguardian.com
Ukrainian offensive is under way, says Putin – as it happened
Russian president says beginning of offensive ‘is evidenced by the use of strategic reserves’
www.theguardian.com
Zelenskiy steps up criticism of International Red Cross over inaction at Kakhovka dam
Ukrainian president’s remarks echo previous comments about international bodies’ failure to intervene more decisively
www.theguardian.com
Seismic signals recorded from an explosion at the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine - jordskjelv.no
NORSAR has analysed seismic signals from regional stations in connection with the collapse of the dam in Ukraine on Tuesday night.
www.jordskjelv.no
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The Kakhovka reservoir has reached 'dead pool' only two days after its dam was breached, and is no longer able to supply settlements or the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. It's expected to stabilise...…
threadreaderapp.com
Russia is getting better at evading Western sanctions on electronics, US official says
‘By the start of this year, Russia was able to reimport certain key categories of electronics at about pre-war levels,’ top sanctions official says.
www.politico.eu
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