Exquisite results!!
Though daily personnel losses used to average around 900 daily, today’s current annual rate is 171,550 personnel and 8,395 tanks and artillery each.
Looks like Ukraine’s gonna win.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
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Though daily personnel losses used to average around 900 daily, today’s current annual rate is 171,550 personnel and 8,395 tanks and artillery each.
Looks like Ukraine’s gonna win.
There will likely be quite a few more chapters in the book of this war, including nasty turns of events. Things are looking better today, but we don't know how this will evolve or end.
For the month of august about 690 artillery units destroyed according the Ukrainian MOD. Huge numbers, russia can't keep that up another year because the replacements are so much less capable. They are replacing SPH with old t62s. Just not equivalents. I mean use the old t62 if it is all you have (so I understand why they are doing so) but it is a bad option.
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Great news that Ukraine should be getting the first shipment of 10 Abrams by the end of this month as their crews have finished training in Germany. And the US ok'd the DU shells for transfer as well.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
@Mod: I'm assuming I'm allowed to post a news article from the BBC without any kind of commentary.
--> The BBC article is wrong however. They've been invited back to the price ceremony – not the banquet afterwards.
"
Ukraine war: Russia and Iran invited back to Nobel Prize
Published 1 day ago
Russia and Belarus have been invited back to Stockholm's Nobel Prize banquet after being left out last year because of the Ukraine war, the Nobel Foundation says.
Iran has also been invited back to the event in Sweden's capital after not being allowed to attend last year. [...]
[Speaking to Swedish public radio (My edit.)] Swedish [...] [Member of the European Parliament (My edit.)] Karin Karlsbro accused the Foundation of setting a "dangerous precedent" by "giving a green light to inviting Russia to a glamorous party while missiles fall over Ukrainian cultural centres and murder children." [...
"
www.bbc.com
--> The BBC article is wrong however. They've been invited back to the price ceremony – not the banquet afterwards.
"
Ukraine war: Russia and Iran invited back to Nobel Prize banquet [price ceremony(My edit.)]
Published 1 day agoRussia and Belarus have been invited back to Stockholm's Nobel Prize banquet after being left out last year because of the Ukraine war, the Nobel Foundation says.
Iran has also been invited back to the event in Sweden's capital after not being allowed to attend last year. [...]
[Speaking to Swedish public radio (My edit.)] Swedish [...] [Member of the European Parliament (My edit.)] Karin Karlsbro accused the Foundation of setting a "dangerous precedent" by "giving a green light to inviting Russia to a glamorous party while missiles fall over Ukrainian cultural centres and murder children." [...
"
Ukraine war: Russia and Iran invited back to Nobel Prize banquet
The Nobel Foundation says it advocates dialogue but a critic suggests it is being "incredibly naive".
www.bbc.com
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I recall the Russians stripped the garrison there last year. Most of the equipment in the Kuril defenses is ancient. The Russians had a number of old tanks permanently dug in as fortifications.
If they are stripping the equipment now, there isn't going to be much left in the Kuril islands.
If Russia ends up having a civil war a number of countries who had territory taken by Russia in the last century or two might take an opportunity to get their land back.
Russia has been losing around 600 guns a month since mid-May. That's in the ballpark of 2000 guns in a little over 3 months.
Russia started the war with somewhere around 5000 mortars, 8200 towed guns, and about 6000 SP artillery. The Ukrainian figures don't include mortars as far as I know. Those are usually considered small arms.
Rather than repair or scrap guns worn out in the Chechen wars, Russia just put the worn out guns into reserve. So we know that some of the reserve was unusable when the war started. Ukraine reports guns that the Ukrainians took out in combat. Russia has certainly worn out a lot of their guns. Especially last year when they were firing them almost non-stop for a couple of months.
The average barrel life for a howitzer is 1500-2500 rounds. At it's peak Russia was firing 60,000 rounds a day. If 3000 guns were active at that time, that's 20 rounds a day per gun. That would wear out a gun barrel in about 100 days. Very few Russian guns had new barrels at the beginning of the war. Since Russia had only made about 20 artillery pieces in the last decade, and their barrel production was essentially zilch, probably none of their guns started the war with new barrels.
We have also seen a lot more towed artillery in action with the Russians. Virtually all their towed artillery was in reserve at the start of the war.
The numbers are out for today, another 30 guns lost
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023...s-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-02-09-2023/
Total 5560 lost in combat. They could have lost an equal number to wear and tear and 1000-2000 were unusable due to wear from the Chechen wars at the start of the war. They may be down to 2000 usable guns.
They have been buying 60mm mortars and ammunition from Iran and using the ancient tanks as ersatz artillery. They are probably using the old tanks for the dual reason they have ammunition in storage for them combined with the fact they are running out of howitzers. Tanks are not a great artillery platform, the guns don't elevate as high as purpose built artillery, and the barrels fire with more pressure because they are intended to be used for firing direct fire AT rounds. Because of the increased pressure, the barrels on tank guns wear out faster than howitzers.
I saw something a month or two back that the Ukrainians were on parity with the Russians for artillery fire at that time and they would probably be firing more rounds per day than the Russians soon at the rate of decline of Russian artillery.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Advances by Ukraine in two thrusts. Spaced sufficiently far apart that Russia has to choose which to reinforce; but sufficiently close together that they can support each other as Ukraine advances. Which means Russia has to make difficult choices under pressure. I've pasted these two maps together and adjusted things so they are at the same scale. See link below for details of latest advance on the eastern (Urozhaine) axis towards Staromlynivka.
and
and here are 80km range circles on those two thrusts
and
and here are 80km range circles on those two thrusts
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
@Mod: I'm assuming I'm allowed to post a news article from the BBC without any kind of commentary.
--> The BBC article is wrong however. They've been invited back to the price ceremony – not the banquet afterwards.
"
Ukraine war: Russia and Iran invited back to Nobel Prize
Published 1 day agobanquet[price ceremony(My edit.)]
Russia and Belarus have been invited back to Stockholm's Nobel Prize banquet after being left out last year because of the Ukraine war, the Nobel Foundation says.
Iran has also been invited back to the event in Sweden's capital after not being allowed to attend last year. [...]
[Speaking to Swedish public radio (My edit.)] Swedish [...] [Member of the European Parliament (My edit.)] Karin Karlsbro accused the Foundation of setting a "dangerous precedent" by "giving a green light to inviting Russia to a glamorous party while missiles fall over Ukrainian cultural centres and murder children." [...
"
Ukraine war: Russia and Iran invited back to Nobel Prize banquet
The Nobel Foundation says it advocates dialogue but a critic suggests it is being "incredibly naive".
A reversal.
"
Nobel Foundation reverses decision to invite Russia to prize ceremony following backlash
By Eve Brennan and Sophie Tanno, CNNPublished 8:01 AM EDT, Sat September 2, 2023
(CNN) – The Nobel Foundation has U-turned on a controversial decision to invite the ambassadors of Russia, Belarus and Iran to the Nobel Prize award ceremony after facing widespread criticism.
The foundation announced in a press release Saturday that ambassadors from the three countries would not be invited, after initially saying that it wanted to involve even those who did not share the values of the Nobel Prize.
Ukraine had condemned the decision to invite the Russian and Belarusian ambassadors, who had been left out of Stockholm’s Nobel Prize awards ceremony last year because of the war in Ukraine. A Swedish member of the European Parliament called the decision “extremely inappropriate.” [...
"
they UC will need to create a large swath of land between both areas of the land bridge that is cut off, in order to feed/flood it with material, personnel, weaponry to defend the slice taken out of the land bridge throughout the winter. That and a few well targeted strikes to the bridge south of the Sea of Azov and Crimea will be West Berlin throughout the winter.
God I wish they had some planes, overwatch and JDAMS.
BitJam
Active Member
A break from the mainstream doom and gloom.
Ukraine's Counter Offensive Pushes Forward Village by Village
(As Ukraine pushes slowly forward in its counteroffensive, it’s relying heavily on the effort of hundreds of small-scale assault groups, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house.)
www.nytimes.com
[may be paywalled]
Ukraine's Counter Offensive Pushes Forward Village by Village
(As Ukraine pushes slowly forward in its counteroffensive, it’s relying heavily on the effort of hundreds of small-scale assault groups, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house.)
A Brutal Path Forward, Village by Village
As Ukraine pushes slowly forward in its counteroffensive, it’s relying heavily on the effort of hundreds of small-scale assault groups, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house.
[...] The monthslong campaign to breach heavily fortified Russian lines is being conducted in many domains and in many forms of battle, with artillery duels and drone strikes across the breadth of the front in southern Ukraine. But the engine driving the effort are hundreds of small-scale assault groups, often just eight to 10 soldiers, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house.
[...] Daily success is measured in yards rather than miles. But dozens of these assaults have been raging daily for weeks and, taken together, they are adding up to gains that Ukraine says will pose increasing problems for overstretched Russian forces.
[...] In more than a dozen interviews in recent days, troops engaged in combat voiced great confidence that they can break the Russian lines. “After the first and the second lines there will be the straight way toward the sea, no more fortifications,” said Maksym, another veteran marine who fought in Urozhaine. “We will move like rockets.”
I have been enjoying seeing the two mutually supporting attacks develop (and had written the same without the excellent illustrations a week or two ago). As long as they continue in the current trajectory they'll both soon move at some velocity and that will potentially collapse a brittle defense.
Yesterday I read about a completely green new army being sent to Luhansk to relieve the vets there so they could be rotated (with no rest) back to the south where they originally had been posted until pulled off by the brilliant Gerasimov. Shoigu at his best.
In particular it is interesting to see the velocity increasing. Russian telegram channels are apparently posting that Ukrainians are quite a ways through the gap between Verbove and Novoproko????? (cant spell some of these without maps). Anyway, there is a ridge there with trench lines and if they have breached thous that would present an excellent way to flank both villages.
Retrospectively, the Ukrainian counteroffensive approach seems to have been the wisest.
Many hoped for a massive counteroffensive from the get-go. But it seems clear the approach of first softening Russian defensive positions with weeks of destruction of ammunition/fuel depots, air-defenses, artillery, tanks, command centers, air bases, supply lines, carefully mapping out ways through mine fields, etc., was the right approach. This saved many Ukrainian lives they will need for a long game scenario towards victory and continue to have sufficient manpower.
Many hoped for a massive counteroffensive from the get-go. But it seems clear the approach of first softening Russian defensive positions with weeks of destruction of ammunition/fuel depots, air-defenses, artillery, tanks, command centers, air bases, supply lines, carefully mapping out ways through mine fields, etc., was the right approach. This saved many Ukrainian lives they will need for a long game scenario towards victory and continue to have sufficient manpower.
petit_bateau
Active Member
^^^^
Exactly this
The chunk that they are aiming to take - in the success case - needs to be viable to support in logistics terms, and to defend in artillery terms, i.e. wide enough to have relatively safe space in the middle.
The Polohy road might be the logistics spine of what they are aiming for. That would be out of range for the remaining Russian artillery if the Ukraine forces are able to advance on the current thrusts, and then take the terrain in between.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Windows in high-rise buildings continue to be 'out of fashion'...
BitJam
Active Member
Ukraine Matters, live now. It starts with an inspiring Independence Day speech by Zelensky from a year ago.
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