Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Tiger]

The Russian government is becoming a three-ring circus. Can't make this stuff up

Russian Spies Hilariously Screw Up Putin’s ‘Assassination Plot’ Claim

YouTubeDuring a Monday meeting at Moscow’s Prosecutor General’s Office, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a shocking accusation, announcing the arrest of several accused assassins who were allegedly planning to kill prominent Russian state TV journalist and ardent Putin loyalist Vladimir...

www.yahoo.com

To me, it seems, they have also now publicly listed the names on the hitlist ... ?

 

[madodel]

The Russian government is becoming a three-ring circus. Can't make this stuff up

Russian Spies Hilariously Screw Up Putin’s ‘Assassination Plot’ Claim

YouTubeDuring a Monday meeting at Moscow’s Prosecutor General’s Office, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a shocking accusation, announcing the arrest of several accused assassins who were allegedly planning to kill prominent Russian state TV journalist and ardent Putin loyalist Vladimir...

www.yahoo.com

Sheer incompetence....

Inspector Clouseau is working for FSB these days
View attachment 797522

Why would the west assassinate any of these people? They are doing a fine job destroying Russia themselves. Reminds me of WWII when Churchill called off all attempts to assassinate Hitler after the Brits figured out Hitler was doing a deplorable job of directing military decisions and assets. And best of all insisting on sticking with decisions that had proven to be terribly bad ideas.

 

[nativewolf]

Germany finally did something..not much but something. Supplying 50 somewhat old self propelled anti aircraft systems. The radar could be helpful in scanning. Apparently they were paired with Stinger operators.

Flakpanzer Gepard - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jbcarioca]

USD reverts to 74.25 roubles...why is the dollar in the doghouse?

That quote is fictitious. It is often repeated in press because they don’t seem to verify ‘official’ data.

The ruble is mostly not transferable now, the posted rates are to buy rubles, not sell them, and virtually nobody is likely to voluntarily buy rubles. The nominal rate is the one intended for buyers of Russian oil and gas to use when transferring FX through Gazprombank. Nobody can actually buy US$ using Rubles today, except at eight or ten times the rate, but very rarely even then.

Bluntly these rates are used to make people think all is well. It deceives nobody who actually wants to or needs to make a transaction. The ubiquitous Russian multi-currency ATMs and FX shops have no FX to sell.

Just to repeat. There is NO open market legal purchase of rubles or sale of rubles. Ruble sales are artificial prices for unfriendly buyers of Russian oil and gas.

 

[RSpanner]

Serious as it is, this war in Ukraine might be a diversion for other actions around the world. Mr. Lavrov hints at threats of WW3, while the news has reports of Wagner Mercenaries in Mali, and Chinese expansion into the Pacific, as two recent examples. I'm wondering where else mercenaries (on both "sides") are being deployed. And the really big question is how many russian boomers are deployed, and I would suppose they are still being shadowed by western attack subs.
It seems to me that it is the Russians, with Chinese support, that are risking the next Big One. Too bad our media don't point this out on a regular basis.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Serious as it is, this war in Ukraine might be a diversion for other actions around the world. Mr. Lavrov hints at threats of WW3, while the news has reports of Wagner Mercenaries in Mali, and Chinese expansion into the Pacific, as two recent examples. I'm wondering where else mercenaries (on both "sides") are being deployed. And the really big question is how many russian boomers are deployed, and I would suppose they are still being shadowed by western attack subs.
It seems to me that it is the Russians, with Chinese support, that are risking the next Big One. Too bad our media don't point this out on a regular basis. [My underline.]

It is the Russians that are threatening with WW3.

On the other hand – they/Putler 'himself' have been making these threats since day one of this conflict...

Others will have to weigh in on the "Chinese support" in all of this...

 

[petit_bateau]

There are an abnormally large number of SSBNs at sea, from both the West and Russia. By delaying inbound patrols and accelerating outbound there is surge capacity in the system. Some statements were made a couple of months ago by the British and the French ( my memory , can't find url now) that they have both done this. Such a surge posture is difficult to naintain for very long as it has consequencez. I don't think the Russians are able to track Western boats reliably. The reverse is often not the case. The Chinese are not yet material in this event imho.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

There are an abnormally large number of SSBNs at sea, from both the West and Russia. By delaying inbound patrols and accelerating outbound there is surge capacity in the system. Some statements were made a couple of months ago by the British and the French ( my memory , can't find url now) that they have both done this. Such a surge posture is difficult to naintain for very long as it has consequencez. I don't think the Russians are able to track Western boats reliably. The reverse is often not the case. The Chinese are not yet material in this event imho. [My underline.]

Behind paywall. But it reports that France ad of March 23 this year "for the first time in three decades" has deployed four of their three SSBNs simultaneously...

France increases nuclear submarine presence in response to Russian threats

Three French nuclear missile submarines have been deployed at sea simultaneously for the first time in three decades as a response to Russian nuclear sabre-ratt

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Sandor]

Russia bullying the former satellites to stop armor and artillery transfers to Ukraine I guess

Ukraine war: Russia halts gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria

Moscow says 'unfriendly' countries must start paying for its gas in roubles.

www.bbc.com

Noticeable absent is Hungary. Wonder why ?

Of course Germany and Italy aren't there either. There must be some logic to Gazprom's decision... Inquiring minds want to know

Poland should be fine, they've prepared for this. Bulgaria may be in a tougher spot. They import almost all the natural gas (from Russia) that they use. There may be some elastic supply in Romania (net producer but not by a lot) and maybe Turkey can help somehow (they are in the same 90%+ import situation, but they may have other options given their access to the Mediterranean Sea).

 

[jbcarioca]

Russia bullying the former satellites to stop armor and artillery transfers to Ukraine I guess

Ukraine war: Russia halts gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria

Moscow says 'unfriendly' countries must start paying for its gas in roubles.

www.bbc.com

Noticeable absent is Hungary. Wonder why ?

Of course Germany and Italy aren't there either. There must be some logic to Gazprom's decision... Inquiring minds want to know

Poland should be fine, they've prepared for this. Bulgaria may be in a tougher spot. They import almost all their natural gas (from Russia) that they use. There may be some elastic supply in Romania (net producer but not by a lot) and maybe Turkey can help somehow (they are in the same 90%+ import situation, but they may have other options given their access to the Mediterranean Sea).

We can only hope that Germany, Italy et al have been preparing.

 

[bkp_duke]

We can only hope that Germany, Italy et al have been preparing.

Probably not. Germany is being completely stupid and still swears they are shutting down their nuclear power generation early . . . apparently America doesn't have a lock on "idiots in charge".

 

[nativewolf]

Probably not. Germany is being completely stupid and still swears they are shutting down their nuclear power generation early . . . apparently America doesn't have a lock on "idiots in charge".

In retrospect the schrader merkel team were devastatingly incompetent/corrupt as it regards to national security and social responsibilities and managing foreign relations. They killed solar, they tried to kill wind, they refused to pay for an adequate armed force, they didn't even wimper when russia started biting off sections of the Ukraine. God bless the poles and bulgarians and Finns and Swedes and even the English.

 

[Sandor]

Germany finally did something..not much but something. Supplying 50 somewhat old self propelled anti aircraft systems. The radar could be helpful in scanning. Apparently they were paired with Stinger operators.

Flakpanzer Gepard - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It lasted the best part of a day. Okay maybe 8 hours. Until the Swiss poo-pooed the idea.

Swiss veto German request to re-export tank ammunition to Ukraine

Neutral Switzerland has vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft tanks that Germany is sending to Ukraine, the government said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

They can have the tanks, but not the ammo. Maybe Ukraine can use them as monuments to the German-Swiss support.

BTW, not the first time that Swiss neutrality strikes in this war

Neutral Swiss rule out arms deliveries to Poland

Swiss neutrality rules out delivering weapons to Poland, Swiss President Ignazio Cassis said on Monday during a visit to Ukraine's neighbour.

www.reuters.com

Of course there are limits to neutrality. See the last country on the list of main buyers of Swiss war material in 2021

 

[Sandor]

On an unrelated news, Ukraine decided to start addressing the PMR (Transnistria) problem. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs' spokesman said earlier

"Ukraine strongly supports Moldova's territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. We condemn attempts to involve Moldovan Transnistria in Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. We call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions."

Ukraine condemns Russiaâs attempts to drag Transnistria into the war

ALENA MAZURENKO — TUESDAY, 26 APRIL 2022, 17:52

www.pravda.com.ua

I guess it's a lesson learnt from Benjamin Franklin: "We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately." In 1992, Ukrainian "volunteers" fought on the Russian side against Moldova in the Transnistrian war...

 

[MC3OZ]

Serious as it is, this war in Ukraine might be a diversion for other actions around the world. Mr. Lavrov hints at threats of WW3, while the news has reports of Wagner Mercenaries in Mali, and Chinese expansion into the Pacific, as two recent examples. I'm wondering where else mercenaries (on both "sides") are being deployed. And the really big question is how many russian boomers are deployed, and I would suppose they are still being shadowed by western attack subs.
It seems to me that it is the Russians, with Chinese support, that are risking the next Big One. Too bad our media don't point this out on a regular basis.

The US government doesn't seem overly worried about WW3. I assume they have good intelligence.

China is mostly sitting on the sidelines and probably hopes WW3 doesn't happen.

IMO the best bet at this stage is keep backing Ukraine, but try to avoid direct NATO involvement, exactly what NATO and the US are doing.

A lot of those Wagner Mercenaries have already died in Ukraine. Mercenaries will mostly find that fighting professionally trained armies is different to bullying lightly armed armies or civilians. if a lot of Mercenaries come to Ukraine to did, that is less damage they are doing elsewhere.

One reason I think Russia might not want to start WW3 is, their performance in conventional war has been less than stellar, assuming the escalation will go better for them is a risk. They are using the threat to keep NATO out of direct involvement, for now, that is the red line.

 

[wdolson]

Serious as it is, this war in Ukraine might be a diversion for other actions around the world. Mr. Lavrov hints at threats of WW3, while the news has reports of Wagner Mercenaries in Mali, and Chinese expansion into the Pacific, as two recent examples. I'm wondering where else mercenaries (on both "sides") are being deployed. And the really big question is how many russian boomers are deployed, and I would suppose they are still being shadowed by western attack subs.
It seems to me that it is the Russians, with Chinese support, that are risking the next Big One. Too bad our media don't point this out on a regular basis.

As Freud once said "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar". Wagner Group is only so big. They expanded when the war started to about 8000 people, but they have been recalling personnel from other parts of the world to go into Ukraine. The Ukrainians have found ID papers on bodies for Wagner Group personnel.

The Russians don't have that many boomers left. There is one Typhoon that is a test platform, and one under repair. There are 4 SSBNs active in the Pacific fleet and and 6 active in the Northern Fleet.
List of active Russian Navy ships - Wikipedia

The only people threatening WW III right now are the Russians. The rest of the world is being very careful not to start a nuclear war. I haven't been paying close attention to the regular media about the war, but I have seen quite a bit of concern this war could turn nuclear.

 

[RSpanner]

As Freud once said "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar". Wagner Group is only so big. They expanded when the war started to about 8000 people, but they have been recalling personnel from other parts of the world to go into Ukraine. The Ukrainians have found ID papers on bodies for Wagner Group personnel.

The Russians don't have that many boomers left. There is one Typhoon that is a test platform, and one under repair. There are 4 SSBNs active in the Pacific fleet and and 6 active in the Northern Fleet.
List of active Russian Navy ships - Wikipedia

The only people threatening WW III right now are the Russians. The rest of the world is being very careful not to start a nuclear war. I haven't been paying close attention to the regular media about the war, but I have seen quite a bit of concern this war could turn nuclear.

yeah, that sounds about right..... and I thought Churchill said it...

 

[alloverx]

From a WaPo article

Arestovych doubts Ukraine was involved in the fires at the defense-related facilities and suggested that Russian officials are setting fires to cover up evidence of corruption.
“I think you need to look for reasons inside Russia — for example, hiding the means by which money has been stolen from the Russian Defense Ministry,”

 

[alloverx]

Gen. Jack Keane: Putin is fighting to stay in power

 

[Tiger]

Popcorn time, Chechens taking advantage of the situation, not that I condone any more war in this world:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519061793716408320

Did Kadyrov visit the front lines just for his troops to learn how bad in shape the Russian army is?