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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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If you are about to go on the offensive and the enemy figures out where you are going to attack, it gives the enemy an opportunity to reinforce and fortify the point where the enemy is going to attack. The mobiks have no say in any of this. They are just the poor saps who get killed when the offensive begins.

At Kursk in 1943 the Germans did not do anything to really conceal they were about to launch a large offensive on the Kursk salient. Zhukov heavily reinforced the area and when the Germans did launch their attack the Russian defenses cut the Germans to ribbons. It was a hard fought battle with high casualties on both sides, but it marked the last large scale German offensive in the east and the second to last large scale offensive of the war (the Ardennes operation in late 1944 was their last major offensive).

If the Ukrainians want to keep operational security they won't use the Abrams for any major offensives. I would use them for a feint. Take the handful of Abrams and drive them around at night near one of the possible offensive points and get the Russians thinking the Abrams must be the point of the spear. Then launch the offensive elsewhere.

Yes, I think good cases can be made for utilizing the Abrams in either more defensive or more offensive roles. If these are brand new equipment, or in top condition, I'd say the offensive role gains advantage. Subterfuge has an important role to play in warfare, but at a certain point you need to lay down your cards and go into battle. I'd love to see some of these Abrams in action, pushing the Russians east. That is what they were built for really.
 
Another day of high losses for the Russians. Something is going on. Maybe the Russians are trying an offensive and it isn't going well?

personnel ‒ about 123860 (+780) persons were liquidated,

tanks ‒ 3175 (+14),

APV ‒ 6334 (+27),

artillery systems – 2169 (+15),

MLRS – 452 (+2),

Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 220 (+0) ,

aircraft – 292 (+2),

helicopters – 282 (+1),

UAV operational-tactical level – 1908 (+6),

cruise missiles ‒ 749 (+0),

warships / boats ‒ 18 (+0),

vehicles and fuel tanks – 4986 (+19),

special equipment ‒ 195 (+1).

https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023...osses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-22-to-26-01-23/

More aircraft shots down today and high losses in Russian combat vehicles.
 
The leopard did not do so well in Syria when the isis took out 10 of them while at worst Abrams have been damaged. Useful and better than the Txx fielded by Russian it it won’t be a magic cure . Frankly the challenger has a better record. Friendly fire has been the only cause of complete loss by either an Abrams or challenger.
These were old versions from the 1980s that were left sitting completely stationary on a hilltop with no protection whatsoever. Sitting ducks. Incompetent use of a tank at its worst. Perhaps you could give us a comparable situation faced by Challengers and Abrams?

The US has tons of Abrams sitting in storage, yet we are supposed to believe that it will take many months to deliver any to Ukraine? It's hard to believe that the US isn't acting completely dishonestly here.
 
These were old versions from the 1980s that were left sitting completely stationary on a hilltop with no protection whatsoever. Sitting ducks. Incompetent use of a tank at its worst. Perhaps you could give us a comparable situation faced by Challengers and Abrams?

The US has tons of Abrams sitting in storage, yet we are supposed to believe that it will take many months to deliver any to Ukraine? It's hard to believe that the US isn't acting completely dishonestly here.

It does take time to rehab a tank after it's taken out of storage. Plus the tank crews and maintenance crews need to be trained. The peacetime training course for an Abrams mechanic is over a year long. It can be shortened due to the war emergency, but it still takes time to train the mechanics. The heavy maintenance can probably be taken care of at depots in Poland, but there are tons of daily maintenance that needs to be performed in the field.

I've seen estimates that the field mechanics training might be condensed down to about 5 months.
 
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I agree something is up on the abrams, they are not even supplying out of old inventory. The procurement process is different than for everything else so yes something is up on the Abrams. Yes also that it took the USA supplying tanks to get Germany to drop strident resistance. Also the whole thing about it being a turbine and complex is bunk- the turbine can be pulled and replaced in a shocking short amount of time, much faster than for a diesel. Ukraine has aircraft mechanics that will understand helicopter turbines, that is all it is. So yes , something is up.

The leopard tanks being supplied to Ukraine are often the same series as that used by Turkey, 2a4. The original Abrams would have the same issues I suspect.

Yes the Turks had poor tactics but lost some others in unacceptable ways - old anti tank missles hits from side. 10 destroyed by an ISIS relying on captured weapons.

Just for the thread here to not be surprised if leopard losses mount as many are older versions without upgraded armor.

The decision on the abrams turbine is interesting, why a turbine vs a diesel.

Good on the UK to kick this off with the challengers, a very good tank and I believe all up armored.
 
Anyone want to make a prediction on what Russia does next?

Putie continues to double down w. inflamatory rhetoric against the West, and pyrrhic attacks on defenseless civilians in the East. Meanwhile, his armed forces burn and wither in the fields, until some Russian actor finally snuffs him and ends the war with a cease fire, a withdrawal of remaining Russian forces, and sues for peace. IMO.
 
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It does take time to rehab a tank after it's taken out of storage. Plus the tank crews and maintenance crews need to be trained. The peacetime training course for an Abrams mechanic is over a year long. It can be shortened due to the war emergency, but it still takes time to train the mechanics. The heavy maintenance can probably be taken care of at depots in Poland, but there are tons of daily maintenance that needs to be performed in the field.

I've seen estimates that the field mechanics training might be condensed down to about 5 months.
Then take tanks from active duty, just as others do.
The Leopard 2 A6 that Ukraine gets from Germany is a very modern, sophisticated tank, which is only now getting slowly replaced by the Leopard 2 A7. Why do you believe that it requires less training than the Abrams?
 
These were old versions from the 1980s that were left sitting completely stationary on a hilltop with no protection whatsoever. Sitting ducks. Incompetent use of a tank at its worst. Perhaps you could give us a comparable situation faced by Challengers and Abrams?

The US has tons of Abrams sitting in storage, yet we are supposed to believe that it will take many months to deliver any to Ukraine? It's hard to believe that the US isn't acting completely dishonestly here.
I don't think it matters that much that it takes a long time for delivery, everyone knows supplying the Abrams was just a way to get through Germany's excuses to stall on the Leopard 2s. It's fairly obvious the Leopard 2s will be the main players in whatever Ukraine will do in the near term, as they are pretty much ready to deliver.

According to this thread on Reddit, it takes 8-10 months to refurbish an Abrams from storage and have it ready for delivery to a customer:

So yes, you are supposed to believe it will take many months to take them out of storage (because that's how long it actually typically takes).
 
Then take tanks from active duty, just as others do.
The Leopard 2 A6 that Ukraine gets from Germany is a very modern, sophisticated tank, which is only now getting slowly replaced by the Leopard 2 A7. Why do you believe that it requires less training than the Abrams?
Then take tanks from active duty, just as others do.
The Leopard 2 A6 that Ukraine gets from Germany is a very modern, sophisticated tank, which is only now getting slowly replaced by the Leopard 2 A7. Why do you believe that it requires less training than the Abrams?
mostly what they will be getting is 2a4... the a6 was much improved. For sure the fuel supply for. Company of abrams exceeds that of a company of leopards. USA assumes they could always fuel them, but for Ukraine this may stretch supply chain. The rolls Royce diesels have been much improved since MB first developed that version in the 70s , much more efficient nowadays. Funny that MB sold it to RR.
 
I don't think it matters that much that it takes a long time for delivery, everyone knows supplying the Abrams was just a way to get through Germany's excuses to stall on the Leopard 2s. It's fairly obvious the Leopard 2s will be the main players in whatever Ukraine will do in the near term, as they are pretty much ready to deliver.

According to this thread on Reddit, it takes 8-10 months to refurbish an Abrams from storage and have it ready for delivery to a customer:

So yes, you are supposed to believe it will take many months to take them out of storage (because that's how long it actually typically takes).

From what I've been reading it sounds like the US is planning to send over the M1A2 variant. Possibly stripped of certain features that they don't want the Russians getting an opportunity to take a good look at. It appears they want the tanks to serve a purpose more than symbolic.
 
From what I've been reading it sounds like the US is planning to send over the M1A2 variant. Possibly stripped of certain features that they don't want the Russians getting an opportunity to take a good look at. It appears they want the tanks to serve a purpose more than symbolic.
All the reports so far say M1A1, but it may just be ignorant reporters, I guess we'll see what configuration is ultimately delivered.
 


[...] and those [Abrams tanks] will arrive not in weeks, but in several months, and possibly not for another year.
This is because the tanks will be ordered from the General Dynamics factory, which will have to build them from scratch, and will not be drawn from America’s existing stockpile, though the U.S. Army has about 4,400 Abrams tanks, many of them already in Europe.