-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I have read that Wagner was getting involved in the civil war in Sudan. Jordan is at peace and has been for quite some time.
Thank you guys. Was my bad memory, should have checked the specifics. (American fails at basic geography, News at 11)
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Artillery in the Urban Battles of Ukraine - Modern War Institute
What are the advantages and disadvantages of using artillery in urban warfare? What are the tactics, techniques, and procedures that work best when using indirect fires during operations in cities? How […]
mwi.usma.edu
the modern war institute publishes another excellent podcast, they have an entire catalog there.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Well, this is a bad look:
Neo-Nazi MMA promoter Denis Kapustin behind recent anti-Putin raid on Russian city of Belgorod
Russian Neo Nazi Denis Kapustin, aka Nikitin, has claimed responsibility for an attack against Russian forces in the city of Belgorod.bloodyelbow.com
I first saw this in the NYT so I tried to find other coverage that's not pay-walled. This site that covers MMA (mixed martial arts) would not be my first choice but all the other sources on Google's first page of news results for "Denis Kapustin" talk about the incursion but not the neo-nazi connection.
This site seems, at best, agnostic about the neo-nazi connection. They also incorrectly reported that the US is struggling to explain Russia's obviously faked Humvee wrecks so IMHO they are either woefully ill informed or they are pro-Russia. Unfortunately they are the only non-paywalled site I could find. I hope some of you can do better.
I guess a war like this one 'tends to place' people in positions where they have to make tough choices... Most likely also some really, really, really tough choices...
How many Ukrainians have been killed this far? 100,000+? And how many have been injured?
Which Russians are you going to send into Russia on a shaping op. which purpose is to pave the way for the best possible result with regards to 'a potential' upcoming counter offensive?...
To paraphrase some other dude...
'If your country is criminally attacked and invaded, and little girls and boys as well as women and men around you are being blown to pieces, then you find yourself with the Russians you have, not the Russians you might want or wish to have at a later time...'
EDIT:
If anyone is wondering about some reaction to this comment...
I edited the paraphrase above to more accurately reflect causation.
Here's what I originally wrote and posted:
To paraphrase some other dude...
'You go to war with the Russians you have, not the Russians you might want or wish to have at a later time...'
Last edited:
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Tiger
Active Member
Ukraine’s chief commander Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi claims counteroffensive is imminent:
‘It’s Time’: Ukraine’s Top Commander Says Counteroffensive Is Imminent
Ukraine’s top military commander signaled on Saturday morning that the nation’s forces were ready to launch their long-anticipated counteroffensive following months of preparations, including recently stepped-up attacks on logistical targets as well as feints and disinformation intended to keep Russian forces on edge.
“It’s time to get back what’s ours,” Ukraine’s supreme military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, wrote in a statement.
‘It’s Time’: Ukraine’s Top Commander Says Counteroffensive Is Imminent
Russians snitch on Russians who oppose war with Soviet-style denunciations
Was this never not a thing in Russia? From what I've read about the USSR, it was popular way to get back at neighbors you didn't like, rat them out to KGB.
Was this never not a thing in Russia? From what I've read about the USSR, it was popular way to get back at neighbors you didn't like, rat them out to KGB.
navguy12
Active Member
“…After all, there will be a new leader after Putin. Peace for Ukraine is NATO...”
From an editorial in the Toronto Star (20 May 2023) written by a Ukrainian living in Ukraine:
From an editorial in the Toronto Star (20 May 2023) written by a Ukrainian living in Ukraine:
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
"If you want to play hockey with Canadians and not Indians..."
Underlying message is definitely that with Putin, Russia is missing out on the world stage. Glad to hear at least some pushback. Of course, "voters will hear you and do the exact opposite" according to the talking heads.
“…After all, there will be a new leader after Putin. Peace for Ukraine is NATO...”
From an editorial in the Toronto Star (20 May 2023) written by a Ukrainian living in Ukraine:
A change in leadership probably won't bring peace any time soon. In the US Nixon ran on a platform that he was going to end the Vietnam War. After trying to step up the war and force North Vietnam into submission, he finally did pull the plug. But that didn't happen until his second term.
I don't expect Putin's replacement to be from the pro-peace faction. The faction who believe the only reason Russia is losing is they didn't go at the war hard enough are in the ascension in Russian politics. It looks like Prigozhin is going to run for president next year. As @Tiger posted, there is at least one person on Russian TV saying that someone else should replace Putin in next year's election. That's huge in Russia.
It's possible that a Putin replacement will try to step up the war and will then pull the plug when that fails. There are only a few things the Russians can do at this point to escalate: use nuclear weapons, use chemical weapons, try full mobilization. The first two would likely get Russia more isolated than they currently are. I think both China and India have told Putin that they will distance themselves from Russia if they used nuclear weapons and probably chemical weapons too. That leave them with more mobilization, but anybody trying that is going to find out very quickly why Putin didn't do it.
Mass mobilization would be a very bad idea for Russia. The young men who are now not mobilized are keeping the economy afloat. Russia is unusually top heavy in their age brackets. The economy would deteriorate badly if a significant number of the 18-40 age group were drafted. On top of that there are other problems. The draft is very unpopular in Russia and there is already a fair amount of discontent with the war. Mass mobilization could start draft riots which the Kremlin may be unable to put down. Then there is the practical problems of what to do with a lot of new mobiks. They don't have the ability to train them and they don't have the equipment to arm them. With the last wave of mobiks they were getting the ancient rifles in the back of the warehouse that were rusted hulks. The border guards are now armed with WW I rifles because all the automatic rifles were taken by the army.
In the winter battles a lot of mobiks units were going into battle with just a rifle and one clip of ammunition. Nothing else. Russia can eventually spin up production to make more rifles and more ammunition, but they are dependent on China for the chemicals needed to make ammunition and they need to do something to prioritize war production and shut down other industries.
I saw an article, it may have been one posted here, a couple of weeks ago that Russia has completely failed to up production of war goods in many areas because they have a labor shortage. Moscow has demanded increased production, but the war industries are struggling to maintain enough workforce to stay at pre-war production levels. In some cases production is below pre-war levels due to shortages, including labor.
Mass mobilization would make the labor shortage worse.
Russia doesn't have the population to run a large scale war industry and fight a war with high mobilization. The bulk of their excess population are old women. The average life expectancy of a Russian man is in the low 60s, but women can live into their 70s and 80s. To run the factories while the youth are off at war they would need to mobilize the female workforce to be in the factories and most of those would be old women.
If Russia were at threat like they were in the 1940s, the old women might step forward for the war effort and the young men might be willing to go, but there is not that kind of urgency to this war. At the end of the day, this is an optional war for Russia. Putin may have thought that Russia couldn't survive long term without Ukraine inside the tent, and he might be right, but that is a weak selling point for a war now. If the war had been a quick win, Putin would be a hero and people would see Russia as stronger, but Russians don't see the advantages to spilling a lot of blood and treasure now for Ukraine.
Whether Putin gets toppled in next year's elections (may not be possible with his fiddling with the vote) or ousted in a coup, his replacement is likely going to try and get tougher on Ukraine before throwing in the towel. If Russia gets that far. The scenario for Russian civil war ending the Ukraine war is also a possibility. This war has opened up the ethnic tensions in Russia that have been there for centuries. The lid is still on, but an attempt at mass mobilization might blow that lid off.
FielderJones
Member
IMO the replacement has one big advantage.
They didn't start the war, and they may take a realistic view of the chances of success.
The limitation is the replacement can't give away territory like Crimea, because that would undermine their political support.
However, if Ukraine takes back Crimea before Putin is toppled, then the replacement has a lot of room to negotiate.
Ukraine taking back Crimea, or looking like it will take Crimea, will probably result in Putin being toppled.
With Crimea off the table, Russia and Ukraine can probably negotiate a reasonable deal that will stick for a while.
I don't think a peace deal is the end of Russia being a threat, Russia will try to rebuild, but Ukraine can probably rebuild faster and will probably end the war in better shape.
So while Russia might not like being defeated and they may have ambitions of attacking Ukraine again in future, they reality is if they are defeated, they have to accept that for a while. Or of they don't, Ukraine may take back even more territory.
So the counter-offensive needs to be successful, because that really limit the options available to Russia.
Some Eastern Europeans are very religious, more genuinely religious than many in the west. Those that aren't are probably saying for the benefit of those that are.
They know not all of them will be alive after the counter-offensive, so those that are religious might find it comforting... We have never been in that situation, so whatever floats their boat IMO.
Similar threads
