ISW: Russian operations limited by lack of infantry
Russia now lacks the "elite infantry" units it once relied on to conduct large-scale offensives in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Aug. 28 report.
kyivindependent.com
Note: ISW = Institute for the Study of War
According to the ISW, the Russian military has been rapidly redeploying elite airborne units in front-line regions where Ukrainian counteroffensive troops are concentrated. On Aug. 27, an elite Russian air unit was transferred to Robotyne, likely from Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne on Aug. 28.
The ISW said that the frequent lateral redeployment of these units indicates that their capacity is likely diminishing.
"The degradation of these forces will likely weaken Russia’s ability to sustain complex defensive operations and almost certainly disrupt any Russian intent to resume offensive operations at scale," the ISW said.
IMO this is a big deal. Russia expends valuable resources shuttling their elite troops around the front. Unfortunately for Russians, they reinforced the line west of Robotyne and Ukraine attacked to the east, breaking through the main Russian defenses (that were under-manned).
OTOH, the news outlet Meduza claims almost the opposite, that Ukraine has used up almost all its reserves while Russia has only just begun tapping theirs.
Reserves and reservations Combat within the Robotyne–Verbove–Novoprokopivka triangle may well determine the outcome of Ukraine’s entire summer campaign
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments in the battlefield, based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our...
meduza.io
The problem faced by the Ukrainian command is, however, that it has already used up close to all of its available reserves, while the Russian side has only just begun moving fresh new units to the main combat theater.
Although they temper this assessment greatly in subsequent paragraphs:
- Still, Russia’s Southern grouping may not have enough reserves of its own to deflect the Ukrainian offensive. The Russian General Staff will likely have to send in additional reinforcements, and some analysts believe that at least two of the three regiments of the 76th Air Assault Division have already been sent south, from Kreminna in the Luhansk region. Although evidence of this is inconclusive, it’s true that, since late July, the 76th division has been absent from reports of combat in Kreminna.
- The larger share of other airborne troops and marines routinely used as stopgaps by the Russian command are already tied up in combat elsewhere. Still, the RAF has even further reserves, including the still-unexpended reserves of the Western grouping (now trying to advance towards Kupyansk, though not very effectively).
IIUC Ukraine did add some of their best reinforcements in order to break through the Surovikin line near Verbove. I have hopes that Ukraine is still keeping back some of their best equipped, Western trained troops for a September or October surprise.
www.theguardian.com
www.telegraph.co.uk
