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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Do N. Korea and China use Soviet sized artillery shells? I'm guessing yes, but I don't know that.

NK uses a mix of calibers. Among them are 122mm and 152mm.
List of equipment of the Korean People's Army Ground Force - Wikipedia


It's an open secret that the US has not produced ATACMS in a few years. They have been working on a replacement, but it isn't ready for production yet. The US was concerned initially about giving Ukraine anything that could hit Russian sovereign territory, but once that hurdle (Ukraine has shown they will not use US made weapons over the border) was overcome there was the problem that the US arsenal doesn't have a lot of ATACMS and there will be no more of them.

Earlier this year a solution to fire Tomahawk missiles from a land based platform was worked out. The Tomahawk has a similar range and payload to the ATACMS and the USN has a lot of them in inventory. The Army probably wanted to be sure that the Tomahawk solution was going to work before they were willing to release the ATACMS for export.

When the ATACMS run out, the Tomahawk solution will probably be in production and the US will probably provide Tomahawks.

I'm not sure, but I think the adaptation is for Tomahawks to be fired with the same system as the ATACMS. I could be wrong though. It might be a naval Tomahawk firing tube mounted on a truck.
 
wow the sack of potatoes to a dead Russian's family is a real thing. smh


That's more insulting than giving nothing. It's like having a $100 meal at a restaurant and leaving a $1 tip. It makes it clear the person thought of tipping, just couldn't be bothered to leave anything appropriate. If nothing was left there is the possibility the person forgot or they left cash and it was swiped, but leaving a paltry tip sends a different message.
 
That's more insulting than giving nothing. It's like having a $100 meal at a restaurant and leaving a $1 tip. It makes it clear the person thought of tipping, just couldn't be bothered to leave anything appropriate. If nothing was left there is the possibility the person forgot or they left cash and it was swiped, but leaving a paltry tip sends a different message.
A long-ago girl friend disliked a waitress and left a penny tip. The waitress threw it at her.
 
A long-ago girl friend disliked a waitress and left a penny tip. The waitress threw it at her.
I think that is why they do the sack of potatoes; too heavy to easily throw the entire bag at anyone.

Now a previously unadvertised benefit of Russian citizenship.

 

Reports are the entire shipyard is on fire. Looks like it was hit many times.

Sevastopol is the only military shipyard the Russians have in the Black Sea.
Sevastopol Shipyard - Wikipedia

Novorossiysk has two larger dry docks, but it's a civilian shipyard
T.J. GIAVRIDIS MARINE SERVICES CO. LTD.

Taking out the repair yard at Sevastopol does make it more difficult for the Russia to keep operating ships out of Sevastopol.
 
It's an open secret that the US has not produced ATACMS in a few years. They have been working on a replacement, but it isn't ready for production yet. The US was concerned initially about giving Ukraine anything that could hit Russian sovereign territory, but once that hurdle (Ukraine has shown they will not use US made weapons over the border) was overcome there was the problem that the US arsenal doesn't have a lot of ATACMS and there will be no more of them.

Earlier this year a solution to fire Tomahawk missiles from a land based platform was worked out. The Tomahawk has a similar range and payload to the ATACMS and the USN has a lot of them in inventory. The Army probably wanted to be sure that the Tomahawk solution was going to work before they were willing to release the ATACMS for export.

When the ATACMS run out, the Tomahawk solution will probably be in production and the US will probably provide Tomahawks.

I'm not sure, but I think the adaptation is for Tomahawks to be fired with the same system as the ATACMS. I could be wrong though. It might be a naval Tomahawk firing tube mounted on a truck.

For many targets Tomahawks will be as useful as Storm Shadow or Neptune, and the Western magazine depth is far greater with Tomahawk. However there are some specific targets that are heavily defended by S400 batteries and these would be a lot easier to go after with ATACMS. The most important of these is the Kerch bridge, where helpfully the most important bits are in Ukraine territorial waters. Whilst Neptune/StormShadow/etc have snuck past S400 from time to time, it would be a lot easier with ATACMS. Both the matter of the getting past the S400 and then doing the right amount of damage on impact.

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Some more factual clarification on the Starlink issue. It happens to confirm what I have previously said as being correct. (I'm not defending Musk btw, he still misunderstands the category difference between defence and aggression).

 

Re the hit on the shipyard drydock in this pic you can see an addition missle strike after the fire was well underway. The floating drydock, the target, had a landing ship and a sub undergoing repairs. Makes one wonder if Ukraine is deliberately targeting the landing ships? Or if this was one damaged earlier this year?
 
For many targets Tomahawks will be as useful as Storm Shadow or Neptune, and the Western magazine depth is far greater with Tomahawk. However there are some specific targets that are heavily defended by S400 batteries and these would be a lot easier to go after with ATACMS. The most important of these is the Kerch bridge, where helpfully the most important bits are in Ukraine territorial waters. Whilst Neptune/StormShadow/etc have snuck past S400 from time to time, it would be a lot easier with ATACMS. Both the matter of the getting past the S400 and then doing the right amount of damage on impact.

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Some more factual clarification on the Starlink issue. It happens to confirm what I have previously said as being correct. (I'm not defending Musk btw, he still misunderstands the category difference between defence and aggression).

Ukraine actually owns the small island off the coast of Russia so really the entire strait between Ukraine and Russia is in Ukrainian waters. The island was the source of many attempts by Russia to strong arm (steal) territory. One of the current UAF generals was stationed there and was taken prisoner and this was pre 2014. It has been to some international tribunal already and it was agreed that the island was Ukraine.
 
For many targets Tomahawks will be as useful as Storm Shadow or Neptune, and the Western magazine depth is far greater with Tomahawk. However there are some specific targets that are heavily defended by S400 batteries and these would be a lot easier to go after with ATACMS. The most important of these is the Kerch bridge, where helpfully the most important bits are in Ukraine territorial waters. Whilst Neptune/StormShadow/etc have snuck past S400 from time to time, it would be a lot easier with ATACMS. Both the matter of the getting past the S400 and then doing the right amount of damage on impact.

The ATACMS would definitely be good to attack extremely well defended targets. A large number of land launched Tomahawks would give the Russians fits. They would be dealing with nightly strikes on bases in Crimea. The infrastructure there would be in tatters in a matter of a few weeks to a couple of months.

My partner was pointing out if North Korea openly starts supplying Russia with arms, that might open the door for South Korea to open up some of its arsenal for donation. SK has a lot of interesting gear they could give. Among the goodies that are out of service and in reserve are some surface to surface missiles and a bunch of Stingers. Among the western allies SK also appears to have a large stock of surface to surface missiles, some compatible with the M270/HIMARS and others stand alone.

SK also has a large number of SP 155mm guns, some American made that are being retired in favor of their home grown guns. Their stockpile of 155mm ammunition may exceed what the US had at the end of 2021.

Per capita SK is one of the best armed countries in the world.


Re the hit on the shipyard drydock in this pic you can see an addition missle strike after the fire was well underway. The floating drydock, the target, had a landing ship and a sub undergoing repairs. Makes one wonder if Ukraine is deliberately targeting the landing ships? Or if this was one damaged earlier this year?

It may have been one of the ships damaged since the war began and the Ukrainians had intelligence that the repairs were almost complete.

The LSTs are useful for moving vehicles and with bridges out they are one of the few lifelines Russia has to keep Crimea from starving. Especially if Ukraine reaches the Azov coast and closes down the ferry that runs across the Kerch Strait. Russia scrapped most of those ferries when the bridge was completed and the last couple are running non-stop trying to keep Crimea supplied. Take out those ferries and the LSTs and Crimea is mostly isolated.

My partner read that Crimea currently only has enough fuel for a couple of days. It appears all of Russia is having a fuel shortage, even the military.
 
Over 100 VIPs attend UN screening of AP documentary on Russia’s siege of Ukrainian city of Mariupol

The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the other co-host, said “20 Days in Mariupol” documents “the horrors of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war of aggression.”

“We’re here tonight to bear witness, to bear witness to these horrors and to reaffirm our commitment to justice and peace,” she said. “We must continue to hold Russia to account for its atrocities. We must continue to support the Ukrainian people in their time of need.”
 

Interesting about the sub in dry dock. They might start using the sub pens in Balaklava. Balaklava isn't far from Sevastopol and is a nice port. Last time I was there many oligarchs and very reach people parked their yachts there. The Wikipedia says the pens are a museum. That isn't entirely accurate. I was under that impression, that it was a museum. I walked onto a sub that was moored outside there and learned very quickly it was an active-duty sub. Probably too small for Kilo class subs repair in the dry docks. If I ever went back to Crimea (highly unlikely) I'd definitely visit it again.

 
My partner read that Crimea currently only has enough fuel for a couple of days. It appears all of Russia is having a fuel shortage, even the military.
I get the feeling that the Russian air defence system in the Kherson/Crimea area has suffered another significant degradation in recent weeks. It is an example of evolutionary punctuated equilibrium in reverse.

First the Moskva, then Snake Island, then the S300/SA11 batteries etc coming into MLRS range, other ships whose names I forget, then the raiding actions, and Kilburn Spit/etc and airfield strikes, then that S400 battery, then the Boyko Towers oil rigs ....

Lanchester's Law doesn't just apply to land combat. Bit by bit the Russians are losing in the air and (very related) at sea. Best wishes to Ukraine, one can hope for a collapse at some point. That would save a lot of lives.