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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Some may argue Russia has exhausted much of their missile supplies. However, they may be holding back on missile strikes these days - other analysts suggest with evasion of sanctions, Russia has been black market resourcing enough chips to increase their manufacturing capacity to greater than pre-war rates. Suspect Putin is waiting for large bolus strikes on Ukraine when it gets colder to see if they can overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and escalate his war of terror.
For Ukraine, hopefully air defenses will prove able to handle most of this. Yet they can't be everywhere and at high enough density/supplies for all scenarios.
On the plus side for Ukraine, they will be in a relatively much better position to strike Russia back, as they did in Sevastopol last night. More missiles such as ATACAMS et al are on the way, plus home grown Ukrainian drone development proceeds at a rapid clip. So it's reasonably to believe Ukraine is also planning increasing use of overwhelming drone/missile attacks on high value targets.
We should also expect to see new domestic goodies soon - Ukraine's Antonov defense company is expanding drone making of the types far more sophisticated than what has been on display most recently.
For Ukraine, hopefully air defenses will prove able to handle most of this. Yet they can't be everywhere and at high enough density/supplies for all scenarios.
On the plus side for Ukraine, they will be in a relatively much better position to strike Russia back, as they did in Sevastopol last night. More missiles such as ATACAMS et al are on the way, plus home grown Ukrainian drone development proceeds at a rapid clip. So it's reasonably to believe Ukraine is also planning increasing use of overwhelming drone/missile attacks on high value targets.
We should also expect to see new domestic goodies soon - Ukraine's Antonov defense company is expanding drone making of the types far more sophisticated than what has been on display most recently.
I have also read that, best outsiders can judge, Russia may be slowly building up a reserve of missiles by launching fewer than they build.
Nevertheless, recent events make me very optimistic about Ukraine's recently shown ability to degrade Russia's strategic condition: artillery, air defense, fuel supplies, ammo supplies, and trucks all appear to be barely scraping by now, best we can judge from incomplete outside data.
I am thinking that if there is such thing as a Lanchester Square collapse specifically as regards to artillery, perhaps we are almost there? I suspect that's what the North Korea visit was largely for. Curious what our more war-educated voices here think about that, and the potentially huge implications for speed of advance?
EDIT: I want to add that I admire the apparent Ukrainian strategy of hitting them all over and unpredictably via multi-modes (raids from the ocean(!), Storm Shadows, drones, HIMARS, infiltration teams?, balloon flags(!), etc.), to keep the enemy's defenses moving around and stretched thin.
Interesting, so the storm shadow went right into the forward compartments.
I agree. MSNBC has been shameful in the way they have handled this story.
IMO, Elon put this issue to rest when he answered the question during the All-in Summit yesterday. Elon claimed that it would go against US sanctions to provide Starlink service in Crimea. And just because the Ukranian military wanted him to turn it on, he couldn't do it without explicit approval of the US government, which he did not get.
Here is the spot where Elons said this:
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Ukraine's coordination of multi-vector attacks on a given target is really impressive. The Ruzzians are left in complete disarray of what to expect and where. West Berliners use to send Balloon messages over the wall to East Berlin and I believe South Koreans have an annual or regular release of balloons to tell people the truth. Ukraine should set up a project to expand on the Flag balloon to tell Russians what evil their sociopathic dictator is committing. Send them photos of the pilot who flew his helicopter to Ukraine.
Hard to say what's happening in Russia. @petit_bateau posted a month or so back that rail traffic at the China-Russia border is way down. Russia is showig other signs of being severely cash strapped. There are reports of severe fuel shortages all over Russia and in Ukraine. There are legions of complaints from people in the field that they are getting only a trickle of supplies.
Some of these may be logistical, ie Russia is having trouble getting supplies where they need to go between Ukrainian strikes on their supply system and a lack of carrying capacity, but it's also possible that the inputs into the supply chain are drying up and they aren't able to put together enough to send to the front.
They have been able to get around sanctions and get the fairly simple ICs needed to make smart weapons (you don't need to put an AMD Ryzen in a missile, a 1980s microcontroller would probably do the job), but they are paying a lot more for them than they were before the war.
They also have had to deal with an increase in counterfeit chips. Unscrupulous Chinese chip sellers had been dumping counterfeits on western markets until western electronics makers got smart and started testing. These Chinese companies were stuck with a lot of counterfeits that they dumped on the Russians when they started buying up anything they could.
I give it 50/50 odds. Either Russia is storing up missiles for some kind of strategic missile blitz in the future, or they are running out of resources and manufacturing is down. Both possibilities have about an equal chance of being true.
We do know that Russia's economy is not healthy right now. But countries at war usually manage to keep on making war goods even when the economy is falling apart. Though having to import some of the materials would be a bottleneck if the money for foreign exchange is running out.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Outstanding deep strike planning by the Ukrainian air staff. Gonna give this battle plan an A++ at war college. 
13 Sep: “Stormy” Day. Russian Fleet SENT TO THE BOTTOM OF THE SEA | War in Ukraine Explained (1 hr ago)
13 Sep: “Stormy” Day. Russian Fleet SENT TO THE BOTTOM OF THE SEA | War in Ukraine Explained (1 hr ago)
BitJam
Active Member
Timothy Snyder on MSNBC.
Way to end Putin's war in Ukraine is to help Ukraine win it
Way to end Putin's war in Ukraine is to help Ukraine win it
You can't stop the killing tomorrow by cutting Ukrainians off because Ukraine civilians will continue to be killed and raped and tortured under Russian occupation. That choice is simply not available. Asking Ukrainians to give up land is asking them to give up millions of their people and they know what happens under occupation: death, torture rape. Things that are too terrible to mention.
So you can't stop the killing by giving up. The only way to stop the killing is to win the war. The only way to end the war is to win the war. I am one of those people who sincerely wants this war to end. The only way to end this war is to help Ukraine to win it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, at this point I just want to know if Russians can design anything where the turret DOESN'T cook off.
Because it's still BBQ season in Crimea...
2 Russian Naval assets done'n'dusted, fewer incoming Kalibr missiles to shoot down this Winter. Nicely sussed, UK.
Budmo!
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Good riddance, don't return
www.theguardian.com
Austrian ex-foreign minister moves to Russia – with ponies flown in on military plane
Karin Kneissl says she is moving to Russia to lead a thinktank she set up with St Petersburg University
www.theguardian.com
Has Ukraine started attacking gas infrastructure? Can Ukraine reverse some of the Polish lines to receive gas supplies from Norway this winter?
I've wondered at the Ukraines heretofore restraint in attacking russian pipelines and infrastructure and of course I know it would do wonders to the international energy markets but if you really wanted to pressure russia start taking out the pipelines east of Rostov on the Dammed or St Petersberry.
I've wondered at the Ukraines heretofore restraint in attacking russian pipelines and infrastructure and of course I know it would do wonders to the international energy markets but if you really wanted to pressure russia start taking out the pipelines east of Rostov on the Dammed or St Petersberry.
Interesting information on the RAF Rivet Joint which was fired on by a Russian fighter over the Black Sea last year. I remember the incident and it was played down by all involved at the time. Now it seems it may not have been a "malfunction" after all.
So far it seems Russia has been given a lot of leeway over various "mistakes" involving NATO countries.
As Russia's command structure, personnel, ammunition and equipment deteriorate, I can see a very serious 'mistake' looking likely.
Probably one that NATO is not going to be able to ignore.
What's going to happen then?
Rogue Russian pilot tried to shoot down RAF aircraft in 2022
The pilot fired two missiles - the first missed rather than malfunctioned, as was claimed at the time.
www.bbc.co.uk
So far it seems Russia has been given a lot of leeway over various "mistakes" involving NATO countries.
As Russia's command structure, personnel, ammunition and equipment deteriorate, I can see a very serious 'mistake' looking likely.
Probably one that NATO is not going to be able to ignore.
What's going to happen then?
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
A quick edited Google translate of a news flash from Swedish Public Service radio. I was unable to find the written statement the news flash is referring to.
Ukrainian Air Force pilots have completed an evaluation of the Gripen
Published today at 10.53am
Ukrainian pilots have now test-flown the Gripen fighter aircraft. This according to a written statement from Swedish Minister of Defence Pål Jonson.
The pilots have undergone orientation training which includes test flights in both aircraft and simulator as well as briefings for ground personnel.
According to Minister Pål Jonsson, this evaluation is part of a process to determine if Gripen can be sent to Ukraine.
Source in Swedish:
sverigesradio.se
And as stated previously: According to the SWE Government, SWE sending Gripen to UKR requires full Swedish NATO membership. So this is what Türkyie and Hungary is currently blocking.
Ukrainian Air Force pilots have completed an evaluation of the Gripen
Published today at 10.53am
Ukrainian pilots have now test-flown the Gripen fighter aircraft. This according to a written statement from Swedish Minister of Defence Pål Jonson.
The pilots have undergone orientation training which includes test flights in both aircraft and simulator as well as briefings for ground personnel.
According to Minister Pål Jonsson, this evaluation is part of a process to determine if Gripen can be sent to Ukraine.
Source in Swedish:
Jonson: Ukrainska piloter har testat Gripen - Nyheter (Ekot)
Ukrainska piloter har nu fått provflyga Gripen-stridsplan. Det skriver försvarsminister Pål Jonson (M) i ett uttalande.Piloterna har genomgått en orienteringsutbildning ...
sverigesradio.se
And as stated previously: According to the SWE Government, SWE sending Gripen to UKR requires full Swedish NATO membership. So this is what Türkyie and Hungary is currently blocking.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
0. The following also applies to oil. All this has been going on since the early 1990s.
1. Austria, Hungary, and Serbia all still are very reliant on Russian pipeline gas and have made very little effort to change this, a deliberate elective decision. The EU embargo on Russian pipeline gas has exemptions for the two EU countries (Austria and Hungary), and of course it is not applicable to Serbia.
2. All those countries have historically been controlled by Kremlin stooges, and a very significant part of the control mechanism is the manner in which those cheap gas supplies allow (i.e. are deliberately designed) so that the ruling groupings in those countries can harvest very large profits in those countries (and the adjacent petrochemical markets) both for personal enrichment and to use the funding stream to capture/retain political control of these countries and of other European countries. The other part of the arrangement is that the gas flows/contracts are designed so that the Russian oligarchy can essentially smuggle hard currency out of Russia in the form of physical gas, thereby enriching themselves / moving the cash out into Western banks in a pseudo-legal manner / and depriving the ordinary Russian of the financial gains. The contracts they have put in place are long term contracts which include "take or pay" clauses, which in these instances act as poison pills that benefit the Russian/etc oligarchy and deter takeover (or substitution) by non-Russian gas and owners.
3. Ukraine has always - as a matter of survival - absolutely studiously complied with the gas transit contracts for those pipeline networks that cross Ukraine, so as not to give Kremlin any pretexts. The Russian transit contracts across Ukraine are due to lapse and require renegotiation in 2024.
4. A set of pipeline networks via Turkey have come onstream (and been enlarged / extended in the last couple years) that allow Azeri/etc gas to flow, but which also allow Russian gas to bypass Ukraine from the South, via Turkey and thence across the Balkans. The intent of Hungary/Serbia/Austria and of course Turkey appears to be to bring in gas (and profits and political advantage ...) this way. (But at least Nordsteam and Polish transit are both off the table).
5. The games that result can get very complex and rough.
Serbia will increase supplies of Russian natural gas to Hungary if Ukraine pulls out of transit deal
Hungary has struck a deal with Serbia that could bring increased shipments of Russian natural gas through the Balkan country if Ukraine ends a gas transit agreement with Moscow.
apnews.com
Serbia to boost supplies of Russian gas to Hungary
If Ukraine follows through on ending a gas transit agreement with Russia, Serbia has promised to provide Hungary with increased supplies of Russian natural gas. Hungary’s foreign minister Péter…
brusselssignal.eu
Hungary in talks to redirect all Russian gas shipments to Turkstream
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/5L5IOCOP5RKVZPNJTBLX74HNAE.jpg)
Gazprom ramps up gas flows to Hungary via Turkstream pipeline, official says
Russia's Gazprom has ramped up flows to Hungary via the Turkstream pipeline that brings gas to Hungary via Serbia, a Hungarian foreign ministry official said on Saturday.
www.reuters.com
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/GCBS4FW2Z5O63MYORQ357YJBXQ.jpg)
Austria summons EU envoy for calling Russian gas payments 'blood money'
Austria's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday it was summoning the European Commission's envoy to the country for reportedly criticising the slow pace at which Austria is weaning itself off Russian gas and saying it was paying "blood money" for the fuel.
www.reuters.com
Austria imports of Russian gas hit pre-war levels
Austria has struggled to define its official state neutrality since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the moment, it continues to import Russian gas at maximum capacity, a key source of profit for Moscow.
www.euronews.com
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Meteor is integrated onto Gripen, but not onto F16.A quick edited Google translate of a news flash from Swedish Public Service radio. I was unable to find the written statement the news flash is referring to.
Ukrainian Air Force pilots have completed an evaluation of the Gripen
Published today at 10.53am
Ukrainian pilots have now been allowed to test fly the Gripen fighter aircraft. This according to a written statement from Swedish Minister of Defence Pål Jonson.
The pilots have undergone orientation training which includes test flights in both aircraft and simulator as well as briefings for ground personnel.
According to Minister Pål Jonsson, the this evaluation is part of a process to determine if Gripen can be sent to Ukraine.
Source in Swedish:
Jonson: Ukrainska piloter har testat Gripen - Nyheter (Ekot)
Ukrainska piloter har nu fått provflyga Gripen-stridsplan. Det skriver försvarsminister Pål Jonson (M) i ett uttalande.Piloterna har genomgått en orienteringsutbildning ...
And as stated previously: According to the SWE Government, SWE sending Gripen to UKR requires full Swedish NATO membership. So this is what Türkyie and Hungary is currently blocking
So Turkey is also blocking Meteor.
Meteor is what would allow Ukraine to push back Russian air to a sufficient depth that Ukraine would gain effective control over its own airspace.
Turkey (Erdogan) needs a lot more very stern talking to. Likewise Hungary (Orban) as he is still very active in the pro-Kremlin camp and they are all trying to create/reinforce even more pro-Kremlin stooges (Austria, Serbia, Czech, etc).
JupiterMan
Active Member
a little o/t (sorry!) but this does illustrate so clearly how much a better world this could be when reliance on fossil fuels subsides and each country becomes energy independent.
even for those fools who don't believe in climate change or effects of air pollution, this should be reason enough.
Tesla's mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy is so very important - the sooner Tesla launches heat pumps for the home to help combat natural gas demand the better.
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