Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ReddyLeaf]

What's with this green colour I'm seeing AH...???

Wow, up $2 AH. We haven’t seen that in a long time. Perhaps today’s $212.xx low was the turning point. Glad I closed out all of this week’s calls. Unfortunately, still a few LEAPS outstanding. There were lots of DITM puts traded today, including 2024 LEAPS, likely closed for tons of profits. This is another bullish indicator, though I don’t think most of the September puts have been closed yet, so perhaps still another week to go. I will check again on Monday.

As for TA, stochastic and stochastic momentum seem to suggest a slight turning point (slightly different slope between the two colored lines), while RSI and MACD are still going down (though not much farther to go). Edit: closer inspection of RSI also suggests a slight reduction in the downward trend.

I’m still guessing a test of $207+/-0.xx next week, maybe just a quick blip down before bouncing significantly. This breaks the 150d SMA and 0.618 Fibonacci level. It’s only a few points to break $200 and the 200d SMA near $196. Decision…..decisions. Unfortunately, not enough free cash yet to buyback all my CCs, so I’ll just keep scalping a few when I can, and hopefully 2 or 3 of the 2025 -c225s next week.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Interesting AH action, makes me wonder if shorts are covering.

 

[EVNow]

I feel your pain as do many others... it's all about risk and managing that risk... if you go all-in on ATM CC's and the SP pops up 10 every week for two months then of course you're going to get burned, but if you did it with half of your contracts then there's a fair chance you could wiggle out of it...

But you know this, of course

These ATM CCs were 10%+ OTM end of May and got caught in the run up - 210. Only today after nearly 3 months I was able to move them up to 215 … so they are ATM today. The other set of calls were C220, so could buy them back for a cent.

I’ll revisit the strategy and rules I was using sometime back and post the learnings.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Rolled back in a 380 CC for 2025/01 to 2024/06 280 CC for a bit of credit. Should we bounce back higher, there should be enough options to roll higher and further in time (2026 options coming in a few weeks as well).

Letting 09/15 225 CC run for a bit. Expiring OTM would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[Max Plaid]

These ATM CCs were 10%+ OTM end of May and got caught in the run up - 210. Only today after nearly 3 months I was able to move them up to 215 … so they are ATM today. The other set of calls were C220, so could buy them back for a cent.

I’ll revisit the strategy and rules I was using sometime back and post the learnings.

Sounds the same as the July -c200's I wrote that were around 15% OTM at the time

With writing a pile of -c210's and seeing the AH price rise yesterday I wonder if they got me again

Other than Honda announcing they've adopted NACS I see no other news that could account for it, so indeed might just be short covering after a very profitable week for them

Will work out a few escape plans over the weekend in case this is a reversal already, but you would have expected the Hedgies to test the 200MA

 

[SebastienBonny]

These ATM CCs were 10%+ OTM end of May and got caught in the run up - 210. Only today after nearly 3 months I was able to move them up to 215 … so they are ATM today. The other set of calls were C220, so could buy them back for a cent.

I’ll revisit the strategy and rules I was using sometime back and post the learnings.

I had the same with 225 CC. Never had the idea it would get OTM again, so rolled it about monthly since june for about 1500 premium in total now. No worries letting them go if that was the case, because premium came in on a regular base. Now we’re back OTM more possibilities are present, but like I said, I’ll let some theta burn before closing and taking a new position.

Ideally I’ll be happy to take a new position 5 or 10 higher for the end of september with some additional premium.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

FYI, several interesting spikes in the various MaxPain graphs.

8/25: Still lots of p200s traded for next week, more than OI, opened?
9/01: Action at p200 & p210. Maybe new, rolls? Wait to see
9/18: 70,000x at p210. Sentinel Trades to watch if closed
10/20: 17,000x at p200. Sentinel Trades to watch if closed

Taking these in aggregate, I think some conservative whales closed and cashed out the 9/18 & 10/20 puts. Need to confirm Monday 7am open interest. Those are big profits, so that makes sense, given the SP approaching the channel bottom. Then, there are still hedgies keeping the pressure on for the next two weeks, trying to push the SP below those TA levels (SMA, Fibonacci levels, channel bottom, psychological 200 level, etc.). Could be a wild two weeks. There were some calls traded, but not to the level of the puts, so I don’t think that the whales are ready, just yet, to jump onto the rising SP momentum trade.

Definitely be careful this week. My rolled ICs are in need of a higher SP, so the AH rise is hopeful. Still expecting a push down, but need to be very careful selling CCs (this is when I’ve gotten in trouble before). Might just sit out for the two weeks, other than closing spreads, I will be busy and traveling anyway, so definitely prudent. As always, GLTA.

 

[tivoboy]

FYI, several interesting spikes in the various MaxPain graphs.

8/25: Still lots of p200s traded for next week, more than OI, opened?
9/01: Action at p200 & p210. Maybe new, rolls? Wait to see
9/18: 70,000x at p210. Sentinel Trades to watch if closed
10/20: 17,000x at p200. Sentinel Trades to watch if closed

Taking these in aggregate, I think some conservative whales closed and cashed out the 9/18 & 10/20 puts. Need to confirm Monday 7am open interest. Those are big profits, so that makes sense, given the SP approaching the channel bottom. Then, there are still hedgies keeping the pressure on for the next two weeks, trying to push the SP below those TA levels (SMA, Fibonacci levels, channel bottom, psychological 200 level, etc.). Could be a wild two weeks. There were some calls traded, but not to the level of the puts, so I don’t think that the whales are ready, just yet, to jump onto the rising SP momentum trade.

Definitely be careful this week. My rolled ICs are in need of a higher SP, so the AH rise is hopeful. Still expecting a push down, but need to be very careful selling CCs (this is when I’ve gotten in trouble before). Might just sit out for the two weeks, other than closing spreads, I will be busy and traveling anyway, so definitely prudent. As always, GLTA.

Jeez, the $200 and that $90 OI in the first graph (it’s looks like a Tsunami coming to take over the land mass to the right). God help us.

 

[Max Plaid]

Jeez, the $200 and that $90 OI in the first graph (it’s looks like a Tsunami coming to take over the land mass to the right). God help us.

Those 90's have been there for ages, given the similar OI at 95 I would imagine they're mostly part of a spread

 

[tivoboy]

Those 90's have been there for ages, given the similar OI at 95 I would imagine they're mostly part of a spread

I thought those 90’s were pretty new, not long legacy.. do you know when they appeared in bulk?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Those 90's have been there for ages, given the similar OI at 95 I would imagine they're mostly part of a spread

I thought those 90’s were pretty new, not long legacy.. do you know when they appeared in bulk?

No, some were traded Friday (see 1st graphic above, maybe 18,000x). I don’t think there is anything to worry about. Those were bought at ask ($0.01), probably to avoid a margin call, and are likely just insurance protection money paid to the MMS mob bosses. The 200s, however, could be in play, and force the MMs to hedge. IMHO, YMMV.

 

[Max Plaid]

I thought those 90’s were pretty new, not long legacy.. do you know when they appeared in bulk?

Well, when I say "ages", I mean a few weeks, as I don't tend to look more than a month ahead, but that very distinctive pattern has been there for a while although I can't say whether the OI has changed during that time

And may also be, as @ReddyLeaf says, margin savers...

The chart is very put-biased, but we're on the cusp of CT/Highland which could flip the sentiment... need on more week of negative to close out the aggressive calls, then go a bit defensive...

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Well, when I say "ages", I mean a few weeks, as I don't tend to look more than a month ahead, but that very distinctive pattern has been there for a while although I can't say whether the OI has changed during that time

And may also be, as @ReddyLeaf says, margin savers...

The chart is very put-biased, but we're on the cusp of CT/Highland which could flip the sentiment... need on more week of negative to close out the aggressive calls, then go a bit defensive...

Oops, I need to retract my statement. Friday had p100s traded, not 90s or 95s. I’m not sure when the 90s or 95s were initially opened. Also, there were other similar new puts traded on later weeks. I still think they are attempts to reduce margin calls. Maybe folks need to buy new puts each week as the old ones expire each Friday. Like I said, protection money. Let’s hope that the chance of hitting that SP in a week or two is near zero.

I thought those 90’s were pretty new, not long legacy.. do you know when they appeared in bulk?

No, some were traded Friday (see 1st graphic above, maybe 18,000x). I don’t think there is anything to worry about. Those were bought at ask ($0.01), probably to avoid a margin call, and are likely just insurance protection money paid to the MMS mob bosses. The 200s, however, could be in play, and force the MMs to hedge. IMHO, YMMV.

 

[EVNow]

Oops, I need to retract my statement. Friday had p100s traded, not 90s or 95s. I’m not sure when the 90s or 95s were initially opened. Also, there were other similar new puts traded on later weeks. I still think they are attempts to reduce margin calls. Maybe folks need to buy new puts each week as the old ones expire each Friday. Like I said, protection money. Let’s hope that the chance of hitting that SP in a week or two is near zero.

Those 18,000 puts cost them a grand total of 18k. Must be to reduce margin or IV play.

Even the 74k puts at 210 is a very small fraction of the daily trading activity on TSLA. I doubt they have enough power to move the market much (except on Fridays).

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Well, when I say "ages", I mean a few weeks, as I don't tend to look more than a month ahead, but that very distinctive pattern has been there for a while although I can't say whether the OI has changed during that time

And may also be, as @ReddyLeaf says, margin savers...

The chart is very put-biased, but we're on the cusp of CT/Highland which could flip the sentiment... need on more week of negative to close out the aggressive calls, then go a bit defensive...

I’ve called these$90’s somewhere last week or the week before as incoming, commenting that fools really exist…

 

[tivoboy]

Those 18,000 puts cost them a grand total of 18k. Must be to reduce margin or IV play.

Even the 74k puts at 210 is a very small fraction of the daily trading activity on TSLA. I doubt they have enough power to move the market much (except on Fridays).

It’s a head fake, it’s meant to pop up on “unusual activity” screens… or yes, it could just be some MM or whale or Elons advisors protecting principle.. regardless, I don’t think it’s target indicative, but overall it’s DIRECTIONALLY indicative, as it has been for weeks now, ok well since Q2 Earnings, Zack, China, etc.

 

[EVNow]

It’s a head fake, it’s meant to pop up on “unusual activity” screens… or yes, it could just be some MM or whale or Elons advisors protecting principle.. regardless, I don’t think it’s target indicative, but overall it’s DIRECTIONALLY indicative, as it has been for weeks now, ok well since Q2 Earnings, Zack, China, etc.

Well, lets look at 2 big points because of which the SP shot up
- Advertisements (after company meeting)
- Ford/GM adopting Tesla charging std

Well, Tesla is still cutting prices. Ford/GM adopting NACS ... I've no idea why it was considered a positive to start with. I even wrote I'm bracing for a sell off at that time. We still have margin issues and demand problems.

And ofcourse the market is down. So directionally bearish is what we should expect. This is the reason I expect SP to go up

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Was that for today expiration?

It was.

Hopefully we can get some up days so I can sell CC on the new shares at just under 240 cost base.

 

[rikkert]

I'm considering leveraging up by swapping most of my core shares for LEAPs at this point. I'm eyeing the 19th Dec 2025 $165 calls (delta of 8.09 at the moment).

My rationale:
- share price is relatively low
- I expect share price to reach at least $300 again somewhere the next years
- IV is relatively low

Say I have 1000 shares, right now the share price is $215.
Profit when share price reaches $300 is (85*1000) = $85,000

I could swap 1000 shares for 32 of those LEAPS (contract price: $6,575).
IV being equal, optionsprofitcalculator projects these will be worth $15,000 given a share price of $300 at the end of 2023.
This yields a profit of about $269,600, or roughly a leverage of three.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

As Friday brought no big rebound I was not triggered to sell any calls. Because of NVIDIA earnings that can move all of the market I will not be deciding on flipping to short term -P either (but if margin allows maybe sell some far-out -P). On new lows or Bigger bounces after Wednesday I will resume short term trading. Not much cash left btw. Totally into LEAPS and shares. Only chance to improve portfolio on long TSLA is to sell off other positions that did better, not going down as fast, which going down turned out to be a good choice. Going back up, TSLA will overtake of course.