Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Timing is iffy. This is voodoo. Only 2 levels 210 and 240 should be taken seriously.

Thank you. So I won't ask about your position for next week but for those of us with -C230 and -C235 for next week, looking safe or close now and reposition next week for higher premium? Crazy they ran to ~$4 this morning when they were $1.50-1.80 yesterday.

 

[dl003]

Thank you. So I won't ask about your position for next week but for those of us with -C230 and -C235 for next week, looking safe or close now and reposition next week for higher premium? Crazy they ran to ~$4 this morning when they were $1.50-1.80 yesterday.

I think they're safe.

BTW, I do have better charts. They're exclusive to my OnlyFan subscribers.

 

[Max Plaid]

Makes sense. There was a seller in the crowd whenever it got over $220-221, pinning to $219.

@dl003 's chart seems to be pointing to $213-$214 around Tuesday next week, with a finish back up here at low $220's by Friday.
Then back to $210'ish early the following week and back to $217 area.

This implies that -C230 and -C235 are likely safe for next week.


View attachment 987641

Of course there was, huge call wall at 220 - I said earlier I would have expected them to bring it below... of course they let it run up early to wipe out the -p220's first

As they do...

I'm still waiting on my -p220 sell, hoping still for $6.1 for those running out of time, might have to give in...

Edit: OK, STO 50x 11/10 -p220 @$5.6 - seemed to be best I'm gonna get before close

 

[EVNow]

Waiting for tomorrow ... I've 220 CCs.

Finally rolled to next week 240 CCs for 30 cents.

I'd like to hear from the options veterans on how to manage this kind of CC.

I sold 220 calls when the SP was still below 200. So more than 10% out. But with the market rally - the closing today is likely around 220, but could have easily gone to 225 .... putting my calls again in ITM.

Basically what should be the trigger for rolling / buy back ? My usual style is to back on Friday for 0.01.
- buyback / roll when the SP comes within x$ or x% or certain delta of the strike price ?
- buyback / roll when the SP when the market turns bullish and important resistance levels are broken ?
- ???

ps : The problem with rolling / closing out when SP reaches with a few % of the strike is that many times the strike won't be breached (like today, by 0.05 cents). But many times, the SP will just shoot up and keep going up for weeks. Even rolling in those scenarios is bad. Much better to close and take a loss. Is there some back tested strategry that has high probability of success / maximizes returns ?

 

[Jim Holder]

Review of Cary's note from yesterday:

Overall: This rally does not have legs until TSLA closes over $226.23. A close above $226.23 can yield $255.66 in 2-3 weeks and no reason to stay short into later November.

A close below $209.51 pivots the market south into next week to $185.61 in 3-5 days and rotate off that back toward the $260's on a gradual basis.

For Friday, if TSLA opens or pushes above $219.01 we can see $226.23 and then rotate back toward $185.61 over the next 2-3 weeks.
$226.23 can be local ceiling for now and can short it for $186 if it doesn't push through.

Overall, holding below $219.01/$226.23 TSLA can fall to $209.51 and $185.61 in 1-2 weeks if closed below $209.51.
$205.75 may contain daily pressures for Friday if $209.51 breaks.

Lastly, $209.63-$226.23 may also be an overall bounce range.

Well done!

 

[EVNow]

Review of Cary's note from yesterday:

For Friday, if TSLA opens or pushes above $219.01 we can see $226.23 and then rotate back toward $185.61 over the next 2-3 weeks.
$226.23 can be local ceiling for now and can short it for $186 if it doesn't push through.

Well done!

That 226.23 is a Fibonacci level. Interesting that it held today - high of 226.37.

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting how cheap/low premium 11/24 calls are given CT on 11/30

Market not putting much value to it?

 

[Max Plaid]

Review of Cary's note from yesterday:

Overall: This rally does not have legs until TSLA closes over $226.23. A close above $226.23 can yield $255.66 in 2-3 weeks and no reason to stay short into later November.

A close below $209.51 pivots the market south into next week to $185.61 in 3-5 days and rotate off that back toward the $260's on a gradual basis.

For Friday, if TSLA opens or pushes above $219.01 we can see $226.23 and then rotate back toward $185.61 over the next 2-3 weeks.
$226.23 can be local ceiling for now and can short it for $186 if it doesn't push through.

Overall, holding below $219.01/$226.23 TSLA can fall to $209.51 and $185.61 in 1-2 weeks if closed below $209.51.
$205.75 may contain daily pressures for Friday if $209.51 breaks.

Lastly, $209.63-$226.23 may also be an overall bounce range.

View attachment 987652

Well done!

I'm hoping for a last minute surge above 220 just to annoy the manipulators... macro has been pushed down into close, they want NVDA at 450 too by the looks of it

 

[tivoboy]

Interesting how cheap/low premium 11/24 calls are given CT on 11/30

Market not putting much value to it?

View attachment 987658

$245 level is the strongest technical resistance/support level between $184.x and $257.x…IF we go higher between now and end of Nov I’d sell CALLS against that level all day long assuming the premium rises.

I think 11/30 for CT is going to be a Meh..and IF pricing comes in as some have reported, >85K even for the low end builds, +99K for the dual motor builds, Katie bar the door!.. at least as much as ppl are hoping that CT creates demand or pushes stock price up.

 

[Max Plaid]

What a great close - some of my friends watch football and rugby, this is way better sport!!

 

[Jim Holder]

FYI

 

[EVNow]

Interesting how cheap/low premium 11/24 calls are given CT on 11/30

Market not putting much value to it?

IV is quite low now (in spite of the 10% run this week). Around 44%.

BTW, I've not really seen higher IV after events except for delivery & ER. May be closer to the event the call prices will go up. FWIW Dec 1 IV is 46%

 

[Jim Holder]

Our old friend Yoona posted:

“Double Bottom became Triple Bottom with a target of $225, which is next week's tallest gamma.”

https://x.com/lastadam/status/1720532810602082651?s=46&t=h4O4UMPqHcbEi-gvTZklCw

 

[tivoboy]

FYI

View attachment 987661

Such an elevated sense of fear, and dread I have not had - in a WHILE..

 

[thenewguy1979]

The answers for today was here all along. Just trust in the team and we shall succeed

Guess next week will be flat and we trade based on the up and down movement from 222 to 210 and rinse repeat, and know 210 and 240 will be bottom and top till they are both breech.

Either that or join DI003 and short AAPL to 160 next week.

Thanks Team and have a great weekend.

 

[Jim Holder]

Such an elevated sense of fear, and dread I have not had - in a WHILE..

100%

Me too. I made sure to triple back up all my studies/settings/etc, I really loathe this whole transition. Plus I really love the functionality of the TD app and sad it’ll be going away and we must use mobile TOS (good but the tiny text bugs me) or the anemic Schwab app.

Boo for pointless mergers!

 

[tivoboy]

Our old friend Yoona posted:

“Double Bottom became Triple Bottom with a target of $225, which is next week's tallest gamma.”

View attachment 987662

https://x.com/lastadam/status/1720532810602082651?s=46&t=h4O4UMPqHcbEi-gvTZklCw

It’s a nice chart, and I’m all in team Yoona but I don’t like trying to inform from a ONE day chart, especially when the MM ONE objective today was to clear a billion calls at $220 WORHTLESS. And here we are at 219.7$. Push it down just enough, but not too much - more to conserve powder - and then creep happens, repeat until the close and hope you have just enough power until reinforcements arrive. It seemed to work, but as always “we‘ll see”

 

[tivoboy]

100%

Me too. I made sure to triple back up all my studies/settings/etc, I really loathe this whole transition. Plus I really love the functionality of the TD app and sad it’ll be going away and we must use mobile TOS (good but the tiny text bugs me) or the anemic Schwab app.

Boo for pointless mergers!

Mobile TOS is fine, I use it regularly, and it works quite well.. charting is a tad hard to manage on the small screen, but alerting and everything else sync across all platforms. Ipad TOS, even better. TOS isn’t going away, apparently but I don’t trust SCHW not to break it somehow in the interim.

 

[Jim Holder]

It’s a nice chart, and I’m all in team Yoona but I don’t like trying to inform from a ONE day chart, especially when the MM ONE objective today was to clear a billion calls at $220 WORHTLESS. And here we are at 219.7$. Push it down just enough, but not too much - more to conserve powder - and then creep happens, repeat until the close and hope you have just enough power until reinforcements arrive. It seemed to work, but as always “we‘ll see”

I wonder why so many calls were left open by owners until the close. The quantity of $220 calls appears to have been reduced by around half going into late afternoon but not to zero. Sorry if it’s a stupid question

 

[dl003]

This is one of the weirdest TSLA chart I've ever seen. I'll be a little lost next week if we break 230 before testing 210. I'm struggling to determine if the top of wave 1 was 201 or 204.83. If it's 201, which I like structurally, it'll make a lot of sense as the 4.618x level once again stopped the rally. If not, there's room all the way up to 243 without any meaningful retracement.