Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Big question is are you ok losing your shares at current prices, or are you a long term holder that is wanting a little extra money?
The only way to really lose money on CCs is to sell for a certain strike, regret it, and they buy back a losing position instead of rolling or letting the shares go.
If you are a long term holder, I would not sell for more than 0.2 premium, and try to wait for a green candle. 0.1 premium is even safer. If those go ITM, they shouldn't do it too badly, so you will have a pretty good bailout to Jan 2025 that raises the strike a lot and still gives you some income. Other option is just sell 400 or 450 strike CCs now for Jan 2025. If the SP is 500, you will still be able to roll them up and out another year (without income) to 500+.

And if you can do it in a tax advantaged, tax deferred account EVEN better.

 

[Jim Holder]

In the sell zone ($255-$260), unless it breaks out more:

 

[InTheMiddle]

STO -C265 12/22 @$1.50
STO -C270 12/22 @0.76
(3rd round trip)

Either one trip behind you or doing things in the reverse depending on your ordering. Yesterday was STO -C270s 12/22, and this morning STO -C265 12/22s (lower strike reflective of higher confidence now vs yesterday in where TSLA will be on 12/22). Generally aiming for 3 round trips/week as income.

 

[Jim Holder]

STO -C280 12/29 @1.10

 

[elasalle]

ST0 -C305 12/29 ~ .22c.
milk, milk, milk ...

Actual dates for Santa rally ...
This happens when stocks appreciate during the period between Dec. 25 and Jan. 2. Why it occurs is anyone's guess, as is the case with many seasonal patterns

 

[dl003]

TSLA has more than doubled this year. That means a lot of people have a lot of profits. I wonder how much institutional selling there will be before the end of the year to lock in gains? That could limit the SP going forward until we start 2024.

We didn't get here in a straight line, though. 217 -> 153, 299 -> 212, 279 -> 234, 269 -> 194. These are all healthy numbers for pullbacks which means ample opportunities for profit taking have been taken. I agree that the stock only has limited upside for these last trading days of the year but not because of that.

 

[Jim Holder]

absGEX dropped to $260

 

[thenewguy1979]

ICs at -247.5P/+242.5P/-262.5/+267.5 for 12/22

Max Pain at 247.5 and call wall at 260. Conservative play not too aggressive based on the hive feedbacks.

Will let it play out till Friday before BTC. Closing 1 side of the leg early will reduce max credit on either side. By closing at least 1 will get near full credit if either side are DITM.

 

[Yoona]

still bullish

 

[Jim Holder]

still bullish

View attachment 1001023View attachment 1001024

265 for Friday still safe?

A lot to get through to get there:

 

[Yoona]

265 for Friday still safe?

View attachment 1001029

A lot to get through to get there:

View attachment 1001032

TA says yes (has to climb above 2 more fibs) but 27 delta too close for comfort with 3 days to go.

Prev Fri Close 1 STDDEV is 266.35.

 

[dl003]

If you wonder whether your roll is a good/safe roll, do this quick calculation: strike price / 0.618 - 141. The result will be the highest TSLA can go before correcting for your roll to be considered "safe." I know I've been harping on about the 50% retracement. However, to be "safe", give yourself only 38.1%. If the stock tops out at 287, it will pullback to 265 minimum.

Now that we've started talking again about what is "safe" in regard to short calls, take ur time to go over this again.

The stock will pull back at some point, the question is when. Allow your call strike to be around the 40% retracement from a theoretical top, with the bottom being 228. 265 is "safe" in this sense as long as the stock doesn't go above 287 without pulling back. If it does go above 287 without pulling back, then roll your calls out using this formula, applying a new theoretical top.

The higher it runs, the harder it will fall.

Short term, things can get really irrational, but longer term, you can always count on a reversal to the mean as the craze dies down and people start taking profit.

 

[juanmedina]

I sold mostly $265cc's and a few $270's. And I also sold very few $280-272.5 BCS... Spreads always scare me.

 

[thenewguy1979]

have faith guys. Isn't 260/265 the sell zone. It's the Holiday people got to offload to buy gift right Worse come to worse Elon will come to the rescue of us Short Sellers by Friday.

Planning to add some debit spread for next week just in case we rocketed to 290. Long shot but if this week we break cleanly from 265 then that open the door to go long per Wicked and many others previously stated.

 

[Jim Holder]

Allow your call strike to be around the 40% retracement from a theoretical top, with the bottom being 228. 265 is "safe" in this sense as long as the stock doesn't go above 287 without pulling back. If it does go above 287 without pulling back, then roll your calls out using this formula, applying a new theoretical top.

Good stuff! In this case they expire this Friday, so $287 is not in the cards with time for a pullback by Friday ;- )
Did you have in mind expiration months out?

 

[Jim Holder]

If you wonder whether your roll is a good/safe roll, do this quick calculation: strike price / 0.6 - 67. The result will be the highest TSLA can go before correcting for your roll to be considered "safe."

I tried this and got 374.66, not 287, I must have done something wrong:

265 /0.6 =441.66 -67 = $374.66.

Do you mean something else by the -67?

 

[dl003]

Good stuff! In this case they expire this Friday, so $287 is not in the cards with time for a pullback by Friday ;- )
Did you have in mind expiration months out?

No, I dont expect it to close above 260 this week, but that is not a 100% probability.
In this type of scenario, beside looking at short term TA, I also look at longer term TA, asking myself what is a good theoretical top for it. If it is something I like, then I take it to get a 40% hair cut to get my call strikes.

If along the way, news comes out and it looks like I have to move my theoretical top, I will also adjust my call strike. If I'm stuck with an ITM call at that moment, I will look for a good exp to roll it to my new call strike.

 

[dl003]

I tried this and got 374.66, not 287, I must have done something wrong:

265 /0.6 =441.66 -67 = $374.66.

Do you mean something else by the -67?

it's 141 now. 67 was when the bottom was 102. Now the bottom is 228. I fixed the formula.

 

[Yoona]

same as yesterday, rejected at 50% fib

 

[Jim Holder]

No, I dont expect it to close above 260 this week, but that is not a 100% probability.
In this type of scenario, beside looking at short term TA, I also look at longer term TA, asking myself what is a good theoretical top for it. If it is something I like, then I take it to a 40% hair cut to get my call strikes.

Thank you