Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[adiggs]

Added -300/+330c for next week at .30.

Also purchased 240 strike puts for Jan 19 - the big expiration day in January - paying 3.40. I'm expecting to be closing these next week, early in the new year.


You can tell that my bias is far stronger down than up . I've been looking for a good csp or put spread entry and not seeing it. I consider the current share price to be high - I see a lot more risk in spreads to the downside than upside.

 

[Jim Holder]

Also purchased 240 strike puts for Jan 19 - the big expiration day in January - paying 3.40. I'm expecting to be closing these next week, early in the new year.

That's a good idea. Followed at my own risk.

 

[Jim Holder]

Algo not matching current price action. Good reminder not to blindly follow it.

3:30-3:45pm:

Actual price action: Drop to low $260's

 

[thenewguy1979]

Algo not matching current price action. Good reminder not to blindly follow it.

3:30-3:45pm:

View attachment 1003515

Actual price action: Drop to low $260's

Agreed, tried it yesterday. SP never drop to 254 but it's was pointed there for a long time.

 

[DarkKnight83]

Looks like a bullish close and PM will add ~$4 to it. Likely we open ~ $264. The pullback to 240 seems evasive.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Look like the below was met. Let see where the 2 next days bring us.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems crystal clear that the stock is predestined to pull back around P/D and earnings. Seems like it's all about keeping the lid on the stock to prevent breakout of the 2 year downtrend line until the macro's have their pullback/correction that everyone and their mom is waiting on in Q1, at which time push TSLA down to it's uptrend line to test that.

I'm quite tempted to sell more mid-term (6-12 month out calls) to take advantage of the share price drop that will likely go into the mid 220's before meeting the uptrend low.

What I'll likely end up doing though is using the opportunity to close out the CC's on a couple thousand shares I sold CC's on and roll the LEAPS I bought beginning of Jan this year from Dec 2025 to June 2026 on the cheap, probably also pick up a few more of the June 2026 LEAPS. While Q1 is likely to be a correction/rug pull for the macro market taking TSLA down with it, I'm very bullish on the macro's and TSLA in 2nd half 2024.

P/D numbers would need to be above 500k in a meaningful way for TSLA to break the downtrend line since it would ignite a much stronger/higher rally. I guess possible Cybertruck production numbers and commentary from TSLA on the ramp could provide the spark. But then again TSLA will probably given very cautious commentary on Cybertruck production.

The main variable to me that makes CC's tricky for pretty much all of 2024 is FSD V12/China FSD release. Either of those could trigger the Hertz style run.

 

[Jim Holder]

Look like the below was met. Let see where the 2 next days bring us.

View attachment 1003528

“By a hair…”

Let’s see what Cary says tonight ;- )

 

[DarkKnight83]

Seems crystal clear that the stock is predestined to pull back around P/D and earnings. Seems like it's all about keeping the lid on the stock to prevent breakout of the 2 year downtrend line until the macro's have their pullback/correction that everyone and their mom is waiting on in Q1, at which time push TSLA down to it's uptrend line to test that.

I'm quite tempted to sell more mid-term (6-12 month out calls) to take advantage of the share price drop that will likely go into the mid 220's before meeting the uptrend low.

What I'll likely end up doing though is using the opportunity to close out the CC's on a couple thousand shares I sold CC's on and roll the LEAPS I bought beginning of Jan this year from Dec 2025 to June 2026 on the cheap, probably also pick up a few more of the June 2026 LEAPS. While Q1 is likely to be a correction/rug pull for the macro market taking TSLA down with it, I'm very bullish on the macro's and TSLA in 2nd half 2024.

P/D numbers would need to be above 500k in a meaningful way for TSLA to break the downtrend line since it would ignite a much stronger/higher rally. I guess possible Cybertruck production numbers and commentary from TSLA on the ramp could provide the spark. But then again TSLA will probably given very cautious commentary on Cybertruck production.

The main variable to me that makes CC's tricky for pretty much all of 2024 is FSD V12/China FSD release. Either of those could trigger the Hertz style run.

Is it? I am waiting for this pullback for a long time. Its evasive and its frustrating me.

 

[Jim Holder]

Finally some push-back from Tesla corporate to Roto-Reuters FUD:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1740097070789198241

 

[thenewguy1979]

Doggy sense say

A - we pump into Thursday / Friday and start dumping after PD into the 235/240 realm. Satisfied both bull then bear. Just need to plan exit so don't get caught in the middle.

Or B - Elon say something tomorrows and we start the downhill faster then anticipated

Or C - we beat PD and stock continue to rocket to 340

I picked A. Pick yours

 

[tivoboy]

Doggy sense say

A - we pump into Thursday / Friday and start dumping after PD into the 235/240 realm. Satisfied both bull then bear. Just need to plan exit so don't get caught in the middle.

Or B - Elon say something tomorrows and we start the downhill faster then anticipated

Or C - we beat PD and stock continue to rocket to 340

I picked A. Pick yours

 

[DarkKnight83]

Doggy sense say

A - we pump into Thursday / Friday and start dumping after PD into the 235/240 realm. Satisfied both bull then bear. Just need to plan exit so don't get caught in the middle.

Or B - Elon say something tomorrows and we start the downhill faster then anticipated

Or C - we beat PD and stock continue to rocket to 340

I picked A. Pick yours

I like A. But a huge pump next two days wont' give us a big pull back.

 

[DaBooster]

Lots of confluence at $263, let's see if it holds as cap for this week:

View attachment 1003437

“By a hair…”

Let’s see what Cary says tonight ;- )

Does he not have a +1% rule?

 

[Jim Holder]

Does he not have a +1% rule?

Yup!

Needs a weekly close over $263.66 for a clear buy signal. So far not there yet, so can still target $240’s and below over the next several weeks.

Today’s update, worth a watch:

 

[DarkKnight83]

Yup!

Needs a weekly close over $263.66 for a clear buy signal. So far not there yet, so can still target $240’s and below over the next several weeks.

View attachment 1003553

View attachment 1003554

View attachment 1003555

With the current euphoria in market, I am worried. Its already pumping in AH.

 

[Jim Holder]

With the current euphoria in market, I am worried. Its already pumping in AH.

What’s to worry about? If it clears $265 then you can get in then and ride to $278-$313-$348 or any stop along the way. Until then it can go either way. NFA.

 

[DarkKnight83]

What’s to worry about? If it clears $265 then you can get in then and ride to $278-$313-$348 or any stop along the way. Until then it can go either way. NFA.

I didn’t buy enough shares and its risky to buy up here.

 

[Jim Holder]

I didn’t buy enough shares and its risky to buy up here.

I understand the feeling. I sold longs in a smaller account at $259.50 this morning (not a perfect exit) and BTC a bunch of -P for gains at $262. I will be watching for when/if to get back in for both. But I’m okay with what I have done in the meantime. Slippage is inevitable and perfection comes around only once in a while

 

[DaBooster]

I didn’t buy enough shares and its risky to buy up here.

If I have learned anything over the past 3-4 years is that There is always a dip, even when you don't think there's dip one shows up eventually.
TSLA stands for volatility