Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Hey gang, watching SMCI trading in the low 700's earlier, I couldn't see any rolls worth the effort, so decided to just close out the +p's and -p's, take the small loss (-$35k) and move on

Seemed like a nice idea to trade SMCI with the high IV and juicy weekly premiums, but that's the problem, the high IV is there for a reason and the drop after the lack of guidance and then yesterday's gap-down after earnings, just threw the whole thing out of the window

Still have the 500x NVDA to sort out, then I stick with what I know, TSLA

 

[Yoona]

Thats a great helpful visual! Can you kindly share that TradingView tab so we can duplicate it on our end?

View attachment 1043506

View attachment 1043507

can u pls share something first? i want to check security settings if profile will be exposed

 

[Yoona]

Most of the time, the SP comes back at some point well before your expiration

A+++

 

[Yoona]

Hey gang, watching SMCI trading in the low 700's earlier, I couldn't see any rolls worth the effort, so decided to just close out the +p's and -p's, take the small loss (-$35k) and move on

Seemed like a nice idea to trade SMCI with the high IV and juicy weekly premiums, but that's the problem, the high IV is there for a reason and the drop after the lack of guidance and then yesterday's gap-down after earnings, just threw the whole thing out of the window

Still have the 500x NVDA to sort out, then I stick with what I know, TSLA

i have the opposite positive experience (and this is why the latest SMCI crash AGAIN doesn't bother me)

consecutively selling very DITM CC 770 allowed me to have breakeven 670

at 5/3:
sp >= 770, shares are gone but i keep $10k extrinsic realized gain
677 < sp > 770, i keep shares for round 2 another DITM (cb 677) or roll to same strike again
sp < 677, unlikely but stop loss preserves capital, round 2 start wheel again

this is the most relaxed that i've been in the last 4(?) yrs, i wish i did this strategy sooner (lots of tears and regrets but moving on)

 

[Max Plaid]

i have the opposite positive experience (and this is why the latest SMCI crash AGAIN doesn't bother me)

consecutively selling very DITM CC 770 allowed me to have breakeven 670

at 5/3:
sp >= 770, shares are gone but i keep $10k extrinsic realized gain
677 < sp > 770, i keep shares for round 2 another DITM (cb 677) or roll to same strike again
sp < 677, unlikely but stop loss preserves capital, round 2 start wheel again

this is the most relaxed that i've been in the last 4(?) yrs, i wish i did this strategy sooner (lots of tears and regrets but moving on)

Buy/Writes, no? I was just selling puts against long puts

When I give up the day job I’ll look to diversify

 

[ChiefRollo]

Buy/Writes, no? I was just selling puts against long puts

When I give up the day job I’ll look to diversify

What is your day job? All we hear about is playing music, drinking, and traveling...aside from trading.

 

[thenewguy1979]

i have the opposite positive experience (and this is why the latest SMCI crash AGAIN doesn't bother me)

consecutively selling very DITM CC 770 allowed me to have breakeven 670

at 5/3:
sp >= 770, shares are gone but i keep $10k extrinsic realized gain
677 < sp > 770, i keep shares for round 2 another DITM (cb 677) or roll to same strike again
sp < 677, unlikely but stop loss preserves capital, round 2 start wheel again

this is the most relaxed that i've been in the last 4(?) yrs, i wish i did this strategy sooner (lots of tears and regrets but moving on)

Is this the "free" money strategy you discussed a while ago? Does it only work on SMCI?

 

[thenewguy1979]

What is your day job? All we hear about is playing music, drinking, and traveling...aside from trading.

That is the day job

 

[Jim Holder]

can u pls share something first? i want to check security settings if profile will be exposed

Here you go, an example of one of my tabs:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8vMmzA5G

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Yoona]

Is this the "free" money strategy you discussed a while ago? Does it only work on SMCI?

DITM CC works on any stock if there is extrinsic

for ex, if you buy stock and STO CC 725, your total cost is 72400. At expiration where CC is called away, you net 72500-72400=100.

easiest 100 ever as long as stock doesn't crash; the deeper you go, the lower the income but downside protection is higher

ideally, you want to sell where delta is approaching 0 (the lower it is, the more sleep you have coz market swings don't bother you)

you net more if you leg in (buy stock at dip, sell cc at peak) instead of buying a "covered stock"

https://optionstradingiq.com/selling-deep-in-the-money-covered-calls/

 

[Yoona]

Thats a great helpful visual! Can you kindly share that TradingView tab so we can duplicate it on our end?

View attachment 1043506

View attachment 1043507

Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView

Interactive financial charts for analysis and generating trading ideas on TradingView!

www.tradingview.com

 

[Jim Holder]

EW update:

Retrace support for a corrective pullback to keep the pressure for higher is between 38.2% ($173.34) and 61.8% ($159.24). If after it can then clear $207 it adds confirmation for bullish (blue) continuation. Otherwise the red "trap door" count may take over:

 

[Jim Holder]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PxscLqd7/

Works! Really cool.

 

[tivoboy]

View attachment 1043562

this most recent gap up, and then failure to hold and lower low than the initial gap - is not a healthy doji/dojo/domo/grey poupon

We’ve seen gaps like this before and they have nearly always failed to hold, and have led to a newer recent/near term low - before being able to stabilize and proceed higher.

Without spinning up my commodore64 and charting it out, I think somewhere between 125-150 is going to be reached before a real bottom and reference-able base can form.

 

[Jim Holder]

this most recent gap up, and then failure to hold and lower low than the initial gap - is not a healthy doji/dojo/domo/grey poupon

100%

Gap up and run to $198 was a crazy anomaly/short squeeze/lacked structure. TSLA needs to find a clean range and establish a healthy structure. Dunno if it can.

But oddly next week looks crazy bullish on the GEX side, not sure what to make of it. Maybe exit liquidity grab and we should ditch as well if we see $200-$207

 

[tivoboy]

100%

Gap up and run to $198 was a crazy anomaly/short squeeze/no structure. TSLA needs to find a clean range and establish a healthy structure. Dunno if it can.

But oddly next week looks crazy bullish on the GEX side, not sure what to make of it, maybe exit liquidity grab and we should ditch as well if we see $200-$207?

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View attachment 1043570

Remember futureguy? $185, all that GEX attraction up there what 2-3 weeks ago… we hit a new low. If the pattern always worked, none of us would be here.

After the week we had, I’m not surprised there is a lot of net GEX up above $190-210… that was trajectory just what 60 hours ago? No REAL reason for it, but we got the short squeeze and MM still need to send their kids to Sidwell (ok, they don’t go there) so selling calls HIGHER to poor schlubbs makes sense. Maybe Houdini is going to pull another rabbit out of his hat, or maybe fire another 5000 employees and tell us they all don’t get severance so the savings will accrue immediately.

I’m ok if we get there (well, not more firings just for firing sake), but I’ll close out the position if we do.

 

[Jim Holder]

THAT
WAS
CRAZY!

Sadly (and somewhat predictable) MM and other large positions holders just wanted to get clear, 2-5% higher.. so thesis intact.

Interesting take on today’s action FWIW:

Implied Volatility Crush Sends Stocks Higher As Usual During the Fed Announcement

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press conference volatility crush, and that it could send stocks higher, I still get messages and questions about why the market rallied and how the market is taking Powell has "dovish" blah, blah, blah.

Amazingly, the volatility crush started on time, and the S&P 500 rallied as expected. So it wasn't that the market thought Powell was dovish; it was just that implied volatility melted. Once the volatility crush was over, the sellers came back in and took all of the gains away.

The key takeaway today seems to be that the Fed has no idea when it will be able to cut rates. Powell seems hopeful the policy will be tight enough to bring inflation back to target. If the market helps him and tightens financial conditions, it may be. If the market doesn't tigthen financial conditions, then policy probably isn't tight enough.

Today's ISM prices paid index didn't suggest that goods inflation is easing. It rose to 60.9, much higher than the estimates for 55.4. It wasn't a surprise, and it probably suggests an uptick in m/m CPI for April.

​

At least at this point, the market doesn't see the first rate cut until December, and at some point, all the sell-side analysts still looking for the cut in July or September will pivot to a later date for the rate cut.

​

However, 10-year rates refused to move higher today, and the case for rates to move higher will probably have to wait until the Jobs report at this point for that to happen potentially. Positioning around the FOMC meeting didn't allow for that to happen today.

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The dollar index fell today after the BOJ decided to intervene in the FX market again, driving the USDJPY sharply lower. At least they seemed to get a lot of bang for their buck this time around, waiting until 4 PM ET, when liquidity starts to thin out in the FX market.

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I wouldn't call today's drop a break of the bear flag, but it was close, and we need to follow through tomorrow. If the bear flag is broken, then the sell-off in the market should intensify, and the pace of the decline should start to pick up.

​

https://mottcapitalmanagement.com/i...s-higher-as-usual-during-the-fed-annoucement/

 

[tivoboy]

​

The dollar index fell today after the BOJ decided to intervene in the FX market again, driving the USDJPY sharply lower. At least they seemed to get a lot of bang for their buck this time around, waiting until 4 PM ET, when liquidity starts to thin out in the FX market.

​

I wouldn't call today's drop a break of the bear flag, but it was close, and we need to follow through tomorrow. If the bear flag is broken, then the sell-off in the market should intensify, and the pace of the decline should start to pick up.

​

https://mottcapitalmanagement.com/i...s-higher-as-usual-during-the-fed-annoucement/

I do NOT see the 10 yr regaining 5%, or 4.95%, but I did see it going back over 4.3%,,,and well here we are ~ 4.6%.. I think we could top tick again at ~ 4.7% (with some stretch built in) but higher most likely not for more than a day.

 

[BornToFly]

I took delivery today. There were a bunch in the lot that were going to be picked up after mine. Panels all good. There was a little tear in the interior that they are going to replace, and a rubber seal on the tonneau cover that needs fixing. Panels were all excellent. Driving is a trip. You get in and think I can't drive something this big, only to have it turn like a go kart. Really fun. I didn't think my wife would like it because it is so big, but she was grinning ear to ear and said it drives WAY better than her Model X. It is super tight and quiet. No vibrations or rattles. Very little wind noise. They are going to sell millions of these.